Cold front to dump ‘decent dose' of rain on drought-affected parts of south-east Australia

The Guardian

2 days ago

Drought-affected areas in south-eastern Australia can expect a 'decent dose' of rain when a cold front arrives later this week, with some places likely to see the best rain of the year so far.
With one low-pressure system already delivering windy and wet conditions to the south-east on Tuesday, a second front – currently sitting off Western Australia – was expected to sweep across the country from Wednesday to Sunday, bringing a welcome band of rain to parched areas of South Australia, northern Victoria and south-western New South Wales.
As that second system made its way east, it was expected to link up with tropical moisture from the Indian Ocean, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
'More moisture means more rainfall,' said senior BoM meteorologist Angus Hines, who said the rain was expected to stretch 'pretty far and wide' – through South Australia, Victoria, NSW, and most of Queensland and Tasmania. 'Lots of people will be getting some rain.'
That 'decent dose' of rainfall would be particularly welcome for drought-affected areas, Hines said, but was unlikely to address the significant deficits many places have seen.
'I would anticipate probably at least some locations will get the best rain of the year so far,' Hines said.
But after 18 months of dry weather, it would take more than one good wet weather event to catch up, he said.
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Large tracts of southern South Australia, as well as parts of western Victoria and north-west Tasmania, have recorded their lowest rainfall on record, in the 18 months from January 2024 to end of June 2025, according to the BoM. The drought has seen Adelaide's water reservoirs drop to their lowest levels in decades. Dams were currently sitting at 42% capacity.
And much of southern Australia – from west to east – have seen below average or very much below average totals.
On Tuesday, the first front would reach Victoria and alpine New South Wales, with only a fleeting band of rain and the potential for snow at the highest peaks.
The main impact would be strong winds, Hines said, which were already blowing across southern parts of the country moving through South Australia, Victoria and parts of Tasmania.
'It is a blustery old day across the southern states, with wind being the main threat,' he said. 'There are a number of damaging wind warnings through Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia, and just squeaking across the border into the snowy mountains of New South Wales.
'We've seen lots of gusts in excess of 100km/h yesterday evening, overnight [and] into this morning. We actually saw one particularly strong wind gust at Mount Hotham in Victoria, 150km/h,' he said.
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The heaviest rainfall totals were expected to be 15 to 25mm, with isolated totals exceeding that.
In Victoria, damaging, locally destructive wind warnings were current on Tuesday morning for central, eastern, Gippsland, Wimmera and the south-west, with blizzard conditions for alpine areas.
In South Australia, severe weather warnings for damaging winds were in place for Kangaroo Island and parts of the Mount Lofty Ranges, Lower Eyre Peninsula, Yorke Peninsula and south-east districts.
As the winds moved through, temperatures would feel colder. Adelaide could expect a top of 13C on Tuesday, with showers and gusty winds.
The low-pressure system would reach Tasmania later Tuesday afternoon, bringing strong and gusty winds as well as widespread, although mostly lighter rainfall in southern areas. Damaging winds were likely for the state's central and north-western districts. Hobart would reach 17C.
On Tuesday, a cloudy day was expected for Sydney, with a top of 20C. Showers and a top of 16C were expected in Canberra and Melbourne, and 17C in Perth. Possible showers were forecast for Brisbane and 22C.
Darwin would be partly cloudy and 31C.