Bucks vs. Nuggets Predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for March 26
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets Preview
The Milwaukee Bucks (40-31) and Denver Nuggets (45-28) are all set to square off from Ball Arena in Denver.
Both the Bucks and the Nuggets have struggled recently. Both are 4-6 in their last 10 games. Much like other teams, they have both been bitten by the injury bug. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damien Lillard, and Nikola Jokic have missed time recently, and both are questionable for this game.
The Bucks are currently 16-19 on the road with a point differential of 2, while the Nuggets have a 6-4 record in their last ten games at home.
We've got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch tipoff, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
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Game details & how to watch Bucks vs. Nuggets live today
Date: Wednesday, March 26, 2025
Time: 9:00PM EST
Site: Ball Arena
City: Denver, CO
Never miss a second of the action and stay up to date with all the latest team stats and player news. Check out our day-by-day NBA schedule page, along with detailed matchup pages that update live in-game.
Game odds for Bucks vs. Nuggets
The latest odds as of Wednesday:
Odds: Bucks (+138), Nuggets (-163)
Spread: Nuggets -4
Over/Under: 226 points
That gives the Bucks an implied team point total of 112.16, and the Nuggets 114.24.
Want to know which sportsbook is offering the best lines for every game on the NBA calendar? Check out the NBC Sports' Live Odds tool to get all the latest updated info from DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM & more!
Expert picks & predictions for Wednesday's Bucks vs. Nuggets game
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) is leaning toward Giannis Antetokounmpo over 31.5 points…
Thomas: 'This is a challenging game to forecast, given the limited information on player availability.
However, we know that Lillard is out indefinitely. That means there's a slight increase in Kyle Kuzma's usage. His number is a bit too high for me to take. Antetokounmpo also received a usage boost, and this matchup feels perfect for him. He's also cleared this number in back-to-back games.'
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NBA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for today's Bucks & Nuggets game:
Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the Denver Nuggets on the Moneyline.
Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Milwaukee Bucks at +4.
Total: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Game Total of 226.
Want even more NBA best bets and predictions from our expert staff & tools? Check out the Expert NBA Predictions page from NBC Sports for money line, spread and over/under picks for every game on today's calendar!
Important stats, trends & insights to know ahead of Bucks vs. Nuggets on Wednesday
The Nuggets have won 15 of their last 20 games when a home favorite
7 of the Nuggets' last 9 games (78%) have gone over the Total
The Bucks have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games as a road underdog
The Nuggets have won 12 of their last 20 games
If you're looking for more key trends and stats around the spread, moneyline and total for every single game on the schedule today, check out our NBA Top Trends tool on NBC Sports!
Bet the Edge is your source for all things sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick's insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
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37 minutes ago
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Pacers coach Rick Carlisle offers defense of Scott Foster after referee receives criticism in Game 4
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USA Today
an hour ago
- USA Today
Rick Carlisle defends Scott Foster from online criticisms: 'Unjust and stupid'
Rick Carlisle defends Scott Foster from online criticisms: 'Unjust and stupid' Fresh off one of the greatest NBA Finals games ever, most of the online discourse surrounded the officials — specifically Scott Foster. He was the head referee for the Oklahoma City Thunder's 111-104 Game 4 win over the Indiana Pacers. Little was made about Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's heroics. The MVP winner put up 15 points in the fourth quarter. A lot was made about the Thunder's free-throw numbers. The second half crawled at a snail's pace. The Thunder went 34-of-38 on free throws. The Pacers went 25-of-33. After a dramatic finish, Foster trended on social media for the wrong reasons. Many accused him of helping the Thunder even the 2025 NBA Finals at 2-2 apiece. They've even coined him "The Extender" as the NBA's hitman to extend a playoff series. Pacers head coach Rick Carlisle is having none of it. He spent a part of his Sunday NBA Finals media availability defending Foster. He had a similar moment earlier in the championship series when ESPN's Doris Burke was heavily criticized for her commentary. "As far as officiating, I think it's awful some of the things I've seen about the officiating, and Scott Foster in particular. I've known Scott Foster for 30 years. He is a great official. He has done a great job in these playoffs. We've had him a lot of times," Carlisle said. "The ridiculous scrutiny that is being thrown out there is terrible and unfair and unjust and stupid." The old saying goes that if you know an official's name by heart, it's for all the wrong reasons. To defend Foster a bit, the online reactions to him being assigned were already bad. Everybody conceded it meant the Thunder would tie the series. The game's aftermath was just textbook confirmation bias. Even if they called too many fouls late in the game. While some folks might cynically view this as Carlisle playing some reverse psychology ahead of an important Game 5, it's easier to take this on the surface level. With just a maximum of three games left in the NBA Finals, Foster might not even be assigned another game. That said, the Thunder have been taxed with conspiracy theories all year about how the officials favor them on both sides of the floor. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander gets too many marginal calls and the league's best defense gets away with being too physical. Such comes with the territory of being the title favorite all season. The Thunder are the NBA's top villain. While the social media world screams conspiracy, Carlisle thinks the opposite.
Yahoo
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Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals: Alex Caruso has been giving OKC a little bit of everything — including a lot more minutes
OKLAHOMA CITY — Through the first seven and a half months of this NBA season, Alex Caruso had only topped 30 minutes in a game twice. The first: a late-March meeting with the Los Angeles Clippers, when injuries to Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren pressed him into duty in the Thunder's starting lineup. The second: Game 4 of the 2024 Western Conference finals, when the veteran super-sub skittered all over the court, guarding Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and every Timberwolf in between in a hard-fought 128-126 win that drew Oklahoma City within one win of the 2025 NBA Finals. Advertisement Now that the Thunder are actually in the 2025 NBA Finals, though? Caruso has played 30-plus twice in four Finals games — the last two, now that you mention it. As the philosopher once said, 'There are no coincidences.' That philosopher's name? Alex Caruso. Oklahoma City Thunder guard Alex Caruso has risen to the occasion in the NBA Finals. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy) (ASSOCIATED PRESS) Caruso cracking 30 minutes just twice in his first 72 appearances this regular- and postseason was emblematic of the Thunder's big-picture plan of attack for a player they'd targeted in a key trade last summer to be the missing piece of a hoped-for championship puzzle … but also a player whose now-legendary relentlessness had led to multiple injuries that cost him significant time over the course of his seven-year NBA career. Advertisement 'Yeah, I mean, it's a double-edged sword,' Caruso said after Oklahoma City's Game 2 win. 'Some of that is I play a pretty erratic style regardless if it's Game 1 [of the season] or if it's Game 2 of the Finals. I just only have one gear — I don't know how to play at 75%. Some of that was keeping me out of my own way, out of harm's way. I don't do a good job of that on my own.' Some of it, though, came down to Oklahoma City being friggin' awesome, with a ton of dudes capable of contributing when given the chance. 'We won 68 games in the regular season,' Caruso said after Game 2.' We had a 12-, 13-man rotation through the year, depending on who was hurt, different teams we played. That just comes with the nature of having a really good, deep team.' Advertisement The Finals have a way of winnowing down a team's depth, though — of erasing the opportunities to see what a precocious rookie might be able to provide you, of rendering more limited contributors particularly vulnerable and thus unviable, of paring a team down to its most essential elements. 'It's the ultimate effort, endeavor, whatever you want to call it,' Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said after Game 4. 'I mean, it's long. It's arduous. But it's the greatest opportunity going. … It's really hard, and it's supposed to be hard.' 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Or that, when the moment calls for it, he's got enough shake to his handle to be able to get from Point A to Point B off the bounce and make something happen once he gets there: 'Over my career, my abilities have gotten better through some work ethic and a little bit of confidence and understanding the moment and having success in the moment,' Caruso said after Game 4. '... This series — this playoffs, really — teams are forcing me to try and score the ball. That's something that I've been working on for the last three, four years of my offseason. It's been long offseasons not in the playoffs, so I've had a lot of time to work and prepare.' Advertisement That preparation, combined with countless catch-and-shoot reps that have turned him into a 43.2% marksman from 3-point range in this postseason, makes Caruso a legitimate complementary offensive threat playing off the likes of Gilgeous-Alexander, Williams and Chet Holmgren. And that, combined with his ability to defend all across the positional spectrum — and his propensity for wreaking havoc while doing so, in the form of steals, deflections, blocked shots and blown-up possessions — makes him an exceptionally additive player in just about any context you could conjure. 'He is a gamer — you plug him in anywhere, any lineup, feels like any group, he makes a difference,' Gilgeous-Alexander said Sunday. 'Makes everyone else around him better. He is always talking. He always knows where we're supposed to be, where the other team is supposed to be. He has instincts that are special. I don't think you can teach things like that. He just knows where the ball is going, where a rebound is bouncing to, how to get a deflection, timely steals.' That all-around difference was palpable late in Game 4. Caruso contributed a little bit of everything — strong shot contests, aggressive rebounding on both ends, smart cuts, timely help rotations, excellent on-ball defense — as part of the small-ball defensive look Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton said 'got us stagnant there,' and helped set the table for the comeback effort that got OKC even in the best-of-seven series: 'He has a championship ring for a reason,' Gilgeous-Alexander said after Game 4. 'It's no coincidence. He knows what it takes. He put the work in. He's proving it every night.' Advertisement Caruso has proven plenty for Oklahoma City, both over the course of the season and in this series, where he has the best on-court/off-court splits of any Thunder rotation regular besides Holmgren. In a gotta-have-it Game 4, Oklahoma City outscored Indiana by 14 points in Caruso's 30 minutes; through four games, 17 of 26 Thunder lineups that have outscored the Pacers have included Caruso. 'He just has amazing feel for the game and is an insane competitor,' Gilgeous-Alexander said Sunday. 'I think you add those two things together, and no matter where you drop him in the world, any basketball game, he is going to make a difference.' The question facing Daigneault and his coaching staff heading into Game 5 of a 2-2 series: Could Caruso make an even bigger difference in even bigger minutes? Like … for example … starter's minutes? Daigneault's proven very willing to tinker with his starting lineup, shifting away from a more traditional two-big look with Isaiah Hartenstein alongside Holmgren before the series in favor of moving Cason Wallace into the first five to better match speed on the perimeter with Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard and Indiana's high-octane ball- and player-movement game. Daigneault then shifted back to the double-big unit for Game 4, as part of a reorientation of Oklahoma City's rotation and substitution pattern aimed partly at counteracting the Pacers' defensive strategy on Gilgeous-Alexander, thus ensuring the MVP had a bit more gas in the tank come crunch time than he had in Game 3. (Mission accomplished.) Advertisement 'Every game is different,' Daigneault said Sunday. 'Like, we've done it after wins, after losses, throughout these series — we move things around pretty quickly to try to stay unpredictable and also try to scrape for every advantage we can in what turn out to be close games.' Few players in the league are better equipped to scrape out those advantages than Caruso, and with the Finals knotted up and a title just two wins away, Daigneault sounded Sunday like a coach prepared to lean even harder in his direction. 'I think this is the time you've got to do everything you can to try to win the games and pull out all the stops. That's been the mentality,' he said. 'He's been great. Extra rest in the Finals for all the players is a consideration, and you get a lot of rest between games. There's advantages and disadvantages. But one of the advantages is for everybody to recover and be as fresh as possible going into the game.' Advertisement With an extra day of rest between Games 4 and 5, and with a shot at a second date with the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy getting closer by the possession, Caruso plans to be ready to put his fingerprints on the game, no matter how many minutes Daigneault needs him to play come Monday night in Bricktown. 'These are the games you are judged on … this is the time of year that I live for,' Caruso said Sunday. 'This is the time of the year where games matter, stakes are high, wins and losses are more important. So being prepared for this is important.'