Netanyahu realises his lifelong dream
People look over damage to buildings in Nobonyad Square following Israeli airstrikes on June 13, 2025 in Tehran, Iran. Photo byIn the early hours of Friday morning, Israel launched a full-scale campaign against Iran, as waves of air strikes targeted the Islamic regime's nuclear programme and military bases. The attack – known as Operation Rising Lion — was staggering in its scale and ambition.
It's hard to overstate just how devastating Israel's strikes have been for Iran's already brittle leadership. Iranian state media has reported that the strikes killed Gen Hossein Salami, who, as head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), was Iran's most prominent military official, along with other top generals Mohammad Bagheri, the army chief of staff, and Gholamali Rashid, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya joint forces headquarters. Israeli defence minister Israel Katz said that the strikes killed most of the IRGC air force leadership, who were meeting together at the time of the attack. Ali Shamkhani, a senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who also oversees the nuclear programme, was wounded according to Iran's state media.
Less clear is how significant the hit was to Iran's nuclear programme. The Israeli military says it hit Iran's main uranium enrichment facility at Natanz, striking 'infrastructure vital for the site's continued operation and the advancement of Iran's military nuclear project'. Half a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists, including the former head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, were also targeted and killed.
Israel launched its attack less than 24 hours after the the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors declared that Iran was in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, and just 48 hours before Iranian officials were due to meet with US special envoy Steve Witkoff for another round of nuclear talks in Oman. In a pre-recorded video statement released online, Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that 'for decades, the tyrants of Tehran have brazenly, openly called for Israel's destruction. They backed up their genocidal rhetoric with a programme to develop nuclear weapons.' He also said: 'The Jewish state refuses to be a victim of a nuclear Holocaust.'
It is a dramatic escalation in an ever widening conflict that has already brutalised Gaza, and expanded into Lebanon and been felt in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. Even as Israel continued to strike, Iran retaliated, launching more than 100 drones at Israel. An IDF spokesman said in televised remarks on Friday morning that Israel's air defenses were already 'working to intercept the threats'. While further retaliation is certain — Khamenei has said that Israel 'should anticipate a harsh punishment' — it's unclear what form it will take. Iran launched major ballistic missile and drone attacks on Israel two times last year, prompting the US, UK and other European allies to swarm to Israel's defence (the vast majority of those missiles and drones were intercepted before they reached the country). Yet now, following Israel's strikes, it's unclear whether Iran is even able to launch a similar attack; Israel claims it has destroyed dozens of Iranian radars and missile launchers.
Iran could also respond with attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf, which would severely disrupt the movement of global oil supplies, or strikes on oil fields in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait or the UAE. (Oil prices have already spiked for this reason.) It's clear that the US is already concerned about possible retaliation on US military bases in the region; earlier this week, the US made moves to partially evacuate its embassy in Iraq and authorised the voluntary departure of American military family members from the region.
After Friday's strikes began, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, released a statement saying that Israel had taken 'unilateral action', that the US was 'not involved' and that Iran 'should not target US interests or personnel'. Donald Trump was slightly more colourful in his own statement, posting online that he 'gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal' regarding its nuclear programme, but 'they just couldn't get it done'. He also said 'the next already planned attacks' could be 'even more brutal,' and warned that Tehran 'must make a deal, before there is nothing left'.
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It's clear that Israel's campaign against Iran isn't over. Netanyahu, who has long wanted regime change in Iran, has said that the operation 'will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat'. What's less clear is whether the US can avoid becoming entangled in another Middle East conflict. Iran, with its neutered proxies and limping economy, has been seriously weakened in recent years. Yet if it does respond to Israel's attack by striking American bases or embassies in the region, Trump might be compelled to respond directly. Trump, who has long railed against America's misbegotten 'forever wars', will not want to be drawn into an increasingly volatile conflict. But, if things continue to escalate, that might not matter.
[See also: Labour MPs are revolting over Gaza]
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The Independent
2 hours ago
- The Independent
Israel bombarded by Iranian missiles after strikes on Tehran's nuclear bases
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Daily Record
3 hours ago
- Daily Record
Keir Starmer should lead diplomacy effort as tensions rise in Middle East
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BBC News
3 hours ago
- BBC News
Israel's endgame may be regime change in Iran - but it's a gamble
Beyond Israel's stated goal of destroying what it calls an existential threat from Iran's nuclear capabilities with its attacks on Friday, Benjamin Netanyahu has a wider aim - regime change in this scenario, he might hope that the unprecedented strikes start a chain reaction leading to unrest that topples the Islamic said in a statement on Friday evening that "The time has come for the Iranian people to unite around its flag and its historic legacy, by standing up for your freedom from the evil and oppressive regime."Many Iranians are unhappy with the state of the economy, the lack of freedom of speech, women's rights, and minority rights. Israel's attack is posing a real threat to Iran's strikes have killed the commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the chief of staff of the armed forces, and many other high-ranking IRGC chiefs, and the Israeli attack is not yet over. Iran retaliated in the afternoon, with the Revolutionary Guard saying it carried out attacks against "dozens of targets, military centres and airbases".The situation escalated quickly and after Iran's retaliatory missile attacks, Netanyahu said, "More is on the way". More of Iran's leaders could be targeted. Israel may calculate that the attacks and killings could unsettle the regime and open the way for a popular uprising. At least this is what Netanyahu hopes this is a gamble - a big is no evidence that such a chain reaction will start in the first place, but even if it starts, it is unclear where such a process might with the most power in Iran are the people who control the armed forces and the economy, and most of that is in the hands of hardliners in the IRGC and some other unelected don't need to stage a coup because they are already in power, and they could take Iran in a more confrontational direction. Another possible outcome could be regime collapse followed by Iran's descent into chaos. With a population of about 90 million people, events in the country would have a massive impact across the Middle desired outcome seems to be an uprising that ends with a friendly force taking over, but a major question here is who might be the alternative?Iranian opposition forces have been highly fragmented in recent years and there are no clear options the unrests in 2022, known as the "Woman Life Freedom" movement that took most of Iran like a storm, some opposition groups tried to form a coalition of a wide range of anti-Islamic Republic groups and that didn't last long due to differences in their views on who leads the coalition and what will be the shape of the regime after toppling the current leaders might see some of these groups or personas as preferred alternatives. For example, the Iranian former crown prince Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's former Shah, who was overthrown in the country's 1979 Islamic lives in exile and has been actively trying to influence foreign players to support his cause. He also visited Israel in recent years. Although he has gained popularity among some Iranians, it's not clear whether that could quickly transform into a force for regime change. Live: Latest update as Israel targets Iran's nuclear sitesWatch: Footage shows explosions and buildings ablaze in TehranIsrael has inflicted unprecedented damage on Iran's elite - why now?Israel chose to act now, whether Trump likes it or notIran is reeling from Israel's unprecedented attack - and it is only the start There's also the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MEK), an exiled opposition group that backs the overthrow of the Islamic Republic but is against going back to the as a left-wing Muslim group, it previously staunchly opposed the the revolution, the MEK went to Iraq and joined Saddam Hussein in the early 1980s during his war against Iran, which made them unpopular among many group continues to be active and has friends in the US, some of whom are close to Donald Trump's it appears to have less influence with the White House than during Trump's first term, when senior US officials including Mike Pompeo, John Bolton, and Rudy Giuliani appeared at MEK gatherings and gave supportive are other political forces as well, from those who want to establish a secular democracy to those who seek a parliamentary monarchy and so might be too early to analyse the full extent of Friday's attacks, but during last year's exchanges of fire between Iran and Israel, there were no strong indications that Iranians saw those situations as an opportunity for toppling the those events didn't even come close to the level of destruction during Friday's attacks. Islamic Republic's endgame We must also ask what Iran's endgame is targeting a number of targets in Israel, Iran doesn't seem to have many good might see the safest way out as continuing to engage in negotiations with the US and aiming to de-escalate from returning to negotiations, as Trump has demanded, is a tough choice for Iran's leaders because that would mean they have accepted option is to carry on with retaliatory attacks against seems to be their most desired is what Iranian leaders had promised to their supporters, but even if the attacks continue, it could invite further attacks by has in the past threatened to target US bases, embassies, and points of interest in the this is not easily achieved and attacking the US would bring it directly into the mix, which is what Iran least of these options are easy for either side and their consequences are hard to dust is still in the air and we won't know until it settles what changes have taken place.
