The Flaw in the Texas Democrats' Plan

The Atlantic

3 days ago

Texas state Democrats had been plotting their departure for weeks. But most weren't sure they were going—or where they were headed—until just before they boarded their plane. For a successful quorum break, the timing 'has to be ripe,' State Representative Gina Hinojosa told me. 'Like a melon at the grocery store.' On Sunday, she and dozens of her colleagues hopped on a chartered plane and flew to Chicago in an attempt to prevent Texas Republicans from redrawing the state's congressional maps. They don't seem to know how long they'll be there or when, exactly, they'll consider the job done. Perhaps, Hinojosa suggested, they can attract enough attention to the issue that Republicans will be shamed into abandoning the effort.
Shame, however, is not an emotion experienced by many politicians these days, least of all ones who answer to Donald Trump. The likeliest conclusion of this effort is that Republicans will get their wish, just as they did after a similar situation in 2021.
Right now, the Texas Democrats' quorum-break project appears to have two goals, one much more easily accomplished than the other. The first is to send a message; the gerrymandering attempt in Texas is a chance for Democrats nationwide to accuse Republicans of cheating, and to demonstrate a bit of the gumption their voters have been clamoring for. Because the party is effectively leaderless, now is a perfect moment for wannabe standard-bearers to soak up some of the limelight. Illinois Governor J. B. Pritzker, for example, has made a lot of speeches and trolled Republicans; so has New York Governor Kathy Hochul. And tonight, California Governor Gavin Newsom will host Hinojosa and other Texas Democrats in Sacramento for a press conference.
The second, more practical objective is to run down the clock. If Texas Democrats can stay out of state long enough, they could make it difficult for Republicans to implement the new district maps ahead of the first 2026 election deadlines. This goal is optimistic, experts I interviewed said. Living in a hotel for weeks is expensive, and resources will eventually dry up. Pressure is mounting from Republican leaders. 'And there's a stamina factor at play that can't be avoided,' Brandon Rottinghaus, a political-science professor at the University of Houston, told me. It seems, he added, 'inevitable that the new maps pass.'
State Democrats have only been on the run for five days in the Chicago area (as well as in New York and Massachusetts). The public is still interested, and Democrats have plenty of opportunities to shape the media narrative. 'Democratic voters are paying attention,' Joshua Blank, the research director of the nonpartisan Texas Politics Project, told me. 'Having something to rally around is very, very useful for them.' Republicans have not tried to deny that they're making a blatant power grab, though they argue that they're simply following the lead of Democrats in heavily gerrymandered states such as Illinois. 'It's just unilateral disarmament if you don't match what Democrats have done on the other side,' Matt Mackowiak, a Texas Republican strategist who is working on Senator John Cornyn's reelection campaign, told me. (The difference is that in Texas, they're redrawing the maps five years early, rather than waiting for the Census.)
But quorum breaks are, by nature, temporary. Eventually, the wayward lawmakers will go home. What matters is when. The candidate-filing deadline for the 2026 election is December 8, and the primary is in March, so theoretically, if lawmakers can stay out of state for multiple months, Republicans might run into legal problems getting their new map in place.
One problem with the run-down-the-clock strategy is that, in the past, Texas courts have simply postponed the state's primary while congressional maps were being litigated. (That delay likely contributed to Ted Cruz's 2012 Senate victory.) Another challenge is keeping up the political will; as time drags on, Texas voters will want their representatives to come home and do their job. Then, there are the logistical issues. A long quorum break means that Texas Democrats spend weeks or months living in a hotel, away from their families and racking up bills. Many of those state lawmakers have jobs outside politics—jobs that might not be well suited to working remotely from a hotel conference room. A few members brought small children with them to Chicago, Hinojosa told me, and some of those children will probably have to be back in school soon. 'We've seen it before,' Rottinghaus said. 'The biggest pull for members to come back isn't always the politics; it's most often the personal.'
When I asked Texas Representative Ana-María Rodríguez Ramos how long she was willing to stay in Chicago, she told me that she understands the burden this puts on families; her own daughter is recovering from a liver transplant. 'Am I prepared for two weeks? Three weeks? What is the alternative?' she asked. 'If this is a sacrifice that we need to make, then it's the sacrifice that has to be made.' But two or three weeks probably won't be enough. (It's possible, Rodríguez Ramos suggested, that the state's 11 Senate Democrats, who remain in-state, could take their own turn breaking quorum; only one chamber needs to do so to stop legislation from being passed.)
Texas Governor Greg Abbott's threats complicate the picture. This morning, he suggested that if Democrats 'don't start showing up,' Republicans will add a few more GOP seats to the new map. He has promised to fine the runaway Democrats $500 each for every day that they're gone, and to go after any groups raising money for them. Abbott has also suggested that he'll kick the Democrats out of their seats in the legislature—although, experts say he does not have the power to do so directly. Earlier this week, the state house issued civil-arrest warrants for the rogue Democrats, and yesterday, Cornyn announced that the FBI had agreed to 'locate' them. Although FBI involvement might seem far-fetched, 'there's very little that restricts' the agency, Michael German, a fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice and former FBI agent, told me. The bureau could share information with local law enforcement, he said.
A single one of these variables is not likely to shatter the Texas Democrats' resolve, but over time, the pressure adds up. After making headlines for a few weeks, Democrats will probably be squeezed dry, emotionally and financially. A few will return home, and then, eventually, they all will. The new GOP district map will pass, perhaps in a slightly altered form, and Republicans will have what they've been fighting for: a few more GOP congressional districts, perhaps just enough to preserve the party's narrow hold on the House of Representatives through what might be a tough midterm election.
But Texas Democrats aren't willing to entertain that possibility just yet. In Chicago, members are reassessing the situation each day, Hinojosa told me. To sum up the general attitude, she paraphrased former Texas Governor Ann Richards. 'All we have is the here and now,' she said, 'and if we play it right, it's all we need.' A more realistic view of the situation might be that Democrats are seizing the moment because they know it's fleeting.