The Putin-Xi summit is a meeting between the pawn and the player
As, to the sound of trumpets, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping marched purposefully to meet each other at the centre of the hall, each had much to rejoice over. Their carefully choreographed encounter is a chance for both to show how two global autocrats stand side by side against a third.
As Xi commented with characteristic indirectness, the two are facing 'a new era' of 'unilateralism and the hegemonic practices of the powerful' – for which read Trump's second Presidency. The 'deepening trust' and 'strengthening co-operation' between the two partners underlines to the entire world the geostrategic nature of their shared intention: to contest, weaken and humiliate the US and usher in a new world order shaped by their shared brand of realpolitik. That is the impression they both choose to create.
So what does this meeting of expediently-aligned dictators consist of, beneath its glossy public triumphalism? Firstly, Putin's air of authority owes much to Xi's connivance. Russia under Putin has squandered uncounted lives and treasure. Much of the expense has been covered by crucial energy sales to China. Putin has outsourced drone production to China and Iran. Russia depends far more on Beijing than China does on anything Russia has to offer.
Xi's main purpose in aligning with Putin is to use him as a proxy combatant to divide and exhaust the West, creating geopolitical overload on the US and its allies. Distraction and divisions, particularly between the US and Europe, provide Xi with ideal conditions to pursue his zero-sum unilateral grand strategy for the 'Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation'.
There is certainly no equal place for Russia in Xi's revisionist dreams of global domination. He aims not only to annex Taiwan and assert control over the West Pacific, but also to regain the vast Siberian territories which China's last empire gave up to Moscow in the 19 th century. As principal customer for vast amounts of Eastern Siberian gas and oil, Xi is paying rent for what he hopes sooner or later to inherit.
For years, in behaviour that would seem needy if it was not so obsessively insistent, Putin has tried to obtain Xi's agreement to buy gas from close to the Urals which he can no longer sell to Europe. Xi has so far declined, notwithstanding Putin's habit of announcing that a deal is about to be agreed just ahead of very public bilateral discussions. And yes, 'Power of Siberia 2' – as this pipeline is known – is once again on the Russian agenda. But Xi has long since made sure that he can do without such a long, vulnerable supply line. If he sees more gain than risk in agreeing this time, that will truly mark a step change.
The US has quietly announced its top military priority to be constraining and deterring China's global ambitions. Taking the heat off Putin in Ukraine is intended to free up resources for this. This strategy looks distinctly shaky if Russia and China truly act as one. This Victory Day meeting is no memorial, but a future challenge.
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