Monday briefing: What you need to know about the underreported bird flu crisis

The Guardian

17-02-2025

Good morning.
Picture this: you're in a supermarket looking for breakfast bits or something easy for lunch. You wander over to the egg aisle, scan the prices, and think: what is going on?
In the UK, egg prices have, in some cases, risen by nearly 20% since the start of the year, according to The Grocer's analysis of Assosia data.
Across the Atlantic, the price of eggs has become such an issue that it's practically a culture war battleground. In a press conference last August, Donald Trump – flanked by packaged foods, meats, condiments, milk and eggs – declared that he'd tackle the crisis on day one of his presidency.
The inflationary rise in egg prices is down to bird flu. The virus is rapidly depleting poultry stocks, as farms are required to cull entire flocks if even a single bird tests positive. According to data from the US agriculture department, more than 22m birds have been affected in the last 30 days alone.
The UK has been designated an avian influenza prevention zone, effectively placing birds in their own version of lockdown. In England and Wales, bird 'gatherings' have been banned.
But this isn't just about whether you can have a fried egg with your breakfast. The virus has spread beyond poultry, infecting other wildlife and dozens of people in North America, even killing one person. The first human case in England was detected last month. Scientists still say the risk of a widespread human outbreak remains low, but the virus is hitting milestones – and wreaking havoc on wildlife.
Today's newsletter breaks down the impact of avian flu and how worried humans should be. That's right after the headlines.
Ukraine | Keir Starmer has said he is prepared to put British troops on the ground in Ukraine if there is a deal to end the war with Russia – acknowledging it could put UK forces 'in harm's way'. It is understood to be the first time the prime minister has explicitly stated he is considering deploying British peacekeepers to Ukraine. The comments came just before emergency talks with European leaders in Paris on Monday.
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The H5N1 subtype of avian flu has been around for decades, and was first identified in southern China in 1996. It primarily infected poultry, only occasionally jumping to wild birds. When it did, the virus often killed them quickly, limiting its ability to spread globally.
That changed in 2020 with the emergence of a new strain – one that could sustain itself in wild bird populations year-round, including during the spring, when birds gather in high densities. Within two years, thousands were dying worldwide, with cases detected in Peru, Israel and the UK.
So far, more than 500 bird species have been infected, along with at least 70 mammal species. Below, we look at the fallout.
Agriculture effects
Bird flu was first detected in cattle in March 2024, which was a surprise for scientists. While pasteurised milk remains safe to consume, raw milk is a different story. It surged in popularity last year among sections of the anti-vaccine 'Make America Healthy Again' wing of Trump's movement (spearheaded by the recently confirmed health secretary, Robert F Kennedy Jr), because of baseless claims that it could 'advance human health'. In reality, raw milk can contain high levels of the virus, making transmission far easier.
Beyond the health risks, bird flu is dealing a devastating economic blow to farmers. In regions where poultry is a primary source of protein, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization has warned that avian influenza poses a 'serious threat to food and nutrition security'.
According to the UN, hundreds of millions of people's livelihoods have already been affected. The financial pressure on farmers may leave them unable to invest in proper biosafety measures, further exacerbating the crisis.
The impact on wildlife
Since 2021, 280m wild birds have died from the virus – but there are tens of thousands more casualties. In Argentina, 17,000 southern elephant seal pups perished, wiping out nearly an entire generation of seals. More than 20,000 South American sea lions have died in Chile and Peru.
Even domestic animals haven't been spared – a small but growing number of house cats in the US have fallen ill. The virus has also reached zoos, endangering rare and vulnerable species. Between August and October last year, 47 tigers, three lions, and a panther died in Vietnamese zoos.
Are humans in danger?
In the US, 68 people have been infected so far – most of them experienced mild symptoms. However, as the virus continues to jump between species, emerging data suggests that certain variants could cause severe illness and even death, particularly when transmitted directly from birds to humans.
Scientists warn that cross-species pandemics are on the rise. As one expert told the Guardian's biodiversity reporter Phoebe Weston: 'There is a fair body of work now demonstrating that most human viruses are zoonotic [of animal origin].' For more background on the drivers behind bird flu, Phoebe has written about how biodiversity loss and the climate crisis are driving the increase in infectious disease outbreaks, making them more frequent, widespread and dangerous.
Meanwhile, the political landscape in the US has only added to concerns. Trump's decision to pull the country out of the World Health Organization – an agency that coordinates global health responses and facilitates data sharing – has alarmed researchers.
Compared with 10 months ago, the virus now has 'a tonne more opportunities' to adapt to mammal hosts, thanks to its rapid spread among cows and other animals across the US, one expert told the weekly scientific journal Nature.
Bird flu may never escalate into a pandemic or become a major threat to humans. But as a UN pandemic expert cautioned: 'We must remember that this can change quickly, as the virus is evolving – and we must be prepared for such a scenario.'
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