How Oasis ruined the Socceroos' plans for a 20-year anniversary clash with Uruguay
As Football Australia plots the Socceroos' road to the 2026 World Cup, they must juggle a mix of competing interests - commercial, political, technical and logistical - while navigating domestic hurdles like venue availability and government backing, plus the shifting international landscape, where potential opponents are suddenly ruled in or out, depending on their own qualification campaigns or asking prices.
Then there's the pursuit of FIFA ranking points, which could determine whether Australia ends up with a favourable draw or a group of death, and thus presents another dilemma: is it better to face 'easier' nations and chase wins, or go for tougher assignments you might lose, but learn more from?
'We want to experience as much as possible'
These are good problems to have. Direct World Cup qualification has plenty of advantages, like enabling Football Australia to get 'ahead of the game', as Popovic put it, with reconnaissance on possible hotels and training venues for the tournament; the federation is sending staff to the three co-host nations, the United States, Canada and Mexico, in the coming weeks.
In avoiding the play-offs, it also meant they had five free international windows to fill up: September, October and November 2025, and March and June 2026. It's a situation Australia hasn't faced since the last time they qualified directly, back in 2013 under Holger Osieck.
Preliminary talks with other national associations about potential friendlies tend to begin many months in advance, but games can only be booked once there is certainty about their qualification or otherwise.
Popovic's ask is simple: 'To try and cover as many different styles and confederations as possible,' he said this week.
'If we can cover, hopefully, an African team, South American team, European team … that will help in terms of preparation and just having the different styles that you come up against. Is it a pressing team, is it a team that sits back? Do they build up, don't build up - so you get a little bit of an understanding of the different countries and how they like to play. We want to experience as much as possible.
'That's what we're trying to do. Then there's the other side of trying to get a Uruguay - can they come, how much do they cost? There are many things that come into that; it's not just about plucking someone out, come to Australia to play us.
'I'm sure the FA is doing everything they can to support us to bring, if it's here, good opposition … [but] it changes daily. One moment you think you've got someone, and they've got another idea and other plans.'
Football Australia moved quickly to lock in a two-match home-and-away series in September against New Zealand, who have also qualified through Oceania, for the Soccer Ashes trophy that was re-discovered two years ago. This week, a friendly against the United States on October 14 in Colorado was confirmed, to go with an earlier announcement of a showdown with fellow co-hosts Canada in Montreal four days earlier - both valuable opportunities to experience World Cup conditions and facilities.
Football Australia wants to play two games at home in the November window, but finding an opponent is proving tricky.
UEFA qualification goes through until the end of that month, which rules out a European team - and the prospect dream of a clash with the likes of Italy, or England, on Aussie soil. It leaves two realistic options: South America or Africa.
The issue is that the best nations are very reluctant to travel so far. A big, fat cheque could persuade them, but even with government support and the right venue, that sort of money is beyond FA's current reach. Argentina, according to reports, charge around $7.5 million per match - so a two-game series in Australia would cost $15 million, plus on-the-ground expenses. Brazil, sources say, have asked for a similar fee.
Other countries might want less, but would be less commercially appealing, and would still rather not come out all this way.
And the trouble with Africa is that the first round of their World Cup qualification campaign ends in October, which leaves a very short runway for matches to be organised involving any of the nine teams that make it through.
The likely outcome for November, according to sources, is a clash with a lower-ranked South American team or one of the African qualifiers, with talks ongoing for one of the two games to take place at Sydney's CommBank Stadium.
Why ranking points matter so much
What happens after that will be dictated to some extent by what happens in December, when the World Cup draw is conducted, and groups are created from the 48 teams split across four pots. The profile of the teams in Australia's group could dictate the kind of opponents Popovic would want in the March window - which will probably take place in Europe - and then in June, when there are tentative plans for a farewell game on home soil before the Socceroos relocate to North America ahead of the World Cup, which kicks off on June 11.
But the other element that will factor into things is Australia's FIFA ranking. Currently No.24 in the world, having moved up two places after the June window, the Socceroos sit on the edge of pots two and three. To give themselves the best statistical chance of a softer group, they will most likely need to be inside the top 23 to finish in pot two and thus avoid playing against one of the other teams in it - the likes of Croatia, Morocco and Colombia, as things stand.
To do that, they need to win as many matches as they can before the draw.
However, the nature of the draw mechanics - this being the first World Cup with 48 teams - means that no matter what they do, there could still be dangerous floaters, such as Italy, Greece and Serbia, in pot four.
Former Socceroos boss Graham Arnold was highly strategic when it came to ranking points, but Popovic seems to be taking a more relaxed approach, and said he was not thinking about those permutations, though FA staff certainly are on his behalf.
Popovic has his own balancing act to deal with. Most fans would like to see him experiment over the next 12 months, and try players who haven't featured much or at all for the Socceroos in his short reign to date - like Watford-bound Nestory Irankunda, or departed A-League stars Adrian Segecic, Noah Botic and Nicolas Milanovic, who have landed at Portsmouth, Austria Wien and Aberdeen respectively this off-season.
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He is open to change, suggesting he feels no sense of obligation towards those who have helped them qualify in terms of them making his final squad for the World Cup.
But Popovic doesn't want to simply hand out caps.
'When we say trying players for the national team, they still must earn their call,' he said.
'It's not about, okay, I heard some guy scored two goals and yeah, great, we'll just give them a call to the national team. It doesn't go like that.
'Trying players that haven't maybe had an opportunity now that earn the opportunity, that deserve an opportunity to be looked at, I'm all for that.
'I'm pretty open. I don't have a set team or a set squad that's going to the World Cup. This one achieved something special, and the 23 - or I hope it's 26 players - that go to the World Cup, the final squad, I want them all there because they firstly deserve to be there and that they can make an impact at the World Cup.'
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