MSTR and SMLR: Brett Knoblauch Picks the Best Bitcoin Treasury Stocks to Buy

Yahoo

2 days ago

Cryptocurrency has come a long way since Bitcoin's debut in 2009. Over the past decade and a half, the space has captured global attention, dominated headlines, and gone through wild cycles of boom and bust. Today, thousands of cryptocurrencies circulate on the market, and while global regulation is still taking shape, under the new administration the U.S. framework is advancing rapidly in a distinctly positive direction.
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For investors looking to cut through the noise, one compelling option lies in Bitcoin treasuries. These are public companies that hold Bitcoin as a strategic asset, aiming to benefit from its long-term value appreciation.
Covering the sector for Cantor, analyst Brett Knoblauch gives us the background and points the way toward finding sound investments.
'What makes a good Bitcoin treasury company? A successful Bitcoin treasury company needs access to capital. Without capital, they simply cannot acquire Bitcoin. The amount of capital a company has access to in this space is largely driven by trading liquidity. For shares to have a relatively high amount of volume, we believe they need to have a management team that carries weight in the crypto ecosystem,' Knoblauch opined. 'However, not all Bitcoin treasury companies are created equal, and we believe some offer better risk/reward than others.'
The Cantor digital expert goes on to put his background research to work – and he's tagged Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) and Semler Scientific (NASDAQ:SMLR) as two of the best bitcoin treasury stocks to buy right now. Let's give them a closer look and find out what makes these stocks so compelling.
Strategy
The first stock on our list is MSTR. Formerly known as MicroStrategy, the company rebranded itself earlier this year as Strategy, and its stylized 'B' logo points to the company's core work. Strategy is a Bitcoin treasury, but more importantly, it was the first Bitcoin treasury. The company has been buying up Bitcoin since 2020, and today its holdings total 607,770. At current prices, that digital asset is worth approximately $72 billion. Strategy is the world's largest corporate holder of Bitcoin.
As a Bitcoin treasury, some of Strategy's vital stats are a bit different than those of most other public companies. A look at the last quarterly report, covering 1Q25, shows this. Strategy reported strong results on several important KPIs related to its Bitcoin business. These include the 'BTC Yield,' which was listed as 13.7%; the 'BTC Gain' of 61,497; and the 'BTC $ Gain' of $5.8 billion. These performance indicators were given 'year-to-date,' as of April 28, and show that Strategy's bitcoin treasury business was performing well in the first four months of this year.
In addition to its expanding role as a Bitcoin treasury, Strategy also maintains a legacy software business – and boasts that it is the world's largest 'independent, publicly traded business intelligence company.' The company provides cloud-native business intelligence software solutions, along with AI-powered, enterprise-scale data analytics services, for subscription customers. The company generated $111 million in revenue from its software business during the first quarter, a total that was down 3.6% year-over-year. Within that figure, subscription revenue rose 61.6% year-over-year, to reach $37.1 million. Strategy will announce Q2 earnings today (July 31) after the close.
For Cantor's Knoblauch, the key point here is Strategy's role as the largest Bitcoin treasury. The analyst notes that this company was the first into that niche, and had taken a large lead – which bodes well for Strategy's future. Knoblauch writes, 'MSTR created the segment, and it has a Bitcoin stack that is unlikely to ever be matched by another entity. Assuming MSTR acquires ~$20bn worth of BTC a year, this puts MSTR on track to reach 1m BTC in just over three years, and that assumes BTC compounds at a 30% CAGR. The sheer size of MSTR's BTC stack combined with capital markets innovation makes MSTR a must-own name in this space, in our view. If BTC is going to $1m, which we think is highly likely at some point in the future, MSTR could be one of the largest companies in the world.'
These comments back up the analyst's selection of MSTR as his top Bitcoin treasury pick, and his Overweight (i.e., Buy) rating on MSTR. The analyst's $680 price target indicates potential for a 72% upside in the year ahead. (To watch Knoblauch's track record, click here)
Strategy has earned a Strong Buy consensus rating from the Street's analysts, based on 12 recent reviews that feature a lopsided split of 11 Buys to 1 Sell. The stock is priced at $395.04, and its $547.75 average price target implies a one-year upside potential of 39%. (See MSTR stock forecast)
Semler Scientific
The next stock on our list, Semler Scientific, has an interesting similarity to Strategy – like the Bitcoin treasury leader, Semler Scientific got its start in a different field and came to the Bitcoin treasury niche later on. Semler started out in the medical sciences field, as a developer and provider of innovative medical products and services. On this side, the company's chief product is QuantaFlo, an FDA-cleared point-of-care product used in the early diagnosis of vascular disease. The device has been found helpful in diagnosing asymptomatic patients.
In May 2024, however, Semler started to chart a new path by purchasing Bitcoin to hold as a digital asset. Since then, the company has amassed 5,021 bitcoins in its holdings, which are worth approximately $595 million. This makes Semler the 15th largest Bitcoin treasury on the global scene and the fourth largest in the US. Semler has an aggressive Bitcoin purchase strategy and aims to hold at least 10,000 bitcoins by the end of this year – and to acquire 105,000 by the end of 2027. The company's purchase plan is based on a combination of equity, debt financing, and operational cash flows.
Along with its aggressive purchase plan, Semler is also packing its Board of Directors with Bitcoin experts. The latest addition, announced this past June, is bitcoin market researcher Joe Burnett. Burnett has a reputation as an unabashed booster of Bitcoin as an advanced digital asset.
Turning to the company's last earnings report for 1Q25 and its bitcoin KPIs, we find that Semler's BTC yield through May 12 this year came to 22.2%; its BTC gain for the same period was 510.3; and its BTC $ gain, also through May 12 this year, came to $52 million.
Semler reported $8.8 million in revenue for Q1, down 44% from the prior-year period. We should note that in 1Q24, Semler's primary business was still in the medical field; its switch to a Bitcoin treasury-centered strategy came during the second quarter of last year.
Knoblauch, in his write-up of Semler, is impressed by the company's ability to swiftly embrace this new field and to quickly amass a significant bitcoin holding. He says of the company, 'SMLR was the second company in the US to pursue a Bitcoin treasury strategy. Unlike MSTR, whose core business is to raise capital and buy Bitcoin, SMLR was using excess cash on its balance sheet to acquire Bitcoin. More recently, it began raising money to buy Bitcoin… SMLR has increased its focus on Bitcoin, as it has recently hired a new Chief Bitcoin Officer (Joe Burnett) and added Natalie Brunell, a top-rated Bitcoin podcast host, to its BoD. The company is targeting 105k Bitcoin by the end of 2027E, and given this target, SMLR being one of the least expensive Bitcoin treasury names, we think risk/reward is attractive.'
Knoblauch rates SMLR as Overweight (i.e., Buy), with a $61 price target that suggests the shares will gain 70% over the next 12 months.
All 3 of the recent reviews on SMLR are positive, giving the stock a unanimous Strong Buy consensus rating. The stock is currently trading for $35.91, and its average price target of $85.67 implies an upside potential of a hefty 138.5% for the year ahead. (See SMLR stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
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