Grim news for more than half of Australia
Senior climatologist Lynette Bettio said for August to October, there would be 'likely wetter-than-average conditions' for most of the eastern two-thirds of mainland Australia.
'There is around an equal chance of rainfall being above, below, or near average for most of Western Australia and the far southeast,' Dr Bettio said.
The bureau has highlighted a possible shift in the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a key ocean temperature pattern strongly influenced by warming oceans and which greatly affects Australian weather.
The coming months also look warmer than normal, especially overnight.
'Daytime temperatures for August to October are likely to be above average for northern, western, and southeastern Australia, with below-average daytime temperatures likely for the interior and some eastern parts of the country,' Dr Bettio said.
'This is consistent with the wetter-than-average forecasts and associated cloud cover.
'Night-time temperatures are very likely to be above average for most of Australia.'
Across much of the eastern half of the country, there's also a high chance of unusually warm nights.
'For August to October, waters around much of Australia are forecast to remain warmer than average to the north, south, and east,' Dr Bettio said.
From September to November, the odds of above-average rainfall remain strong, with a 60 per cent to greater than 80 per cent chance across the eastern two-thirds of the country.
There's also an increased risk of unusually high rainfall, in the top 20 per cent of historical records, for parts of eastern Queensland, NSW, southeastern South Australia, and northern Victoria.
This period also marks the transition from the dry to wet season in northern Australia, typically bringing higher humidity, more storms, and regular showers. But not every region will share in the rain, with below-average totals more likely in western parts of Western Australia and southwestern Tasmania.
While the IOD, a climate driver that can strongly influence rainfall, is currently neutral, the bureau expects it to shift into a negative phase from August to November before returning to neutral in December.
This phase often boosts rainfall over southern and eastern Australia, though without a La Nina in the Pacific, the wettest possible outcomes are less likely.
July 2025 recorded the warmest sea surface temperatures for the month since records began in 1900, continuing a run of record or near-record warmth since mid-2024.
These warm oceans can help feed moisture into weather systems, increasing rainfall potential.
Despite some recent showers, drought conditions persist in parts of SA, Victoria, Tasmania, and WA. More sustained falls will be needed to break long-term dry spells.
'In summary, we're likely to see a wetter-than-average August to October for most of the eastern two-thirds of mainland Australia, roughly equal chances of above or below-average rainfall for most of Western Australia and the southeast, and above-average daytime and night-time temperatures for most of the country,' Dr Bettio said.
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