Donald Trump Approval Rating Underwater in Swing State He Won Twice

Newsweek

12 hours ago

Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
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President Donald Trump's approval rating has declined in North Carolina, a swing state he has won twice.
According to a new Catawba College/YouGov poll, a majority of people disapprove of Trump and his approval rating has declined since March.
Why It Matters
Trump's popularity has fluctuated in the first few months of his second term. Providing a snapshot for the electorate's mood, approval ratings help policymakers understand the public response to Trump's decisions.
North Carolina in particular is an important as a swing state. It hasn't voted for a Democrat in a presidential election since 2008.
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on May 23, 2025, in Washington.
President Donald Trump speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on May 23, 2025, in Washington.
AP Photo/Evan Vucci, File
However, Trump won by only 1.3 percent of the vote in 2020 and 1.1 in 2024 in a state that often elects Democratic governors. Seven of its last eight gubernatorial contests have gone blue.
Trump's approval rating decline in North Carolina might impact Republican chances in the 2026 midterm elections, especially given Senator Thom Tillis' announcement not to seek reelection. His decision triggered the Cook Political Report to call North Carolina a "top pick-up opportunity" for Democrats, moving it from a lean-Republican state to a toss-up state.
What To Know
The Catawba College/YouGov poll of 1,000 North Carolinians found that 50 percent disapproved of the president while 46 percent said they approved. That's a decline from March, when the pollsters found that 48 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved.
However, the poll, which was conducted June 10-26, falls along partisan lines and the approval rating is within the poll's margin of error, +/- 3.56 percent.
Nationally, some polls are similarly negative. A Tyson Group poll, conducted June 25-26 among 1,027 U.S. adults, showed Trump's net approval rating 6 points underwater, with 45 percent approving and 51 percent disapproving.
However, some polls suggest Trump's approval rating has ticked up slightly. The latest Emerson College poll, conducted June 24-25, showed Trump's approval rating largely unchanged from April, with 45 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.
What People Are Saying
Scott Lucas, a professor in international politics at University College Dublin, told Newsweek: "The fact that he [Trump] has attacked Thom Tillis who is pretty well-liked in North Carolina and that Tillis is not running for reelection raises further problems for the Republicans there."
Dr. Michael Bitzer, professor of politics and history and director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service, in a statement: "As is the norm, partisan differences are clearly evident among North Carolinians: 89 percent of self-identified Democrats disapproved while 92 percent of self-identified Republicans approve of the president. Independents are more disapproving of the president, at 59 percent, than approving, at 36 percent.
"Overall, while the approval/disapproval is within poll's margin of error, North Carolinians' opinions appear to have turned on the president. Three months ago, the March Catawba-YouGov poll found Trump at 48 percent approval to 47 percent disapproval. With his approval appearing to tick down and disapproval ticking up, the president's first six months have impacted his standing in North Carolina."
What Happens Next
As his presidency continues, Trump's approval rating will likely fluctuate in line with global events and his policies.
The midterm elections will take place in November 2026.