New Pope Update: Favorite Emerges to Replace Francis as Conclave Starts
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources.
Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content.
As the conclave to elect the next pope begins, Pietro Parolin has emerged as the betting favorite to succeed Pope Francis, according to the latest market analysis by William Hill.
Parolin, who serves as the Vatican secretary of state, has seen his odds shorten to 12/5 (29.4 percent) from 5/2 (28.6 percent) on April 21, overtaking Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, whose odds have drifted to 3/1 (25 percent) from 2/1 (33.3 percent) over the same period.
Why It Matters
On April 21, Francis died at the age of 88, ending his 13-year papacy. On Wednesday, the search for his replacement begins, a decision set to chart the ideological course of the Roman Catholic Church—with some clergy members expressing concern that Francis' replacement will continue the Argentine's progressive changes.
What To Know
Parolin, an Italian cardinal, is now seen as a leading candidate. However, Tagle, a former archbishop of Manila, remains a close second in the betting odds.
Other prominent candidates include Matteo Zuppi, the archbishop of Bologna, whose odds have shortened to 4/1 (20 percent) from 5/1 (16.7 percent), positioning him as the third favorite.
Peter Turkson of Ghana, formerly the head of the Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development, follows at 5/1 (16.7 percent). Turkson's election would make him the first African pope since the fifth century, following Francis' history-making turn as the first Latin American to serve in the role.
The Vatican Secretary of State cardinal Pietro Parolin presides at Mass marking the 20th anniversary of the death of Pope St. John Paul II at St. Peter's Basilica on April 02, 2025 in Vatican City,...
The Vatican Secretary of State cardinal Pietro Parolin presides at Mass marking the 20th anniversary of the death of Pope St. John Paul II at St. Peter's Basilica on April 02, 2025 in Vatican City, Vatican. More
Vatican Media via Vatican Pool/GETTY
Pierbattista Pizzaballa, the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, has also gained traction in the betting market, moving to 6/1 (14.3 percent) from 8/1 (11.1 percent).
Hungarian Peter Erdo, the current Archbishop of Esztergom-Budapest, also has odds of 8/1 (11.1 percent) while Guinean Catholic prelate Robert Sarah is on 14/1 (6.7 percent).
Parolin has been praised for his diplomatic work, including mediating between the United States and Cuba. Known for his closeness to Francis, the Irish News described him as a "pragmatist" who wants "progress while adhering to the tradition and heritage of the Catholic Church."
He described a 2015 Irish vote to legalize same-sex marriage as "a defeat for humanity."
The next pope is being selected during an ongoing papal conclave which began on Wednesday by members of the College of Cardinals. Up to four rounds of voting will take place each day until one candidate achieves two-thirds support.
What People Are Saying
Lee Phelps, a spokesperson for William Hill, told Newsweek: "The conclave has begun to elect the next pope, and it appears that Pietro Parolin, who was replaced as favorite by Luis Antonio Tagle last week, is back in front in the race to become the next pontiff. He has been backed into 12/5 from 5/2 while Tagle is now 11/4 from 2/1.
"Matteo Zuppi and Peter Turkson remain firmly in contention, at 4/1 and 5/1 respectively, while Pierbattista Pizzaballa is a mover in the market at 6/1 from 8/1, as we await white plumes of smoke from the Vatican's Sistine Chapel chimney."
What Happens Next
The College of Cardinals has gathered to begin the conclave process, which will continue behind closed doors in the Sistine Chapel until a new pope is selected.
Vatican watchers are set to keep a close eye on the smoke signals from the chapel, with white indicating whether a consensus has been reached among the 133 cardinals.
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