PGR vs. BRK.B: Which Insurer is a Safer Investment Option?

Globe and Mail

2 days ago

The U.S. auto insurance market is projected to reach $349.37 billion by 2025, with an average spending per capita of $1020, according to Statista. Despite a slowdown in rate increases, the average cost of full coverage car insurance is expected to reach a record high of $2,101 per year, according to The State of Auto Insurance in 2025 report.
The U.S. auto insurance industry is poised to grow on increased awareness of the need for insurance, technological advancements, evolving car ownership trends, rising cost of ownership and the emergence of online platforms. The Progressive Corporation PGR and Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (
BRK.B
) — both notable auto insurers — are expected to grow, banking on these positives.
Yet, as an investment option, which stock is more attractive? Let's closely look at the fundamentals of these stocks.
Factors to Consider for PGR
PGR is one of the country's largest auto insurance groups, the largest seller of motorcycle and boat policies, the market leader in commercial auto insurance and one of the top 15 homeowners carriers based on premiums written. Most of PGR's premium comes from auto insurance, though it is on track to expand its offerings into homeowners and commercial insurance. As part of its growth strategy, Progressive is prioritizing auto bundles, lowering exposure to risky properties and increasing segmentation through product rollouts.
PGR's business mix is heavily weighted toward personal auto, both in the direct and agency channels. Contributing about 90% to Personal Lines net premiums written and 75% of total company premiums, personal auto's performance has a significant impact on Progressive's profitability.
The Personal Auto is poised to grow banking on rate increase, higher new personal auto applications, driven by higher advertising spend, an increase in non-rate actions to drive growth and a strong independent agents' network. The Personal Auto segment thus remains a long-term growth driver for Progressive, fueling both premium volume and profitability. Its profitability should continue to benefit from higher average earned premium per policy, lower incurred loss frequency trends and, in personal auto, favorable prior accident years reserve development.
Its Snapshot program supports personalized pricing, strengthening its competitive position across all markets. Its expanded multi-product portfolio continues to fuel growth and has led to improvements in policy life expectancy (PLE) — a key measure of customer retention — which has consistently risen across all business segments in recent years.
Over a decade, PGR's average combined ratio has stayed under 93%, outperforming the industry average of over 100%. This performance reflects strong underwriting discipline and favorable reserve development, both of which should help the company retain the momentum.
In line with industry trends, Progressive has embraced digital transformation, including the adoption of AI technologies.
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Progressive's comprehensive reinsurance program shields it from the adverse financial impacts of catastrophic events and active weather periods, helping to maintain the integrity of its balance sheet.
Net margin, measuring a company's profitability, has been showing continuous improvement. The metric expanded 950 basis points in the last two years, banking on rising demand for personal auto insurance policies as well as prudent risk management.
PGR's solid cash flow ensures continuous investment in growth initiatives, including digitalization, which helps improve margins. PGR has been enhancing its book value and lowering leverage, banking on operational expertise.
Its return on equity of 35.4% betters the industry average of 7.8.
PGR shares have gained 1.4% year to date.
Factors to Consider for BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway is a diversified conglomerate with ownership in more than 90 subsidiaries across a broad range of industries, including insurance and consumer products. This helps to minimize concentration risk. Of these, insurance is the most prominent, contributing approximately one-fourth of the company's total revenues. This segment is well-positioned for continued growth, driven by increased market exposure, disciplined underwriting practices and favorable pricing trends.
GEICO, a cornerstone of Berkshire's insurance operations, is the second-largest auto insurer in the United States and has long been a key driver of the company's insurance float. Its direct-to-consumer model, cost discipline and strong underwriting have historically enabled superior combined ratios and consistent profitability.
In recent years, however, GEICO has come under pressure, losing market share to agile competitors like Progressive, which adopted telematics and usage-based pricing more swiftly. Inflation, higher accident frequency, and slow rate adjustments have hurt its underwriting performance. In response, Berkshire has taken corrective steps, including rolling out a telematics program and bolstering its focus on technology-driven underwriting to sharpen pricing and risk assessment—aiming to restore GEICO's competitive edge.
The growth of its insurance business not only expands its float but also strengthens earnings, improves return on equity and provides the financial flexibility to pursue strategic acquisitions. With a strong cash position, Berkshire frequently acquires companies or raises its stakes in those that deliver consistent earnings and high returns on equity. While large acquisitions introduce growth opportunities, smaller bolt-on deals enhance operational efficiency and profitability.
Net margin, measuring a company's profitability, has been showing continuous improvement. The metric expanded 1650 basis points in the last two years. Financially, the company remains solid, with over $100 billion in cash reserves, minimal debt and a strong credit profile.
Its return on equity of 6.9% is lower than the industry average.
BRK.B shares have gained 2.4% year to date.
Estimates for PGR and BRK.B
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR's 2025 revenues and EPS implies a year-over-year increase of 16.5% and 24.4%, respectively. EPS estimates have moved 5.4% northward over the past 30 days. PGR has a Growth Score of A.
On the other hand, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for BRK.B's 2025 revenues implies a year-over-year increase of 8.5% while the same for EPS indicates a decline of 6.7% year over year. EPS estimates have witnessed no revision over the past 30 days. BRK.B has a Growth Score of D.
Are PGR and BRK.B Shares Expensive?
Progressive is trading at a price-to-book multiple of 4.37, below its median of 5.37 over the last five years. Berkshire's price-to-book multiple sits at 1.53, above its median of 1.48 over the last five years.
Conclusion
PGR remains focused on increasing the share of auto and home-bundled households, investing in mobile applications and rolling out products in a higher number of states to drive growth.
Holding shares of Berkshire Hathaway adds dynamism to shareholders' portfolios. It has Warren Buffett at its helm, who has been creating tremendous value for shareholders over nearly six decades with his unique skills. However, all eyes are now on how the behemoth fares when Greg Abel succeeds Warren Buffett as the CEO of Berkshire, starting Jan. 1, 2026. Warren Buffett will continue to be the company's executive chairman.
Both these insurers have weathered cost challenges well, as evident from their continued net margin improvement.
Yet, on the basis of return on equity, which reflects a company's efficiency in generating profit from shareholders' equity as well as gives a clear picture of the company's financial health, PGR scores higher than BRK.B. Progressive has a VGM Score of A, while Berkshire carries a VGM Score of D.
PGR, with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), has an edge over BRK.B, which carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
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