Republicans stuff new tax cuts into their megabill, hoping voters will take note

Politico

a day ago

Republicans are using their domestic policy megabill as an opportunity to pile on new tax breaks in hopes of quickly juicing people's tax refunds, the economy and their political fortunes ahead of next year's midterm elections.
Their plan would spend more than $200 billion on tax cuts this year, in addition to simply extending tax cuts enacted in 2017 that are set to expire at the end of this year and would likely go unnoticed by most taxpayers.
An enlarged Child Tax Credit, a supersized break for state and local tax (SALT) deductions and a slew of other goodies would be made retroactively available for this tax year so that people can claim them when they file their tax returns next spring. Businesses too would receive a bevy of backdated tax cuts.
Almost two-thirds of filers are in line to receive, on average, an extra $1,200 next year, the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center figures, though that could be pared back by the Senate. Republicans are already touting the coming benefits to voters, though they risk being eclipsed by complaints from Democrats that the wealthy would see much bigger tax cuts and that people at the bottom of the income ladder would receive little while being hurt by cuts in spending on programs like Medicaid.
The add-ons are intended to address a major, if sometimes overlooked, political problem for Republicans when it comes to this year's tax debate: They're mostly just extending temporary provisions that people have been using for years. If that's all they did, many people wouldn't see much change in their tax bills.
With the new provisions, Republicans are trying to ensure voters can feel a quick jolt to their personal finances. At the same time, lawmakers are also trying to use the legislation to offset the expected hit to the economy from President Donald Trump's trade wars.
'We want to see the impact of these provisions as quickly as possible,' said Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Pa.), a tax writer.
The strategy comes with some downsides.
For one thing, the additional tax cuts are increasing the bill's cost, no small thing amid the mounting focus on government debt. A plan to raise the cap on state and local tax deductions to $40,000, from $10,000, would cost $33 billion in 2025 alone, TPC says. Some Senate Republicans, calling the provision too expensive, are now trying to ratchet that back to $30,000.
It's also hardly a sure thing the plan will actually pay political dividends — Republicans never got much credit from voters for the tax cuts that flowed from their original Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Polling at the time showed many people didn't believe their taxes had gone down.
The plan would also put a lot of pressure on Treasury and the IRS, which have faced significant staff cuts, because they would have to quickly sort out the details of how the provisions would work so that people can claim them.
That's partly why Republicans are rushing the legislation through Congress, in addition to the need to hike the debt limit, which is also included in the package.
'One of the reasons we've got to get everything done by July is so there's time to get information to people and there's time to be able to get the guidance documents out from the IRS, because that's going to take them months,' said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), a tax writer.
Republicans are trying to get legislation to Trump's desk by their July 4 recess, though lately they've been warning that deadline could slip.
The effort has left some observers wondering if Republicans might send checks to millions of taxpayers as downpayments on the tax savings, like they did after former President George W. Bush's tax cuts.
That would draw public attention to the new tax cuts, and Trump has periodically teased the idea of sending voters some sort of tariff-related payment. But Republicans say there are no plans for checks.
Aside from increasing the child credit and sweetening the SALT deduction, Republicans plan to boost the standard deduction by $2,000 for couples. They're also creating a string of new breaks: a $10,000 deduction for auto-loan interest, a $4,000-per-person deduction for seniors, a $300 break for people who give to charity, deductions for overtime pay and income from tips, and a new tax-preferred investment account for children.
Most people would see their taxes go down under the GOP plan, with those in the middle of the income spectrum receiving an average of $830, the Tax Policy Center says. Low-income people projected to benefit would get relatively little, about $250, and the top 20 percent of earners would get about $2,500.
Those averages, though, obscure the fact that benefits would vary widely, even among taxpayers with similar incomes, because so many of the new breaks are narrowly targeted at specific groups.
Raising the SALT cap to $40,000 would save someone in the top 1 percent of earners about $4,000, TPC estimates. Parents with two kids would see an additional $1,000 from the child credit increase. The auto-loan interest deduction would be worth as much as $1,200 to a couple making $50,000.
Altogether, tax cuts for individuals would run about $140 billion this year, according to TPC.
Meanwhile, businesses would get retroactive breaks for research, investment and interest expenses, as well as a new break for building factories — which would cost a combined $57 billion through the fiscal year that ends in September, the official Joint Committee on Taxation says.
In order for people to claim all of the new benefits, they'll need to know the nitty gritty of how they're supposed to work, and it will be up to the administration to sort that out.
The legislation orders Treasury, for example, to come up with a list of occupations that would be eligible for Trump's new tip deduction. The deduction for auto-loan interest would be reserved for vehicles that had 'final assembly' in the U.S., with a complex rule for how that would be determined. Employers will surely have lots of questions about how business breaks are supposed to work as well.
'Every business is going to say, 'What does this mean?'' said Lankford. 'So the earlier we can get this done, the greater the economic effect that can happen this year.'