China banks cut deposit rates to aid margins, drive spending
MAJOR Chinese banks cut deposit rates again, in the latest efforts to preserve their shrinking profitability and drive consumers to spend more amid a flagging economy.
Lenders including the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China and China Merchants Bank trimmed rates across maturities on Tuesday (May 20). One- and two-year fixed deposit rates fell by 15 basis points, according to official announcements and updates on their mobile apps. Rates on three- and five-year deposits were slashed by 25 basis points.
The cuts on the country's more than 300 trillion yuan (S$54 trillion) of deposits came as the recent package of government measures to stimulate the world's second-largest economy has further squeezed bank profits. China earlier this month reduced its policy lending rate as it ramped up efforts to help an economy caught in a second trade war with the US.
Meanwhile, Chinese banks also lowered their one-year and five-year loan prime rates (LPRs) – a benchmark for their best customers – by 10 basis points on Tuesday, a move in line with market expectations. That brought the one-year LPR, the reference for corporate loans, down to 3 per cent, and the five-year LPR, which is the benchmark for mortgages, down to 3.5 per cent.
Chinese lenders embarked on their deposit rate cut cycle in late 2022 with a broad-based reduction, the first since 2015, after authorities urged them to boost lending. They have followed with more cuts since then in an attempt to salvage record-low margins amid weakened profitability. Two-year deposit rates have been more than halved.
After Tuesday's reduction, the one-year rate on time deposit of major banks stands at 0.95 per cent, while their two-year rates are at 1.05 per cent. Their three and five-year rates are at 1.25 per cent and 1.3 per cent, respectively.
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Chinese banks wealth management products gained inflows in the second quarter as clients moved money out of bank deposits into assets with higher return potential, according to a report by Shanghai Securities News on Tuesday.
Total assets of fixed-income and cash management products in the market increased 8.4 per cent and 7.9 per cent, respectively, from the end of the first quarter, the report said, citing data from PY Standard as at May 19.
Driven by persistent state efforts to push down borrowing costs, China's 10-year government bond yield has fallen steadily in the past few years to about 1.66 per cent, around a record low.
Highlighting the challenges facing the economy despite a quick de-escalation of trade tensions with the US, the latest economic data showed China's industrial output expanded faster than expected in April while consumption disappointed. That pointed to the need for more supportive policies as economists warn of complacency after a 90-day pause on tariffs.
China's prolonged property crisis, deflationary pressure and worries about unemployment are weighing on confidence among households. BLOOMBERG
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AsiaOne
24 minutes ago
- AsiaOne
China-backed militia secures control of new rare earth mines in Myanmar, World News
BANGKOK — A Chinese-backed militia is protecting new rare earth mines in eastern Myanmar, according to four people familiar with the matter, as Beijing moves to secure control of the minerals it is wielding as a bargaining chip in its trade war with Washington. China has a near-monopoly over the processing of heavy rare earths into magnets that power critical goods like wind turbines, medical devices and electric vehicles. But Beijing is heavily reliant on Myanmar for the rare earth metals and oxides needed to produce them: the war-torn country was the source of nearly half those imports in the first four months of this year, Chinese customs data show. Beijing's access to fresh stockpiles of minerals like dysprosium and terbium has been throttled recently after a major mining belt in Myanmar's north was taken over by an armed group battling the Southeast Asian country's junta, which Beijing supports. Now, in the hillsides of Shan state in eastern Myanmar, Chinese miners are opening new deposits for extraction, according to two of the sources, both of whom work at one of the mines. At least 100 people are working day-to-night shifts excavating hillsides and extracting minerals using chemicals, the sources said. Two other residents of the area said they had witnessed trucks carrying material from the mines, between the towns of Mong Hsat and Mong Yun, toward the Chinese border some 200km away. Reuters identified some of the sites using imagery from commercial satellite providers Planet Labs and Maxar Technologies. Business records across Myanmar are poorly maintained and challenging to access, and Reuters could not independently identify the ownership of the mines. The mines operate under the protection of the United Wa State Army (UWSA), according to four sources, two of whom were able to identify the uniforms of the militia members. The UWSA, which is among the biggest armed groups in Shan state, also controls one of the world's largest tin mines. It has long-standing commercial and military links with China, according to the US Institute of Peace (USIP), a conflict resolution non-profit. Details of the militia's role and the export route of the rare earths are reported by Reuters for the first time. University of Manchester lecturer Patrick Meehan, who has closely studied Myanmar's rare earth industry and reviewed satellite imagery of the Shan mines, said the "mid-large size" sites appeared to be the first significant facilities in the country outside the Kachin region in the north. "There is a whole belt of rare earths that goes down through Kachin, through Shan, parts of Laos," he said. China's Ministry of Commerce, as well as the UWSA and the junta, did not respond to Reuters' questions. Access to rare earths is increasingly important to Beijing, which tightened restrictions on its exports of metals and magnets after US President Donald Trump resumed his trade war with China this year. While China appears to have recently approved more exports and Trump has signalled progress in resolving the dispute, the move has upended global supply chains central to automakers, aerospace manufacturers and semiconductor companies. The price of terbium oxide has jumped by over 27 per cent across the last six months, Shanghai Metals Market data show. Dysprosium oxide prices have fluctuated sharply, rising around one per cent during the same period. Chinese influence A prominent circular clearing first appears in the forested hills of Shan state, some 30km away from the Thai border, in April 2023, according to the satellite images reviewed by Reuters. By February 2025 — shortly after the Kachin mines suspended work — the site housed over a dozen leaching pools, which are ponds typically used to extract heavy rare earths, the images showed. Six km away, across the Kok river, another forest clearing was captured in satellite imagery from May 2024. Within a year, it had transformed into a facility with 20 leaching pools. Minerals analyst David Merriman, who reviewed two of the Maxar images for Reuters, said the infrastructure at the Shan mines, as well as observable erosion levels to the topography, indicated that the facilities "have been producing for a little bit already". At least one of the mines is run by a Chinese company using Chinese-speaking managers, according to the two mine workers and two members of the Shan Human Rights Foundation (SHRF), an advocacy group that identified the existence of the operations in a May report using satellite imagery. An office at one of the two sites also had a company logo written in Chinese characters, said one of the workers, who spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters. The use of Chinese operators in the Shan mines and transportation of the output to China mirrors a similar system in Kachin, where entire hillsides stand scarred by leaching pools. Chinese mining firms can produce heavy rare earth oxides in low-cost and loosely regulated Myanmar seven times cheaper than in other regions with similar deposits, said Neha Mukherjee of London-based Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. "Margins are huge". Beijing tightly controls the technology that allows for the efficient extraction of heavy rare earths, and she said that it would be difficult to operate a facility in Myanmar without Chinese assistance. The satellite imagery suggest the Shan mines are smaller than their Kachin counterparts but they are likely to yield the same elements, according to Merriman, who serves as research director at consultancy Project Blue. "The Shan State deposits will have terbium and dysprosium in them, and they will be the main elements that (the miners) are targeting there," he said. Strategic tool The UWSA oversees a remote statelet the size of Belgium and, according to US prosecutors, has long prospered from the drug trade. It has a long-standing ceasefire with the junta but still maintains a force of between 30,000 and 35,000 personnel, equipped with modern weaponry mainly sourced from China, according to Ye Myo-hein, a senior fellow at the Southeast Asia Peace Institute. "The UWSA functions as a key instrument for China to maintain strategic leverage along the Myanmar-China border and exert influence over other ethnic armed groups," he said. Some of those fighters are also closely monitoring the mining area, said SHRF member Leng Harn. "People cannot freely go in and out of the area without ID cards issued by UWSA." Shan state has largely kept out of the protracted civil war, in which an assortment of armed groups are battling the junta. The fighting has also roiled the Kachin mining belt and pushed many Chinese operators to cease work. China has repeatedly said that it seeks stability in Myanmar, where it has significant investments. Beijing has intervened to halt fighting in some areas near its border. "The Wa have had now 35 years with no real conflict with the Myanmar military," said USIP's Myanmar country director Jason Towers. "Chinese companies and the Chinese government would see the Wa areas as being more stable than other parts of northern Burma." The bet on Shan's rare earths deposit could provide more leverage to China amid a global scramble for the critical minerals, said Benchmark's Mukherjee. "If there's so much disruption happening in Kachin, they would be looking for alternative sources," she said. "They want to keep the control of heavy rare earths in their hands. They use that as a strategic tool." [[nid:713792]]
Business Times
2 hours ago
- Business Times
China stocks soar on AI, US-China trade hopes. Who are the country's ‘Terrific Ten' firms?
[SINGAPORE] Chinese stocks have see-sawed since late last year, as investors reacted to factors ranging from government stimulus, artificial intelligence and Trump tariffs. The Asian giant's companies had experienced a lengthy bear market in the last few years, with investors flocking to US markets. Last October, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also plummeted sharply after investors' hopes of a long-awaited rebound were left wanting following a disappointing stimulus announcement from Beijing in October. In the second quarter of 2025, the script flipped. While the US faces renewed trade uncertainty and market volatility over tariffs, Chinese equities are staging a resurgence, led by what some analysts are now calling the 'Terrific Ten': tech and consumer giants listed mostly in Hong Kong, who are witnessing a revival in investor sentiment. The conclusion of consensus on a trade framework between the US and China this week also gave a boost to Chinese stocks, although some gains were pared after US President Donald Trump said he would unveil unilateral tariff rates within two weeks. The S&P 500, much of it driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' technology giants, has risen just over 2 per cent year-to-date. On the other hand, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index, which tracks the 30 largest technology companies listed in Hong Kong (including seven of the Terrific Ten) has surged around 24 per cent in the same period. In the last couple of months, global banks HSBC, Morgan Stanley, Citibank and Goldman Sachs all upgraded Chinese equities to overweight, many citing attractive valuations among technology stocks and strategic government support for the tech sector. Much of the rally's momentum has also been carried by artificial intelligence-led optimism, reminiscent of the artificial intelligence (AI)-boom in 2024 that led to the strong performance of the Magnificent Seven stocks. To some, China's technological potential is no longer perceived as merely capitalising on 'one to n' capabilities – i.e. reproducing existing innovations at scale – but has showcased its capabilities to create 'zero to one' innovation from the ground up. 'DeepSeek's advancements underscore the immense potential of China's AI ecosystem,' said Terence Lim, equities portfolio manager at Eastspring Investments Singapore in a report. 'Many companies are not only innovating rapidly but also trading at much more attractive valuations compared to their US counterparts.' Morgan Stanley upgraded its outlook on China to overweight, based on earnings beat for MSCI China companies after four straight years of quarterly misses. While the fallout from Trump's latest tariffs is likely to quell global growth significantly, strong corporate earnings may mean that the 'Terrific Ten' remain resilient in the coming months. We bucket the Ten into three categories – internet giants, e-commerce and consumer goods, and electric vehicles – and discuss upcoming trends to watch. Internet giants: Tencent, NetEase, Baidu, SMIC China's internet tech companies have moved quickly to capitalise on the 'DeepSeek effect'. Tencent, for instance, has incorporated DeepSeek's R1 model into its 'AI Search' functions within Weixin, as well as rolling out an upgraded iteration of its proprietary Hunyuan T1 model. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The digital ecosystem giant, which operates WeChat and its mainland equivalent Weixin, has seen its share price surge 24 per cent since the beginning of the year. Also in this bucket is China's largest semiconductor foundry SMIC, which has surged nearly 40 per cent year-to-date, driven by the AI hype and a government push for self-sufficiency in chip production. However, potential chip tariffs from the US may slow its runaway share price. Others include gaming operator NetEase, and the search engine provider Baidu, both of whom have yet to truly achieve lasting growth through AI adoption. While each has expanded into adjacent areas – music streaming in NetEase's case, and autonomous driving for Baidu – neither has managed to step out from the shadow of dominant rivals like Tencent and Alibaba. Yet, relatively cheap earnings multiples compared to China's other tech giants may support their bull cases. E-commerce and consumer goods: Alibaba, JD, Meituan, Xiaomi Standing tallest among the AI-driven resurgence of Chinese stocks is Alibaba, the e-commerce giant founded by Jack Ma. In addition to its main e-commerce platforms Taobao and Tmall, Alibaba has emerged as a leader in the cloud computing space. Its Nasdaq-listed shares have soared on the company's commitments to boost AI spending and the unveiling of its open-source AI model Qwen 2.5 in early March. Analysts also see the company as having quietly buried the hatchet with Beijing after regulatory crackdowns since 2020, aligning with broader state efforts to stimulate domestic consumption. Meituan, however, has analysts feeling mixed. The food delivery giant has seen strong fundamental growth in the past year, with total revenue growing 22 per cent to 338 billion yuan (S$60.3 billion). Yet the stock has lost around 4 per cent year-to-date, underperforming the 24 per cent rise in the Hang Seng Tech Index over the same period. Still, planned expansions of its overseas meal delivery service Keeta in the Middle East and Hong Kong, as well as plans to integrate AI into its work processes, could see the Hong Kong-listed stock rebound. Xiaomi, meanwhile, has drawn attention with a 90 per cent earnings growth in Q4 2024, its fastest since 2021. The smartphone maker has been actively repositioning itself as a broader Internet of Things ecosystem player, with growing bets on smart devices and AI integration. But it is the company's aggressive push into electric vehicles (EVs) that has sparked the most interest. Electric Vehicles: BYD, Geely, Xiaomi China's EV crown remains with BYD, the Warren Buffett-backed automaker that is quickly emerging as a global competitor to market leader Tesla. The company sold over four million new energy vehicles in 2024, overtaking Tesla in global EV sales revenue. BYD has ramped up AI-assisted driving features and continues to expand overseas into Europe, Southeast Asia and South America. Trailing BYD's market dominance is a crowded pool of automakers competing for second place, including Geely and the aforementioned Xiaomi. Geely sold a respectable 2.18 million vehicles in 2024, pushing sales revenue up 34 per cent from the previous year and beating profit estimates. Meanwhile, Xiaomi's US$5.5 billion fundraising in March for EV investments has cemented its commitment to take on BYD and Tesla in the EV game. The company plans to open its second EV factory in Beijing in mid-2025, raising its sales target to 350,000 vehicles in 2025. Caution beneath the hype However, continued strong performance of Chinese tech stocks is not a given. While the 'Terrific Ten' may reflect genuine innovation and recovery – especially in AI, EVs, and digital platforms – confidence in a sustained turnaround hinges on policy clarity and macro stability. Morgan Stanley chief China economist Robin Xing said that recent memories of regulatory crackdowns, structural deleveraging and deflationary pressures have left a deep imprint on investors, while recent tariffs may cause further downside for Chinese equities. The tariffs may prompt Beijing to accelerate its planned RMB 2 trillion yuan stimulus package sooner than expected. 'That said, this may only partly offset the tariff shock,' Xing noted.
Business Times
2 hours ago
- Business Times
Airbus revises up 20-year jet demand forecast despite trade tensions
[PARIS] Airbus revised up its forecast for airplane demand over the next 20 years on Thursday, telling investors and suppliers the air transport industry was expected to ride out the current wave of trade tensions. The European planemaker said it expected the industry it and its US rival Boeing dominate to deliver 43,420 commercial jets between 2025 and 2044, an increase of 2 per cent from its previous rolling 20-year forecast issued a year ago. That includes 42,450 passenger jets, up 2 per cent from the previous forecast, and 970 factory-built freighters, up 3 per cent. Airbus stuck to its previous projection that air traffic would grow on average by 3.6 per cent a year, despite chopping half a percentage point off its forecast for annual growth in trade to 2.6 per cent and shaving its projection for global GDP growth slightly to 2.5 per cent. 'There is certainly some turbulence thanks to the recent geopolitical and trade situation,' Antonio Da Costa, vice-president for market analysis and forecast, told reporters. 'It is still very early days... nevertheless the early signals are giving us some level of hope.' BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up The aerospace industry has been roiled by US tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump and the prospect of reprisals by the European Union, as well as wild swings in punitive duties exchanged between the US and China. US and Chinese officials agreed on Tuesday on ways to restore a trade truce and roll back duelling restrictions. Airbus officials said the latest forecasts assume that base tariffs of 10 per cent imposed by the Trump administration on most imports would stay in place for a while, contrasting this with the deeper disruption threatened by larger punitive tariffs. Air transport, which is closely tied to the economy and rising numbers of middle classes with disposable incomes, has frequently proven itself resilient to shocks, Da Costa said. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury has called for a return to tariff-free trading for aerospace, joining a chorus of US industry leaders in warning of damage from a tariff war. Airbus raised its demand forecast for single-aisle planes like the A320neo family and competing 737 MAX, which account for four out of every five deliveries, by 2 per cent. It expects 34,250 of them over 20 years, of which 56 per cent would be additional capacity. Airbus revised up its forecasts for wide-body passenger jet deliveries by 3 per cent to 8,200 planes. That part of the market for long-haul jets has seen growing demand led by Gulf carriers. REUTERS
