Weak Fundamentals Facilitate Shrewd Options Trade on Intel Stock (INTC)

Business Insider

15 hours ago

On the surface, semiconductor giant Intel (INTC) presents a risky narrative. Sure, INTC stock gained 14% since the start of the year, an impressive performance given that the benchmark S&P 500 is up around 5% during the same period. However, over the past 52 weeks, the security has declined by more than 26%, which is well below that of semiconductor leaders like Nvidia (NVDA).
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Adding to the complex narrative, tense relations between the U.S. and China cloud the fundamental case for INTC stock. Recently, President Donald Trump has stepped up export controls to block the Asian juggernaut's access to advanced semiconductors. Combined with the Trump administration's tough trade policies, particularly regarding tariffs, the situation is challenging for Intel. Last year, China accounted for 29% of Intel's revenue, exposing the company to foreign policy dynamics.
Still, bullish investors may be able to read between the lines. Although Trump's tariffs have rattled Wall Street, he has also consistently backed off from going full bore. Impolitely, this back-and-forth process has earned the president the nickname 'TACO' — 'Trump always chickens out,' they say.
From a practical perspective, the cloud hanging over INTC stock may be a Bullish opportunity, as there's reason to believe that cooler heads will (eventually) prevail. To amplify gains from this speculative position, traders may consider diving into the options market.
The Art of Probability Helps Investors Capitalize on INTC
While scrolling through various financial publications can provide color and context for a particular enterprise, this approach lacks specificity. Options traders require a thesis to cover not only the magnitude component (y-axis) but also the time element (x-axis). Being correct on one but not the other leads to a suboptimal transaction, to put it mildly.
Stated differently, traders must view the market in probabilistic terms, and it's here that the game of blackjack — and the concept of card counting — becomes supremely relevant. Professional blackjack players will keep a running count of the card values dealt. Low cards are assigned a value of +1, neutral cards are assigned a value of 0, and high cards are assigned a value of -1.
Essentially, the idea is to raise one's bet when the odds favor the player and reduce bets when the odds favor the dealer. When done correctly, this approach provides a slight but tangible edge for the card counter, making it a superior framework compared to simply guessing randomly.
However, making the strategy work requires a player to calculate two types of probabilities: derivative and conditional. The baseline success ratio is derived from the Gaussian (or standard) distribution, which indicates the likelihood of success based on all aggregate hands. However, the Markovian (or conditional) odds show the possibility of success for a specific hand.
It's possible to apply this same game-theory logic to the stock market but with a catch: it's difficult, if not impossible, to conduct Markovian analyses on continuous scalar signals like stock prices. Therefore, this metric should be converted into discrete states, just like how a pro blackjack player would approach the problem.
Subsequently, this is the reason why market breadth — or t he sequence of accumulative and distributive sessions — is such a vital measurement metric. As a representation of demand, market breadth is effectively binary, facilitating easy categorization and quantification. These attributes serve as the backbone of past analogs for the formulation of probabilistic analysis.
Plotting a Bullish Trading Strategy for INTC Stock
With Tuesday's solid performance, INTC stock is on track this week to print a 6-4-U sequence: six up weeks, four down weeks, with a positive trajectory across the 10-week period. Admittedly, converting INTC's price action into a simple binary sequence compresses its magnitude dynamism. Still, the benefit to the trader is that the process segregates price action into distinct, discrete behavioral events. These events can then be tracked to determine transitional probabilities.
For instance, using the above approach, the trader can identify that the 6-4-U sequence has flashed 46 times since January 2019. In 56.52% of cases, the price action for the following week (which would coincide with the business week beginning July 7) results in upside, with a median return of 2.47%.
Assuming INTC closes around $23 by the end of this week, if the implications of the 6-4-U sequence materialize, the security could reach around $23.57 relatively quickly. And if the bulls maintain control of the market, a push toward $24 over the next few weeks wouldn't be out of the question.
Finally, what makes this setup so intriguing is that, as a baseline, the chance that INTC stock will rise on any given week is only 51.03%. Therefore, an incentive exists to consider a debit-based options strategy.
Based on the market intelligence above, an aggressive yet rational trade would be the 22.50/23.50 bull call spread, expiring on July 18. This transaction involves buying the $22.50 call and simultaneously selling the $23.50 call, for a net debit paid of $52, representing the maximum potential loss in the trade. Should INTC stock rise through the short strike price ($23.50) at expiration, the maximum reward is $48, a payout of over 92%.
Is Intel a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Turning to Wall Street, INTC stock has a Hold consensus rating based on one Buy, 26 Holds, and four Sell ratings over the past three months. The average INTC stock price target is $21.30, implying a downside risk of 6.78% over the next year.
Harnessing Mathematical Probability to Trade Intel Stock
While Intel's fundamentals may not appear especially compelling at first glance, the political backdrop may prove less detrimental than many fear. Adding to the bullish case for INTC stock is a statistical perspective: given the nature of Intel's demand profile, there's a reasonable basis for expecting potential upside. For bullish speculators, this could present an interesting opportunity in the options market.