Shift in oil market dynamics as Opec+ hikes output

Khaleej Times

01-04-2025

As the voluntary oil production limits imposed by Opec+ officially expired on Tuesday, member countries are expected to significantly ramp up output.
il market experts predict that this decision will likely lead to further declines in oil prices, which have already been on a downward trajectory in recent months.
With the conclusion of the current heating season and a stabilisation of driving demand, the global oil market is poised for substantial shifts that could impact consumer prices.
Analyst said the Opec+ decision would lead to alleviating consumer costs amid a market that has seen notable drops in oil prices, providing some relief to consumers who rely on oil for transportation and heating.
In January, Brent crude oil — a key benchmark for European markets — was trading at approximately $82 per barrel. However, prices have since fallen by around 10 per cent, signalling a broader trend that has benefited consumers but raised concerns for oil-producing nations.
The eight oil-exporting countries within the Opec+ coalition, which includes members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) and major producers like Russia, have decided to lift production cuts that were initially intended to stabilise the market. This rollback of a daily production cut of 2.2 million barrels is expected to gradually return production levels to pre-cut figures, analysts said.
Market reactions to Opec+'s announcement have been swift, with oil prices experiencing significant declines earlier in March.
However, as the month progressed, prices rebounded slightly. Experts warn that if Opec+ follows through with its plans to increase production, the anticipated rise in supply may exert further downward pressure on prices. Barbara Lambrecht, a noted commodity expert, emphasised that this increase could create a more favourable pricing environment for consumers in the long run.
What does this mean for consumers? Analysts suggest that while the increase in oil production will eventually impact heating oil prices, immediate changes may not be felt right away, particularly as the heating season in the northern hemisphere comes to a close.
Any significant adjustments in heating oil costs may not emerge until the fall, when demand typically rises again.
As for petrol and diesel prices, the Opec+ decision is expected to produce limited immediate effects at gas stations. Experts caution that while expanded production could lead to lower oil prices, the actual reductions at the pump may only be marginal, dependent on whether oil companies choose to pass along savings to consumers. The end of the heating season could also provide some relief for diesel drivers, as seasonal trends generally indicate a decrease in diesel prices.
Moreover, the implications of US political dynamics on oil prices remain a critical factor. The current US administration has previously expressed a need to lower oil prices to alleviate economic pressures exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
However, experts cautioned that increased production from Opec+ could inadvertently boost Russian oil revenues, particularly if the decline in global prices remains modest.
As the global oil market adjusts to these new dynamics, consumers and industry stakeholders are left to navigate a landscape marked by both opportunities and challenges. The coming months will be crucial in determining how these shifts will ultimately affect oily prices and consumer behaviour, they said.