One Liberal leader will be grateful for Dutton's demise
If there is one Liberal grateful for Peter Dutton's stunning leadership failings – and his history-making defeat – it must be NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman. Dutton's demise will be the making of Speakman, and will cement his leadership heading into the 2027 state election.
But to capitalise on the complete rejection of the federal Liberals – now seen as a party that is anti-renewables, anti-women and anti-migrant – Speakman must ignore the white male Boomer membership of his party, the so-called base, which has proven to be completely out-of-touch with modern Australia.
Instead, Speakman must make a virtue of his best asset: a sizeable chunk of his party room are Millennials, including nine MPs under the age of 40. This is a demographic cohort that punished the conservatives at the federal poll. Those younger MPs should guide Liberal policy heading into the 2027 election.
The most crucial policy involves housing. The NSW Liberals have struggled to land a position on whether to be NIMBYs or YIMBYs. If the federal results are anything to go by, areas with an increasing number of apartments – such as Bennelong and Parramatta – turned their backs on the conservatives. Opposing high-density living options, such as units around railway stations, will only keep younger voters away. The NSW Liberals need to be a party of YIMBYs.
But housing is not the Liberals' only weakness. Election after election, they have failed to acknowledge that if women are to vote for their party, it needs more women candidates. The only conclusion you can draw is that some parts of the organisation – that mystical base that selects candidates – do not really want women in parliament. The party refuses to back quotas, yet cannot find a better way to achieve equal gender representation within its ranks.
To be fair, the state Liberals have had a better track record than their federal counterparts, though men still outnumber women in the lower house (15 to nine). However, when you combine both houses of parliament, Liberal women make up 45 per cent of the party room. The party needs to build on that, not rest on its laurels.
You need to only look to Gladys Berejiklian's protege Gisele Kapterian, who is on track to buck the overwhelming trend and hold the once blue-ribbon federal seat of Bradfield for the Liberals. Kapterian is an exemplary candidate for the NSW Liberals moving forward: an accomplished progressive woman from a migrant background who wants to serve. Indeed, NSW Labor heavyweights were rooting for Kapterian to beat teal candidate Nicolette Boele amid fears she would run for a state seat if unsuccessful. Kapterian, in Labor's view, would be a threat in Macquarie Street. Berejiklian, mark two.
Although the ABC and Nine initially called the seat for Boele, the vote in Bradfield is ongoing and, as of Wednesday, Liberal strategists were quietly confident that postal and absentee ballots would swing the seat in Kapterian's favour. That will be a shame for the state Liberals, who no doubt would have welcomed her into their party room. Her election to federal parliament will at least provide one bright moment for the conservatives in NSW.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Sky News AU
2 hours ago
- Sky News AU
‘Whitlam-esque': Zoe McKenzie blasts Labor's divisive tax hike on super accounts, slams Tasmanian opposition for triggering early election
Victorian Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie has lambasted Labor for continuing to advance its plan to hike taxes on superannuation accounts and impose levies on unrealised gains whilst hammering the Tasmanian opposition for sending punters to a winter election. Labor's plan to raise taxes on superannuation accounts over $3 million to 30 per cent and to target unrealised capital gains has sent shockwaves throughout the political and business arena, with financial doyens accusing the government of discarding decades of precedent. The Coalition was previously in talks with the Albanese government to revise certain elements of the legislation, chiefly the concept of taxing unrealised gains, however shadow Treasurer Ted O'Brien officially confirmed on Thursday the LNP would oppose the bill. Yet, former Reserve Bank board members Donald McGauchie and Roger Corbett, in addition to a litany of major Liberal Party donors, have pressed the Coalition to remain at the negotiating table and to secure what it deems crucial exemptions for illiquid assets including farms and small businesses. Ms McKenzie, an outspoken moderate who holds one of the Liberal's last outer-suburban seats, railed against the policy, but did not address if the Coalition would resume talks with Labor to modify the legislation. 'I think this is a terrible piece of policy and a terrible precedent for the future, Labor is effectively saying that they will tax money in your pocket, and you do not yet have this money,' she told Sky News on Saturday. The Member for Flinders echoed criticism from industry magnates in relation to the controversial concept of taxing unrealised gains, stating, 'you may have it in the future, you may not have it in the future, but you will be taxed on it'. 'You may incur a loss in the figure, and you won't get that tax back and that's the principle that we must fight here, because once it's started, it could go anywhere,' indicating that the tax could be extended to a range of other assets including real estate and stocks. 'This is a devilish tax and should be fought by the Coalition parties most stridently, this government is very good at speaking liberal-light in terms of their economic narrative, but it is utterly Whitlam-esque in terms of its impact on the Australian economy'. While the Coalition has vowed to fight the legislation, the bill is expected to pass both houses of parliament unopposed, with the Greens joining with Labor in the Senate despite lobbying for the policy to be levied on those with super accounts over $2 million. 'The point is they're going after money no one yet has, these are paper profits, these are family businesses, these are farms held in super funds that people may well have to liquidate just to pass a putative profit that may not exist when finally realised in years to come," Ms McKenzie said. 'They will need the Greens support in the Senate and as you know, the Greens are pushing to lower that threshold from three million to two million. So, it gives the Australian people a very clear indication of what might happen when Labor and the Greens run the show for the next three years'. The shadow assistant minister then turned her attention to the ongoing political chaos in Tasmania. Liberal Premier Jeremy Rockliff lost a no-confidence motion in parliament on Thursday, with the speaker casting the deciding vote, resulting in the state heading to it's second election in as little as 14 months. Ms McKenzie savaged Tasmanian Labor leader Dean Winter for sending the state to a snap winter poll and argued the opposition parties had collectively torpedoed a popularly elected government. 'I think the Tasmanian people would be very disappointed with what's happened this week, basically holding an elected government hostage, so it looks like they will be going back to a mid-winter election. We've all done them and they're horrendous," she said. 'I'm sure the people of Tasmania will not be grateful for being dragged back to the polls so soon after a federal election and indeed just 14 months after a state election." Tasmanians will have to wait until next Tuesday to find out when they will return to the polls, with the parliament scrambling to draft emergency legislation to fund government services of which are due to be tabled on the same day. Independent MPs including Craig Garland have called on the beleaguered Premier to resign, with Mr Rockliff guaranteeing he would not sell off state-owned assets to pay down debt if he won the election, of which served as a key factor in sparking the political row.
ABC News
3 hours ago
- ABC News
A feeling of calm before the storm descends on Tasmanian politics following motion of no-confidence in Jeremy Rockliff
After a wild few days in the crazy world that is Tasmanian politics, Friday felt eerily quiet. For some, it was a reprieve, a day to breathe and reflect on what had just happened and what might happen next. For others, it was more like the kind of silence before a jump scare. If the past few days were a horror movie with the final act being the toppling of the state's leader, then the weekend is a thriller. An uncomfortable wait in suspense with the knowledge that something unknown is just around the corner. But there are so many scenarios that can play out. What Tasmanians know is that by the end of next week something will have changed in the state's political landscape. The Liberals will still be in charge but with a different leader at the helm — someone like Eric Abetz or Michael Ferguson. Or the world will have turned upside down and Labor Leader Dean Winter would have figured out a way to govern with just 10 MPs, leaning on the support of the crossbench and the Greens. The last option is we're in election mode for the second time within 18 months. Tuesday is D-Day. If things are still at status quo and the supply bills — necessary for public servants to continue to be paid — pass, then Jeremy Rockliff will take a trip to see the Governor. The Governor will consider all of the above options. At this stage, it appears most politicians are resigned to an election being called. But three days is a long time in Tasmanian politics, and a lot can happen. For example, the Liberals — whose war chests are no doubt unprepared for an election or who are worried about losing their seats — could roll Mr Rockliff. Labor, and some members of the crossbench, say that should happen, or Mr Rockliff should fall on his sword and resign. Even fellow Liberal Senator Jonathon Duniam suggested as much on Friday morning. But how likely is that to happen? It is understood some, like Mr Abetz, have already done the numbers and come up short. There's also an understanding in the party that while Mr Abetz certainly has his supporters, he's not everyone's cup of tea. Some worry he'll struggle to get support from the crossbench needed to continue governing, and fear he's too polarising to lead the party to a state election. The other two real contenders are Treasurer Guy Barnett, the architect of last week's budget paper which inspired the motion of no-confidence, and Michael Ferguson who was already banished to the backbench over the Spirit of Tasmania fiasco. There doesn't seem to be a stand-out candidate amongst them. And there's something Jeremy Rockliff's opponents may have underestimated: people really like him. Because if there was one thing everyone could agree on during the motion of no-confidence, Mr Rockliff is a nice guy. Of course. the motion wasn't about his personality — after all nice is great, but it's not enough to lead a state. Nice doesn't pay off the almost $11 billion in debt that Tasmania is expected to rack up in four years' time and it hasn't helped build the berth for the new Spirit of Tasmania ships on time. Then there's the stadium cap. It is unlikely that the average Tasmanian heard "$375 million" — on capital when it was mentioned — "and not a red cent more" and realised it included hundreds of millions of dollars in borrowings. It might not technically be able to be called a broken promise yet, but, for the general public it's the vibe of the thing and the vibe is off. Not to mention Mr Rockliff's plans to cut the public service and sell off public assets were decidedly controversial. There are many valid reasons that Labor and the crossbench had when they spoke about why they were supporting the motion of no-confidence in Mr Rockliff. And that should not be forgotten. But that niceness, and loyalty, means fellow Liberals have decided that they'll back Mr Rockliff's leadership to the hilt. Even if it means an early election. The other aspect is that the party seems to believe that Mr Rockliff leaving won't be the fix. There is a view that Labor and the crossbench will eventually come after whoever is next. If Tasmanians do head to the polls, some of it is because Labor won't explore the third option: forming a minority government. Greens Leader Rosalie Woodruff was out on Friday, once again offering Mr Winter a quick path to the premiership, or at the very least a conversation. But Mr Winter can't say it enough (apparently) that there is no world in which he leans on the Greens for any kind of support. While Dr Woodruff may argue that the parties' values are more aligned, Mr Winter sees the Greens as toxic for Labor. So if Labor doesn't want to govern, why did it raise the no-confidence motion? Some have suggested (tablespoon of salt because it's mostly Liberals) that Mr Winter simply wanted to knock off a more popular opponent. Whatever the motivation, it's done now and there is a very real chance Mr Winter will be heading to his first election as leader. It's unlikely to be an easy one. While Labor is blaming the Liberals for the election and the Liberals are blaming Labor, the public is blaming all politicians, in particular the major parties. Labor's copping blame for starting the whole mess in the first place. It was playing with fire when it challenged the crossbench MPs, who swiftly rose to the occasion. Mr Winter may have been hoping the premier would backdown and resign, but he would've known that an election was a serious possibility. They went through something similar back in November, when the Greens raised a no-confidence motion and Mr Rockliff declared that he'd ask for an election to be called if it passed. Turns out he wasn't bluffing. Labor's also going to have to face up to the stadium issue. The anti-stadium crowd knows Labor is pro-stadium and team, and won't trust it. While the pro-stadium crowd is enraged that Labor is putting it all in jeopardy — the Liberals are somehow escaping this criticism. Meanwhile, the Liberals are getting the blame because yes — as Labor has pointed out — they are choosing to seek an election instead of a new leader, backed into a corner or not. The fact is, the blood was in the water. People were getting frustrated with the Liberal government. But as angry as people were with a government that's been in power for 11 years, the general sentiment seems to be that it is just too soon for another election Mr Winter's got five weeks to convince Tasmanians he made the right move in toppling the premier, rather than letting the government bleed out a little longer.
Sky News AU
5 hours ago
- Sky News AU
Legal challenge against Woodside extension expected
The federal government is expected to face a legal challenge on the approval of Woodside Energy's North West Shelf gas plant extension. Environmental and Indigenous activists say the gas plant threatens the erosion of rock art in the area. Labor has agreed to give "Save Our Songlines" founder Raelene Cooper at least three days' notice before formal approval of the project. The commitment will give the traditional custodians an opportunity to file an injunction against the decision.
