Tropical Storm Alvin likely to form off Mexico's coast, would become 1st named storm of season: See projected path
The first tropical storm of 2025 is likely to form in the Pacific Ocean, off the southwestern coast of Mexico, by Wednesday evening, according to meteorologists.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in an advisory early Wednesday morning that an 'elongated area of low pressure' was continuing to produce severe showers and thunderstorms as it moves closer to Mexico.
"Environmental conditions remain favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph," the NHC said in a Wednesday morning update.
If this system does become a tropical storm, it will be called Tropical Storm Alvin — the first named tropical storm in the northern hemisphere this year. The NHC gives names to tropical storms and hurricanes to make it easier to identify if multiple storms are happening at once.
The NHC said Wednesday morning there was a 'near 100 percent' chance of it forming into either a tropical depression or a tropical storm within the next 48 hours. A tropical depression is the weakest form of a tropical cyclone with sustained winds up to 38 miles per hour, while a tropical storm is a more advanced stage with winds up to 73 miles per hour.
The tropical rainstorm is expected to continue building as it moves northwest and tracks over the Pacific. Accuweather forecasters predict that the storm could reach Mexico's southwestern coast by early Saturday morning, causing downpours to hit parts of Texas or New Mexico throughout the weekend.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its predictions for the Atlantic hurricane season last week, anticipating an above-average season with roughly 13 to 19 storms, six to 10 of which will be hurricanes, including three to five major hurricanes (a Category 3, 4 or 5). Active hurricane season typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October.
Hurricane season is expected to be above average because of a number of factors, NOAA reported, including warmer-than-average ocean temperatures and high forecasts for weak wind shear.
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That means whatever weather occurs that day will play a more important role in determining if a high tide will cause flooding here. Flooding can also occur without a weather system, though it's less common. A king tide occurred while Hurricane Idalia was skirting the coast of Tampa Bay in 2023. Idalia scraped near the area just hours before a king tide. Had it arrived about six hours later, Idalia's storm surge likely would have been about 2 feet higher. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has a plethora of tidal stations across the country. In Tampa Bay, a number of those sites are concentrated along the coastal waters of Pinellas and Hillsborough counties. Because Tampa Bay has a port system, there are more tidal gauges in the surrounding waters, Dentler said. However, more-northern areas of Tampa Bay, like Pasco County and beyond, are without these gauges. Dentler said tide stations are typically added onto preexisting structures, like Pier 60 on Clearwater Beach. The administration's Tides & Currents website links to its tide stations, which include information like water levels, wind speeds and observed barometric pressure. When a storm is incoming, Dentler suggests looking to the administration's Coastal Inundation Dashboard. 'It's our real-time product,' Dentler said. Pinpoints on a map show where tide stations are located. Once a user clicks on their desired location, that station's observed water levels pop up. Stations give real-time water level data and will show when minor flooding (in yellow), moderate flooding (in red) and major flooding (in pink) are possible. The lines on the graph depict three possible water levels: Predicted water levels, observed water levels and forecasted water levels. The dark blue line shows water level predictions that oceanographers made a year in advance. The red line shows where water levels currently are. The light blue line shows the forecast guidance, which inputs external weather forces such as high winds. The forecast guidance line is the best bet in knowing how high water levels may reach during a storm, Dentler said. All stations have different heights at which flooding can occur. In St. Petersburg, for example, minor flooding can happen at a little less than 3 feet. Most of the highest water levels recorded in the station's history occurred during hurricanes. Of the top five highest water levels, three have occurred since 2020. Helene took the crown last year, dethroning a record set 39 years before. During Helene, observed water levels reached more than 2 feet higher than the record set during Hurricane Elena in 1985. Just like coastal areas, inland residents of Florida are no strangers to flooding. When Hurricane Milton made landfall on Florida's west coast last year, it was the third storm to do so in a few months. The waterlogged ground and Tampa Bay's infrastructure were unable to handle the record rainfall. Rivers are a particular kind of beast. Water levels along rivers and lakes often lag weeks or months behind coastal areas after storms due to natural hydrological processes. Milton set records across Tampa Bay. The Hillsborough River rose above 38 feet, shattering a 2017 record. The Withlacoochee River crested at nearly 20 feet, the highest in nearly a century, nine days after the storm passed. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, river forecasts are made by the National Water Prediction Service, which is under the National Weather Service. The tool found at can show gauges for these sites. If you zoom in on Florida, you'll find little dots lighting up the entire state. A caveat: There are lots of buttons and drop-downs to play with on this site; water levels are one aspect. On one of its most basic levels, clicking on the dots displayed on the site will show a water body's current information and a forecast, if available. A dot corresponds with an observation, while a square corresponds with a forecast. Each colored dot or square corresponds with a water gauge. For example: green (no flooding), yellow (action), orange (minor flooding), red (moderate flooding) and purple (major flooding). A newer version of the map was released last year that has more bells and whistles, like a 'flood inundation' section. A user can also display this section under the original map, but it will warn that the information is experimental. In April 2024, a graphic found on the National Water Prediction Service product showed the Suwanee River at Manatee Springs was in a minor flooding stage, and it was expected to fall to an action level in the following days. The blue line showed observed water levels, while the dotted purple line showed the water level forecast. Should the National Weather Service place an area under a flood warning, the location will be highlighted in green. Clicking on the area will display the full advisory. For information on tides: To find the Coastal Inundation Dashboard: For information on rivers: A version of this story was previously published in the Tampa Bay Times. The Tampa Bay Times launched the Environment Hub in 2025 to focus on some of Florida's most urgent and enduring challenges. You can contribute through our journalism fund by clicking here. • • • For Tampa Bay, Helene was the worst storm in a century More hurricanes are slamming the Gulf Coast. Is this the new normal? Want to know what areas are flooding in Tampa Bay? Here's where to look. Checklists for building all kinds of storm kits.
