UPDATED: Strategists examine alternatives to Gaza displacement plan in Cairo - Foreign Affairs

Al-Ahram Weekly

26-02-2025

The participants in Gaza & the Future of Peace and Stability in the Middle East reviewed regional and international experiences in post-conflict reconstruction without displacing populations. They asserted that any reconstruction plan for the heavily devastated strip must be incorporated into ceasefire agreements and should not be impeded by any party.
The event, hosted by the Egyptian Council for Strategic Studies (ECSS) and the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs (ECFA), kicked off earlier on Wednesday to explore proposals for dismantling efforts to displace the Palestinians from Gaza.
In the first session, titled International Approaches to Conflict Resolution and Reconstruction, Ahmed Aml, head of the African Studies Unit at the ECSS, spotlighted the African experience in post-conflict reconstruction, explaining that it focuses on the return of displaced people and refugees, rebuilding, and establishing lasting peace.
Aml referred to Article 11 of the African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons, which outlines states' obligations regarding "sustainable return, local integration, or resettlement."
He noted that the convention endorses return, resettlement, and involving local communities in reconstruction. He also pointed out that the return of refugees and displaced people after a conflict is crucial for lasting peace, indicating that the African experience suggests a direct link between their return, their role in reconstruction, and the achievement of sustainable peace.
Tewfick Aclimandos, head of the European Studies Unit at the ECSS, asserted that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to reconstruction, as the circumstances surrounding donors and internal authorities vary.
Aclimandos stated that each reconstruction effort is characterized by its unique circumstances, which are influenced by factors such as the extent of the destruction, how it occurred, the donors' profiles, and the national authorities' characteristics.
Before reconstruction, it is essential to assess the impact of destruction on the effectiveness of public authorities and the private sector and determine whether institutions and businesses require rebuilding.
Additionally, he indicated that the reconstruction process is inherently political, necessitating careful consideration of the political framework within which it occurs. He stressed that coordination with international bodies, such as the World Bank, and efforts to broaden beneficiaries' scope and uphold social justice principles are vital.
Meanwhile, Aclimandos stressed that the reconstruction process should be incorporated into ceasefire agreements, ensuring that no party can obstruct it.
A slew of politicians, diplomats, academics, and media professionals are in attendance to examine the illegality of displacement under international and humanitarian law and explore ways to rebuild conflict and war zones without displacing their native populations.
Discussions will address the risks of demographic shifts on Middle East security internally and between states, as well as their impact on the Palestinian cause, particularly in light of Israeli far-right policies.
According to a framework paper issued before the event kickoff, the symposium aims to dismantle and refute the American vision of forcibly displacing Palestinians from Gaza and highlight regional and international experiences in post-conflict reconstruction without displacing populations.
Earlier in February, US President Donald Trump proposed that Washington take control of Gaza, forcibly displace its native Palestinian population, and build a 'Middle East Riviera' sparked global outcry.
The US president had cited Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab countries as possible destinations for the Palestinians.
Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab nations immediately rejected the idea, considering it a dismissal of Palestinians' historical rights and a threat to regional stability.
Egypt is preparing a comprehensive plan for rebuilding the heavily devastated Gaza Strip without displacing the Palestinians, which will be presented on 4 March at the Cairo emergency Arab summit on the Palestinian cause.
Speaking at the symposium's opening session, Khaled Okasha, the ECSS's general manager, said that despite the United States's long-standing history of supporting the Middle East peace process, it has recently shifted its stance, providing unconditional support for Israel and aligning with its right-wing perspective.
He noted that this approach represents an unprecedented violation of international law and relevant resolutions affirming the Palestinian people's right to self-determination, return to their homeland, and live securely on their land. It also contradicts all international norms and laws, which prohibit the crime of "ethnic cleansing," entailing the forced displacement of local populations.
"The American proposals seek to impose a fait accompli policy in line with Israel's expansionist ambitions regarding Arab territories while overlooking Israeli expansion in the West Bank as well as in Syria and Lebanon," he said. "The American proposal carries numerous adverse repercussions that could push the region into a chronic state of instability, potentially leading to widespread and open-ended wars."
Okasha explained that the displacement approach reflects the policy of "imposing power" under the pretext of achieving peace, warning that this may ignite further internal conflicts — whether sectarian, social, or regional — especially in some Middle Eastern countries experiencing fragile demographic conditions.
He emphasized that implementing this scenario could significantly reshape the Middle East's balance of power and influence, creating opportunities for other regional powers to extend their geopolitical reach, potentially at the expense of certain Arab states.
He stated that the US is expected to base its efforts for the reconstruction of Gaza on actively involving the strip's residents, considering them a key player in ensuring the sustainability of reconstruction efforts and building peace and stability.
"We also expect the US to support and strengthen Arab efforts and visions regarding Gaza's reconstruction, particularly those proposed by Egypt and Jordan," he added.
Okasha reiterated Cairo's preparation of a three-phase reconstruction plan, which initially focuses on early recovery operations and subsequently rebuilds the sector's infrastructure. He clarified that the plan then progresses towards the political track as a prelude to the two-state solution, with the Palestinian people remaining on their land as a fundamental pillar of the reconstruction process.
In this context, he underscored that the war in Gaza had reinforced the notion that a comprehensive and just resolution of the Palestinian issue — rooted in the two-state solution — is essential for establishing lasting peace and security in the Middle East.
"Any approach that excludes the Palestinians while focusing on providing further security guarantees to Israel and allowing its expansion at the expense of Palestinian rights is unacceptable, whether by Palestinians, Arabs, or internationally, as it risks reigniting regional escalation,' he said.
Okasha stated that the Middle East remains burdened by many challenges, with unresolved and ongoing conflicts and crises fuelling successive waves of refugees and displacement.
Also during the session, Mohamed Orbi, former minister of foreign affairs and chairman of the ECFA, warned that the Palestinian issue is being dismantled and redefined under concepts straying from the aspirations of Palestinians, Arab nations, and those seeking peace.
He noted that the displacement proposals contradict international law, the United Nations (UN) Charter, and global norms. Additionally, he highlighted the dangerous situation in the West Bank, saying Israel had "gone beyond the limits of the region.'
He emphasized that the symposium aims to generate rapid and decisive ideas in line with Egypt's plans to rebuild Gaza with Palestinian, Arab, and international support.
The symposium will feature three other sessions: Displacement Projects and the Palestinian Cause, The American Position on the Gaza War and its Regional Repercussions, and Repercussions of Displacement and Resettlement Projects on Regional Security.
Devastation in Gaza
A joint UN, World Bank, and European Union (EU) report estimates that rebuilding Gaza will cost over $50 billion.
The Interim Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (IRDNA) reported that over 292,000 homes were destroyed or damaged, and the local economy has contracted by 83 percent. Additionally, 95 percent of hospitals were destroyed and are now inoperable.
=