Stock Market Too Focused on Goldilocks Outcome
Reports on Wednesday suggesting a deal with the EU may be close could make it five. Still, that's not the 90 that the US Commerce Secretary promised three months ago.
Markets have tended — except in the initial panic after the president's April 2 tariff announcement — to act like we'd arrive at a good place in due course — the Goldilocks outcome.
With the Aug. 1 deadline right around the corner, I still see that as just a tail-risk -- one that is unlikely -- and I'll explain why below.
But let's suspend disbelief first and and examine what that (not-impossible) Goldilocks scenario involves and what it would mean for markets.
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