Best Warriors vs. Wolves Player Props, ATS Bets: Shorthanded GSW Eyes Upset
With Stephen Curry sidelined with a hamstring injury, Jimmy Butler and the Warriors are heavy underdogs on the road in Minnesota on Thursday night.
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An already intriguing series between the Warriors (7) and Timberwolves (6) will be missing superstar Stephen Curry for the next couple of games, but that doesn't make the next couple matchups in the Western Conference Semifinals any less interesting.
Curry, who poured in 13 points in just 13 minutes, exited Game 1 on Wednesday night for good with his team up 30-20 with 8:19 remaining in the second quarter.
Read more Warriors' Stephen Curry Ruled Out for Game 2 With Significant Injury
The Warriors managed to outscore the Wolves 69-68 the rest of the way thanks to an outstanding defensive effort. Still, there's no denying that they won't be the same team without Curry, who is expected to miss at least the next three games, according to the AP's Dave Campbell.
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Series Winner Odds
Despite the possibility of Curry missing nearly half of this series, the Warriors are not exactly massive underdogs to advance entering Game 2.
Their +160 odds at DK as of Thursday morning carry an implied probability of 38.5 percent. FD's +172 odds give them an implied 36.8 percent chance of winning this series.
DraftKings : GSW +160; MIN -190
: GSW +160; MIN -190 FanDuel: GSW +172; MIN -205
Warriors vs. Timberwolves Game 2 Odds
DK FD bet365 GSW spread +10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) +10.5 (-110) MIN spread -10.5 (-110) -10.5 (-110) -10 (-110) GSW ML +370 +385 +400 MIN ML -485 -500 -550 Total 201 (o-110; u-110) 201.5 (o-108; u-112) 201.5 (o-110; u-110)
How to Watch Warriors vs. Wolves Game 2
Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
Channel: TNT/truTV/Max
Warriors vs. Wolves Game 2 Player Props
Brandin Podziemski 3+ Made Threes (+180 at FD) -- 0.75 units
Even if Golden State manages to defend at the level it did in Game 1, the question of who will pick up Curry's scoring slack is a massive one.
In Game 1, it was Buddy Hield (24 points on 5-for-8 3-point shooting) and Draymond Green (18 points on 4-for-10 3-point shooting) who stepped up. The Warriors also got 20 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists from Jimmy Butler, but he'll need to improve on his 7-for-20 FG shooting (2-for-8 from 3) for Golden State to stay afloat in Curry's absence.
Tonight, while Butler is certainly tempting in multiple prop markets (even at lines that clearly factor in how much his role is about to increase), Brandin Podziemski offers the most upside.
The second-year guard out of Santa Clara has been a capable 3-point shooter throughout his first two seasons. He shot 38.5 percent from 3 as a rookie on 3.2 3PA per game. This year, he shot 37.2 percent from 3 on 4.8 3PA per game.
In the playoffs, he's struggled a bit from downtown (he's just under 33 percent from 3 through 8 games this postseason), including 2-for-12 over his last two games.
But he still made multiple treys in four of seven games vs. the Rockets in the first round, including a 3-for-8 performance in Game 1 of that series and a 6-for-11 night in Game 4.
Amid heavy attention on Butler, Green and Hield (the latter is 14-for-19 from 3 over his last two games), Podziemski should get plenty of clean looks tonight. He's a good enough career shooter to offer a ton of value at nearly 2-to-1 to knock down at least three triples.
Another reason to like Podziemski tonight is how he fared in 10 games this year where he was in the lineup but Curry was not.
Brandin Podziemski 3-Point Shooting Without Stephen Curry
Number of Games 3PT Shooting (percent) Made 3P/3PA (per game) Without Butler 7 13/41 (31.7) 1.86/5.86 With Butler 3 11/21 (52.4) 3.67/7
The sample size of Podziemski in "post-Butler trade games without Curry" is limited but nevertheless encouraging.
In those three contests -- March 18 vs. MIL, March 22 vs. ATL, March 25 vs. MIA -- Podziemski went 4-for-7, 5-for-8 and 2-for-6 from 3-point land, with his 3-point volume in those games (7 3PA per game) just as encouraging as his efficiency.
And for what it's worth, in three regular-season games vs. Minnesota this year, he made 6 of his 12 3-point attempts.
With all this in mind, is it just me, or is a quarter-unit or so on Podziemski 4+ Made Threes at +470 at FanDuel also tempting tonight?
Warriors vs. Wolves Game 2 Pick, Best Bets
Hot take: I don't see Anthony Edwards and Co. letting a Curry-less version of Golden State win back-to-back games on their home floor.
The Wolves are one more awful 3-point shooting performance from "Can these guys shoot well enough to stay alive?" territory. Game 1 of this series marked their third sub-20 percent 3-point shooting night in six playoff games.
But assuming Minnesota, which was top-five in the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage in the regular season at 37.7, can avoid another ice-cold night from outside, it should be able to even the series at 1-1.
Still, I'm not comfortable backing a team that posted a true shooting percentage of 47.1 and an effective FG percentage of 42.4 to blow out a veteran Warriors squad with few defensive liabilities.
The under would be tempting at a higher number, but Under 201 is a little rich for my blood.
So let's take the Warriors to cover as 10.5-point dogs on a big night by Butler and Podziemski.
Warriors vs. Wolves Game 2 Best Bets:
Warriors +10.5 (-110 at DK, FD, bet365)
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