Spaghetti Models Show Potential Paths of Next Two Tropical Storms
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
The Atlantic hurricane season is ramping up, with National Hurricane Center (NHC) meteorologists monitoring two disturbances behind Hurricane Erin that have a chance of strengthening into tropical storms in the coming days.
Spaghetti models, or computer models illustrating potential storm paths, show an early look at where those storms might go if they develop.
Why It Matters
Hurricane Erin is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season. Meteorologists have issued numerous warnings that the season doesn't reach its peak until mid-September.
NHC meteorologists are tracking two potential disturbances now in Erin's wake, with early spaghetti models showing that at least one of the systems could take a similar path as Erin did toward the Lesser Antilles.
A map from the NHC shows two new disturbances behind Hurricane Erin.
A map from the NHC shows two new disturbances behind Hurricane Erin.
National Hurricane Center
What To Know
Official storm path forecasts have not been released for either of the two disturbances, as it is too soon to know for certain where they might go.
However, the spaghetti models show both disturbances heading west.
The disturbance with the highest chance of development is near the Leeward Islands in the Tropical Atlantic.
"A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms," an NHC update about the disturbance said. "Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form toward the end of the week or this weekend. This system should move westward to west-northwestward at about 20 mph and approach the vicinity of the Leeward Islands on Friday."
The system has a 10 percent chance of strengthening in the next 48 hours, and a 60 percent chance of doing so in the next seven days.
The other system is much closer to the western coast of Africa in the eastern tropical Atlantic.
"A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms," the NHC said. "Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development over the next couple of days as the system moves westward at around 15 mph. Towards the end of this week, this system could encounter a less favorable environment, limiting its development chances after that time."
This system has a 30 percent chance of forming in the next 48 hours and in the next seven days.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek: "The first one...the lead wave, it's going to be following in Erin's footsteps here. It's going to be moving through water that's mixed up from Erin, so we don't expect it to blow up like Erin did because it's going to move through cooler waters."
DaSilva added: "The wave behind it we need to watch closely. It's a little further south, so that one should avoid the wake of Erin. We'll have to watch for development with that one, but it could be going into a harsh environment, so it might be ripped apart by some [wind] sheer."
What Happens Next
Meteorologists will continue to monitor the systems, as well as Hurricane Erin as it passes east of the U.S. this week. Should more tropical storms develop, people in the impacted areas should follow local weather guidance.
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