Will Bears Move Up In The Draft To Land A Cornerstone Player?
There's no way to know what the Bears are going to do with their first-round pick in Thursday night's draft. If you knew how the first nine were going to fall you could make an educated guess about Ryan Poles' thinking with No. 10, but even then it would be a guessing game.
This much seems certain: Poles' focus is on improving the offense around second-year quarterback Caleb Williams, who was outplayed by Jayden Daniels as a rookie.
The players of the highest interest for the Bears seem to be running back Ashton Jeanty, tackle Will Campbell and tight end Tyler Warren, with the perceived second-best tackle, Armand Membou, possibly also a major consideration. But if those standouts are flying off the board, Poles may have to make an uncomfortable decision to move up in the draft before they're all gone.
The options are to stay put and take the best available player, regardless of position — most likely looking to a defensive player — or make trades to move down in the draft, where the price wouldn't be as high to take a less celebrated prospect.
If Poles wanted to move downward, he could turn the seven picks he's holding into 10 or even 11 players. One projection compiled using Pro Football Focus' draft simulator showed the Bears with 11 players, including running back Omarion Hampton at 22, tackle Josh Conerly Jr at 31 and tight end Elijah Arroyo at 65. It's questionable whether those players will last that long, but you get the idea.
But what if Poles covets Jeanty, Campbell, Membou and Warren so much he wants to move up in the draft? That would mean he'd have to be creative to have seven or more picks when the draft ends Saturday.
The most realistic possibility might be the Charlotte Panthers, a familiar trade partner for Poles who this year are holding nine picks. The issue for General Manager Dan Morgan is that there's a gap of 49 picks between their first-rounder and their second-rounder, which started out with the Rams.
Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer reported the Panthers are looking for more picks. The Bears are holding two second-rounders (39, which came to the Bears in the swap of the first overall pick in 2023, and 41), which would make them a good fit if Poles has a chance to land Jeanty, Campbell, Membou or Warren.
Trades during the draft come in a variety of ways but rarely stray too far from the chart NFL Hall of Famer Jimmy Johnson drew up. He assigned a value to each of the first 224 picks (although this year's draft runs 257 picks).
The best fit for the Panthers and Bears has Chicago sending Carolina the 10th and 41st picks this year for the eighth this year and a second-rounder in 2026. Another combination that makes some sense is that the Bears send Carolina the 41st overall for the 74th overall after swapping picks in the first round.
The Johnson chart says the Bears could also ask for the 114th overall but you wonder if Morgan would do a three-for-two swap in terms of picks. That answer lies in how badly he wants to add a pick in the second round rather than wait for his one in the third to come around.
Jacksonville (No. 5), Las Vegas (No. 6), the Jets (No.7) and New Orleans (No. 9) are also candidates for potential upward moves by the Bears. The cost of doing such business is most expensive with the Jaguars and least with the Saints.
The Johnson chart says the cost for the Bears to move into the fifth spot would be swapping the 41st overall — the second of Chicago's two second-rounders — for the 107th overall, which is the first of Jacksonville's two fourth-rounders.
Poles would have to be awfully motivated to make this move but don't rule it out. Don't rule anything out, for that matter. The first two hours on Thursday night are going to be fascinating.
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