How Bangladesh is slipping back into Pakistan's grip

India Today

3 days ago

Half a century after losing the 1971 war, Pakistan is quietly creeping back into Bangladesh-not with tanks or troops, but through intelligence operatives, radical clerics, diplomatic manoeuvres, and a rising tide of Islamist fervour.This is not an invasion. It is infiltration. And it is happening in plain sight.
A Manufactured UprisingThe protests that shook Bangladesh earlier this year were framed as a grassroots revolt over job quotas — the cry of a generation locked out of opportunity. Years of political repression, economic inequality, and public frustration gave the unrest legitimacy. Yet beneath the surface lay the fingerprints of orchestration.advertisementThe slogans mirrored radical Islamist narratives. The timing was too precise. The organisation too perfect. Behind it was Islami Chhatra Shibir, the student wing of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami. Behind them — Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), allegedly with discreet Western backing.The Fall of Sheikh HasinaFor over a decade, Sheikh Hasina kept Bangladesh stable through terrorism threats, coup attempts, and a war on extremism. She defied Pakistan, challenged Islamists, and resisted China's unchecked influence. In doing so, she earned enemies in Islamabad, Beijing-and, increasingly, Washington.Under President Biden, US–Bangladesh relations soured over allegations of democratic backsliding and human rights abuses. Reports surfaced of US-backed pressure campaigns-funding opposition voices, sanctioning Hasina's allies, and mobilising diplomatic influence. The quota protests proved the tipping point. Over 1,400 deaths later, Hasina was forced out.Enter Muhammad YunusInto the vacuum stepped Nobel Peace Prize laureate Muhammad Yunus-a celebrated figure abroad but far less respected domestically. Under Yunus, Jamaat-e-Islami was quietly rehabilitated. Radical networks once suppressed began operating openly. Groups like Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, and Ansarullah Bangla Team re-emerged.On 21 January 2025, Major General Shahid Amir Afsar of the ISI arrived in Dhaka under the guise of medical cooperation. In reality, he met Paresh Barua, leader of the United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA)-a separatist insurgency targeting India's northeast.Building the Eastern CorridorULFA offers Pakistan a backdoor into India. Coupled with Islamist mobilisation in Bangladesh, Rohingya youth recruitment, and terror logistics via JMB, the ISI is constructing a familiar insurgency blueprint-refined in Afghanistan and Kashmir-but this time aimed squarely at India's eastern flank.China's role is equally significant. Under Hasina, Beijing's influence over ports, infrastructure, and energy was balanced. Under Yunus, it is growing unchecked. Together, China and Pakistan are forging a corridor of influence from Gwadar to Cox's Bazar, leveraging insurgent groups in Myanmar's Rakhine State to secure strategic trade routes.India's Shrinking Strategic DepthWith Hasina gone, India's secure eastern flank is eroding. Infiltration from Bangladesh is rising. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) reports increased chatter between ISI handlers and sleeper cells in West Bengal. Assam Police have intercepted multiple JMB-linked operatives in recent months.advertisementThe United States, now under Donald Trump, shows little inclination to intervene. Trump's transactional foreign policy prioritises deals with Islamabad over Delhi's security concerns, especially if Pakistan can offer leverage in Afghanistan or against China in Balochistan.Economic and Ideological RecolonisationUnder Yunus, Bangladesh's economy is faltering. Garment exports are collapsing as Western buyers withdraw, with Chinese firms moving in to fill the gap. This economic dependency risks turning Bangladesh into a client state.Meanwhile, radical sermons are returning to mosques, Islamist student groups are re-establishing themselves on campuses, and extremist recruitment among Rohingya refugees is accelerating. Analysts warn of an 'East Pakistan 2.0'-not born of military conquest, but of ideological infiltration and economic capture.The Clock is TickingPakistan has refused Yunus's demands for 1971 reparations and instead offers deepening cooperation-direct flights, military exchanges, visa-free business travel, and port partnerships. It is a textbook case of soft annexation, and the Bangladeshi leadership appears unwilling or unable to resist.For India, the threat is immediate. The longer Dhaka drifts into Islamabad's and Beijing's orbit, the harder it will be to reverse. Border security will be tested. Sleeper cells will awaken. And the possibility of another 2008-style attack-or worse-will grow.advertisement1971 was a rejection of Pakistan's religious nationalism in favour of linguistic and cultural identity. If Bangladesh forgets why it fought for its independence, that hard-won freedom could quietly be undone-replaced not by foreign flags, but by foreign control.- Ends