Hochul leads Stefanik by shrinking margins in potential race for governor

Yahoo

11 hours ago

Aug. 12—Rep. Elise M. Stefanik is closing the polling gap with Gov. Kathleen C. Hochul as she continues to weigh running for the job next year.
According to the latest Siena College Research Institute poll, released Tuesday, Hochul still does better than Stefanik in a one-on-one contest, but the 23-point gap between the two potential candidates recorded in June has shrunk to 14 percentage points. If the election were today and the only two options are Stefanik and Hochul, 45% of voters said they would pick Hochul and 31% said they would pick Stefanik.
The north country congresswoman, a Republican, has improved her name recognition among the New York voting base. Now, just about 59% of voters report having some opinion of her and 41% report no opinion or no familiarity with the congresswoman ― compared to past polls that have shown she was known to less than 30% of the voting base across the state. Now, 27% of voters have a positive opinion of Stefanik and 32% have an unfavorable view of her. Stefanik does best among upstate residents and Republicans, and worst with New York City residents and Democrats.
Hochul, a Democrat, is continuing a trend of middling favorability ratings: 42% of New York voters like her, 44% do not, and 14% don't know of her or have no clear opinion. Hochul does best with Democrats and New York City residents, and pulls a 37% favorable, 52% unfavorable rating from upstate residents. On job approval, Hochul does better with 53% of voters saying they approve of the work she has done as governor and 42% reporting they disapprove.
"While the governor can trumpet her best job approval rating since March 2023, there is little doubt that Stefanik will highlight that more than a year out from a potential match-up, Hochul's lead over Stefanik is only 14 points," said SCRI pollster Steven Greenberg.
"Hochul doesn't hit 'the magic 51% mark'" Greenberg continued. "More than two-thirds of Democrats are with Hochul and three-quarters of Republicans are with Stefanik. Independents are closely divided, leaning towards Stefanik, after favoring Hochul in June."
Greenberg noted that while NYC voters are firmly with Hochul, downstate suburban voters have shifted their loyalties and now narrowly favor Stefanik. Upstate, voters before had given Hochul a 12 percentage point lead in previous polls, but now are roughly evenly divided.
"Stefanik clearly has room to grow with voters, either positively or negatively. While 49% of voters say they are very or somewhat familiar with her, 46% are not very or not at all familiar with Stefanik," Greenberg said. "Republicans think she has the right experience to be Governor, Democrats don't and independents are closely divided."
Stefanik took a victory lap over the poll results, sharing a link on social media to a news report about the poll.
"The worst governor in America is losing independents, cratering support and in political free fall in the latest Siena polling," Stefanik said. "We will continue to work hard to earn your support to Save NY."
Stefanik has not yet formally declared a campaign for the governor's office, now 15 months away from the 2026 election. The last Republican to run for the seat, current EPA Administrator Lee M. Zeldin, had announced more than 16 months before the 2022 election where he came the closest to any Republican in a generation to winning the seat. Zeldin also had a four-way primary to contend with. Republicans have taken great efforts to avoid a primary for their pick this year, and the other potential nominees have since dropped out or stepped back since Stefanik started talking seriously about a run.
While voters are warming to Stefanik, they're not happy about a bill she claimed to be the deciding vote to pass: the "One Big Beautiful Bill" that advanced a heap of Trump administration priorities including tax changes, spending cuts and a wide-ranging reorientation of the federal government.
According to the SCRI polls, a majority of voters in New York are concerned that the bill and the Medicaid cuts it enacts will hurt or close rural hospitals in New York. Those concerns, driven by reports and statements from hospitals saying that a reduction in Medicaid coverage will mean more unpaid work done in emergency rooms and intensive care units, reach a majority of Democrats, independents and Republicans alike, and every region of the state.
"At least 63% of voters from every region of the state are concerned about closures," Greenberg said.
The "One Big Beautiful Bill" includes language that will penalize New York and other states if they choose to continue to use their own state funds to offer emergency Medicaid coverage to immigrants, documented or undocumented. The penalty will cut the funds the federal government provides for Medicaid expansion to U.S. citizens, essentially cutting U.S. citizens off of their health care if their state opts to spend its own money to insure immigrants.
The SCRI poll asked voters if they approve of New York dedicating another $3 billion to Medicaid for "illegal" immigrants in the face of the federal penalties. Republicans and independents were opposed, and a plurality, rather than a majority, of Democrats approved. The issue is more evenly divided by age than party; voters younger than 35 broadly support providing health care to immigrants while a vast majority of voters older than 55 are opposed.
As a result of the "One Big Beautiful Bill" and its Medicaid cuts, the state is reportedly coming in about $750 million short on revenue to meet expenses this year, and $3 billion next year. According to the SCRI poll, a majority of Republicans and independents support cutting services to close the gap, while a plurality of Democrats say the answer is to raise taxes.
"With the state budget a long way away, neither side as yet made a convincing argument to voters on how to close any potential gap from federal funding cuts in the BBB," Greenberg said.
The SCRI poll also asked voters their take on a handful of policy proposals on the table in Albany and Washington, D.C. A vast majority support a proposal to require retail establishments and food sellers to take cash, reversing the push to cashless operations. Another proposal at the federal level to send funds to local police departments to provide child care options for officers has support from 60% of voters.
A majority, 60%, including a majority of Republicans, Democrats and independents, back a new state law now in effect that requires school districts implement a cellphone ban for students for the entire school day.
A majority of state voters approve of a state law that permits New York-based doctors to prescribe abortion medication to out-of-state residents, and provide only the patient's name and the pharmacy on official documentation. The law is intended to protect state doctors from other state abortion bans that make it a crime for doctors to prescribe abortion drugs. While 54% of New York voters approve, including a majority of Democrats and a plurality of independents, a majority of Republicans are opposed to the law.
A plurality of voters, and a plurality Republicans, Democrats and independents approve of Hochul's recent announcement that the state is looking to build a gigawatt of new nuclear energy in upstate New York.
Voters are heavily split on the most recent policy out of Albany. Hochul and Democratic legislative leaders have floated an amendment to the state constitution that would weaken or destroy the Independent Redistricting Commission tasked with drawing the state's legislative and congressional district lines once per decade. The amendment would allow state lawmakers to redraw the state's congressional maps mid-decade, without a new federal census, if another state in the U.S. also does so.
The amendment comes as a response to efforts by the Republican party to gerrymander states like Texas to add reliable Republican districts and secure their majority, which many predict the Republicans will lose next year.
Last week, Hochul hosted a handful of Texas Democrats who fled their state in an attempt to block the redistricting legislation, and said she'd be looking to put such an amendment on the table as soon as possible, which would be 2027 at the earliest.
Sen. Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., has hit his lowest ever favorability rating, tracking back to February of 2005, pulling in a 38% positive rating. For the first time in his political career, Schumer has lost the support of his native New York City, with 39% of voters reporting a negative outlook on him.
Sen. Kirsten E. Gillibrand, D-N.Y., is also pulling in negative ratings; just 36% of people report a positive outlook on the junior senator, compared to 38% who disapprove of her.
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