Trade Setup for July 18: Nifty struggles to hold 25,000 as markets await Reliance results
The day's losses came amid heightened caution ahead of major earnings, including those from Reliance Industries, JSW Steel, Hindustan Zinc, Bandhan Bank, and IndiaMART Intermesh—all scheduled for release on Friday.
Top gainers on the Nifty included Tata Consumers, Tata Steel, and Hindalco, while Tech Mahindra, IndusInd Bank, and Infosys were among the laggards. Broader market indices mirrored the weakness—Nifty Midcap 100 declined 0.17%, and the Smallcap 100 slipped 0.12%.
Sectorally, Realty, Metal, and Consumer Durables showed some resilience. However, steep declines in IT and Banking stocks dragged the overall sentiment. FIIs were net sellers in the cash segment, while domestic institutional investors bought into the dip.
Stocks like Wipro, Axis Bank, Jio Financial Services, and Indian Hotels will also be in focus after their results were released post-market on Thursday.
Technical View
Analysts suggest that Nifty's bounce near the 25,000 level looks weak, raising concerns about a possible retest of the 24,900–25,000 zone.
Nandish Shah (HDFC Securities) noted that the index failed to sustain above the 20-day EMA (currently at 25,232), signaling continued choppiness. 'Support lies at 25,000, below which longs should be avoided,' he advised.
Rupak De (LKP Securities) flagged a bearish sentiment. "The Nifty couldn't cross the 25,260 mark. A downside move toward 24,900 is likely if bearish momentum sustains."
Hardik Matalia (Choice Equity Broking) added that while 25,000 is immediate support, a decisive fall below 24,900–24,700 could trigger a deeper correction. On the upside, 25,400–25,500 is the hurdle to watch.
In summary, traders will closely watch Friday's earnings announcements and the 25,000 mark, which could dictate the short-term market direction.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Economic Times
14 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Nifty support levels at 24,900 seen crucial: Analysts
Given the uncertain backdrop, traders should remain cautious and avoid aggressive positions. Sustainable long trades should only be considered above 25,800, which would signal strength returning to the broader trend. Synopsis Nifty is near a key support level of 24,900. A break below could lead to further decline. Analysts suggest short positions in Nifty and select stocks. Profit-booking is advised around 24,500. A rally towards 25,200 presents selling opportunities. Buy-on-dips strategy is ideal. Aggressive longs should be considered above 25,550. After slipping below the psychological 25,000-mark last week, the Nifty is now trading near a crucial support zone around 24,900–24,930. Analysts note that this area holds key technical significance, with multiple indicators converging near this range. A decisive close below 24,900 could trigger a deeper correction, dragging the index toward 24,500 or even lower, while a rebound could face stiff resistance near 25,200–25,300. ADVERTISEMENT NAGARAJ SHETTI SENIOR TECHNICAL RESEARCH ANALYST, HDFC SECURITIES Where is Nifty headed this week? A negative candle was formed on the daily chart on Friday, indicating an attempt to break down below immediate support. On the weekly chart, Nifty formed a third consecutive bearish candle. The previous decisive upside breakout from last month's larger range has been negated as Nifty slipped below the crucial 25,000 mark. There is a probability of Nifty sliding down to the next important support at 24,500 in the coming week. Any pullback rally could encounter strong hurdles around 25,200. Trading strategies for the week: With markets in a downtrend, fresh short positions are advised in the index and select stocks. Any pullback rally towards 25,200 could present a sell-on-rise opportunity. Partial profit-booking may be considered around the downside target of 24,500 in the next 1–2 weeks. However, any sharp bounce above 25,250 could be a red flag for shorts and an opportunity to square off. Shorts can be created in Bank Nifty, infrastructure, public sector enterprises, energy, and IT sectors. Some stocks with a negative bias include Axis Bank, Federal Bank, CG Power and Industrial Solutions, Samvardhana Motherson International, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Infosys, LTIMindtree, Coforge, and Power Finance Corporation. SACCHITANAND UTTEKAR VP, RESEARCH, TRADEBULLS SECURITIES ADVERTISEMENT Where is Nifty headed this week? Last week, the Nifty slipped below its crucial 5-week EMA support of 25,130 for the first time in nearly four months, making this a key resistance level going forward. The weekly ADX remains flat at 21, and RSI holds steady at 56, reflecting indecision. Notably, the last three weeks' price action is contained within the weekly candle ended June 27, forming a potential 'rising three' continuation pattern, with confirmation above 25,255. On the daily chart, Nifty is trending near a vital support zone: the 50-DEMA at 24,930, Fibonacci supports at 24,920 (61.8%) and 24,800 (78.6%), and 5-month EMA at 24,680. These suggest likely rebound if Nifty sustains above 24,930 on closing basis. A sustained breach below this may lead to deeper retracement toward 20-week EMA near 24,540. Trading strategies for the week: Retaining buy-on-dips strategy is ideal, with aggressive longs to be considered above 25,550, a key breakout level. If correction deepens, it should be viewed as an opportunity for staggered accumulation at key support levels. Top picks are SBI, Bajaj Fin, Hero MotoCorp, Torrent Pharma, Coal India, NMDC, Tata Steel, UltraTech, Dalmia Bharat, Alkem Labs, Tata Power, Varun Beverages, Tata Consumer. ADVERTISEMENT MEHUL KOTHARI DEPUTY VICE PRESIDENT, TECHNICAL RESEARCH, ANAND RATHI SHARES AND STOCK BROKERS Where is Nifty headed this week? ADVERTISEMENT Nifty ended the week on a weak note after breaching the psychological 25,000 mark and closing near a crucial rising trendline support. While this signals shortterm weakness, a decisive move below 24,900 would confirm an extended correction. Without such a move, a quick pullback above 25,000 could occur, but this may only be a temporary bounce. The broader structure remains tricky, and unless the 25,800 resistance—a key supply zone—is taken out, the market is unlikely to resume a sustained uptrend. Trading strategies for the week: Given the uncertain backdrop, traders should remain cautious and avoid aggressive positions. Sustainable long trades should only be considered above 25,800, which would signal strength returning to the broader trend. In Bank Nifty, weakness continues as long as it stays below 57,000, with breakdown possibilities below 56,000 that could drag it toward 54,500–54,000. Meaningful allocations should wait until the market breaks out of this indecisive range with conviction. ADVERTISEMENT (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel) Nikita Papers IPO opens on May 27, price band set at Rs 95-104 per share Nikita Papers IPO opens on May 27, price band set at Rs 95-104 per share Why gold prices could surpass $4,000: JP Morgan's bullish outlook explained Why gold prices could surpass $4,000: JP Morgan's bullish outlook explained Cyient shares fall over 9% after Q4 profit declines, core business underperforms Cyient shares fall over 9% after Q4 profit declines, core business underperforms L&T Technology Services shares slide 7% after Q4 profit dips L&T Technology Services shares slide 7% after Q4 profit dips Trump-Powell standoff puts U.S. Rate policy in crosshairs: Who will blink first? Trump-Powell standoff puts U.S. Rate policy in crosshairs: Who will blink first? SEBI warns of securities market frauds via YouTube, Facebook, X and more SEBI warns of securities market frauds via YouTube, Facebook, X and more API Trading for All: Pi42 CTO Satish Mishra on How Pi42 is Empowering Retail Traders API Trading for All: Pi42 CTO Satish Mishra on How Pi42 is Empowering Retail Traders Security, transparency, and innovation: What sets Pi42 apart in crypto trading Security, transparency, and innovation: What sets Pi42 apart in crypto trading Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Altcoins? How investors are structuring their crypto portfolios, Avinash Shekhar explains Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Altcoins? How investors are structuring their crypto portfolios, Avinash Shekhar explains The rise of Crypto Futures in India: Leverage, tax efficiency, and market maturity, Avinash Shekhar of Pi42 explains NEXT STORY
Mint
16 minutes ago
- Mint
It's not just Jane Street. Here's why derivatives are actually slowing down this July
Derivative trading activity has noticeably slowed this month—a trend driven not just by the exit of aggressive US hedge fund Jane Street, but also by a sharp drop in market volatility, according to experts. With no price-moving triggers visible currently—think tariffs, fresh wars—and earnings mostly in line with expectations, traders have perched themselves on the fence, leading to lower volumes and a quieter market. In the first 13 trading days of July, the average daily premium turnover fell 20% on the BSE and 13% on the NSE compared to the same stretch in June, exchange data showed. Market regulator Sebi's (Securities and Exchange Board of India) interim Sebi order against Jane Street came on 3 July. Read more: Brokers push back as Sebi wages war on speculation According to Shrikant Chouhan, head of equity research at Kotak Securities, the impact of Jane Street's exit on derivative volumes could not exceed 10%. In the same 13-day period, the India VIX index fell 20%, indicating that the fall in average options premium turnover–total value of premiums paid on all options contracts–is not just because of the US prop desk firm. The India VIX measures expected market volatility over the next 30 days based on Nifty options prices. The index is currently at 11.98, reflecting subdued market sentiment. Calm on the Street Experts say the low volatility is because of no near-term event of tariff. Plus, earnings are on expected lines, which can keep volatility under control. 'Volumes have also come down with a neutral news flow, lacklustre Q1 earnings expectations, and no near-term triggers," Chouhan said. Dinesh Nagpal, a technical expert and a trader, said the world has come out of a major global turmoil after the US tariff situation and the Iran-Israel conflict. 'So, with no turmoil currently or expected in the near future, volatility tends to stay quiet," he said, adding that the Nifty index is also in a very narrow range for the same reason. To be sure, the Nifty50 has been trading in the 24,968-25,541 range in July. 'The market has become lethargic, almost addicted to a trigger and in the absence of that, it's just sideways," Nagpal said. Adapting to Jane Street's exit Some participants will have to change their trading strategies in order to adapt to an environment without Janes Street, a development that experts said will keep many traders on the sidelines. Rajesh Palviya, senior vice president, technical and derivatives research at Axis Securities, said Jane Street traders would typically take big positions on expiry days. Now in their absence, local players like HNIs, hedge funds, and high-frequency traders (HFTs) will have to change their strategies, he said. Read more: Retail investors are walking the wire. Sebi should let VCs join the show. 'The local players—whose strategies were designed to counter the kind of expiry-day moves that Jane Street was making—may be in a testing phase before taking big bets in the market," Palviya said, adding that trading volumes would pick up in a couple of months, once the participants gain confidence in their new strategies. Long July A long expiry month of July is another reason, with 31 July being a Thursday—Nifty contracts expire on the last Thursday of a month. 'This means that the extended window gives traders more time to react and adjust positions, leading to a stretched-out and a low-volatility phase in the earlier part of the month," Chouhan said. However, some of the drop in volumes in the derivative space is indeed because of Jane Street. Another F&O trader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that due to Jane Street's exit, artificial price moves in the market have significantly reduced. Earlier, the firm's large-sized trades often led to random and abrupt price movements. 'With their absence, such distortions have largely disappeared, resulting in a much calmer and more orderly market environment, and reduced volatility also," this trader added. Preeti Chabra, founder at Trade Delta said that while some big players have exited and the volumes have dropped, the overall liquidity—without a huge price disruption—remains intact. 'This is because other market makers like HFTs continue to operate, providing the necessary depth and stability," she added. Read more: Financial distributors turn to GIFT City for outbound funds. But few can enter.
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
7 hours ago
- Business Standard
Street Signs: Nifty adrift in choppy waters, IFSCA nets ghost firms, more
Nifty logs third straight weekly drop amid earnings jitters; IFSCA takes action against ghost firms in GIFT City; IPO pipeline swells ahead of July 31 deadline Puneet Wadhwa Khushboo Tiwari New Delhi Listen to This Article No wind in sails: Nifty adrift in choppy waters The benchmark Nifty 50 index slipped 0.7 per cent to close at 24,968 last week, weighed down by a tepid start to the first-quarter results season. This marked the third straight weekly decline, pushing the 50-stock index just below its 20-day exponential moving average (25,250) — a sign of fading strength. 'Lack of follow-through buying and persistent selling pressure is weighing on sentiment,' said Chandan Taparia, head of derivatives and technicals for wealth management at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. He added that unless the Nifty reclaims 25,300, the near-term bias stays
