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While some analysts have predicted even steeper declines, the estimate from Enphase marks one of the first big projections from an industry player since Trump's spending bill was passed. The company is among the first US solar companies to report earnings this quarter.
Enphase Chief Executive Officer Badri Kothandaraman warned Tuesday that residents who want to install solar and home batteries will have to move toward financing the systems with third-party leases, which will still qualify for tax incentives next year.
'I expect the lease market to be increasing a little bit and the cash and loan market to decrease by a lot' next year, he said during the company's second-quarter earnings call.
The yanking of federal government support is hitting the industry after home solar installers had already been facing headwinds, including persistently high interest rates that have made it more expensive for residents to buy panels. Two major home solar financiers have filed for bankruptcy so far this year. Trump's new tax-and-spending law passed earlier this month will eliminate tax incentives for residential solar purchases by year end. However, companies that lease panels can claim the incentive through 2027.
Analysts at BloombergNEF expect residential solar installations to increase about 13% this year compared with last year as homeowners rush to take advantage of expiring tax credits. However, BNEF sees the market shrinking by 35% in 2026.
To adjust, Enphase will pivot toward working with more leasing companies as well as focus on reducing customer acquisition and installation costs, Kothandaraman said.
Enphase shares fell about 7% in after-market trading after the company forecast third-quarter revenue that missed analyst estimates.
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