The long climb: Disaster for Coalition in new opinion poll as Albanese builds on record win
But the new Resolve Political Monitor also shows that the dire situation confronting Ley has not translated into a surge of support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, even as voters believe Labor is better able to deal with issues ranging from the economy to national security.
The 48th Parliament will on Tuesday sit for the first time since the May 3 election. Albanese holds a record 94 seats in the House of Representatives after trouncing the Coalition 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis.
At the election, the Coalition's primary vote dropped almost four percentage points to 31.8 per cent. The Resolve poll shows its primary support has fallen another three points to just 29 per cent – its lowest level since early 2023.
Most of that drop has flowed to One Nation, with Labor's primary vote increasing marginally to 35 per cent. It secured 34.6 per cent at the May election.
On a two-party preferred level, based on preferences as nominated by the 2311 people who took part in the poll, Labor leads the Coalition 56-44.
Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed said the Coalition was now in 'real strife', arguing that while the party needed a primary vote in the 40s to be competitive, it was struggling to get into the 30s.
However, he cautioned that Albanese was not enjoying the honeymoon he had following the 2022 election, when Labor's primary vote regularly reached 42 per cent.

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

Sydney Morning Herald
24 minutes ago
- Sydney Morning Herald
Australia news LIVE: Gaza ceasefire talks collapse; Marles and Wong to meet UK counterparts in Sydney; Hulk Hogan dead at 71
Latest posts Latest posts 6.58am Trump rejects wanting to destroy Musk's companies as Tesla shares plunge Donald Trump denied he was seeking to ruin the business empire of his onetime ally Elon Musk as retribution for their dispute over the US president's signature tax law. 'I want Elon, and all businesses within our Country, to THRIVE,' Trump posted Thursday on social media, though it was unclear exactly what comments he was responding to. 'The better they do, the better the USA does, and that's good for all of us. We are setting records every day, and I want to keep it that way!' the president added. Shares of Tesla lost more than 8 per cent in New York during the first trading session since the company reported a steep decline in revenue and Musk warned of difficult times ahead for his electric vehicle maker. The stock had declined 18 per cent this year through Wednesday's close. 6.54am Ghislaine Maxwell meets DOJ amid Epstein saga Deputy US Attorney-General Todd Blanche held a meeting with sex-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein's imprisoned associate Ghislaine Maxwell at the US attorney's office in Tallahassee, Florida, ABC News reported on Friday AEST. The meeting was widely anticipated, after Blanche announced earlier in the week that he had reached out to Maxwell's lawyers to see if she might have 'information about anyone who has committed crimes against victims.' Maxwell is serving a 20-year term at a federal prison in Tallahassee, after a jury convicted her of helping Epstein to abuse underage girls. She is appealing her sentence. The meeting is part of an ongoing Justice Department effort to cast itself as transparent following fierce backlash from parts of President Donald Trump's base over an earlier refusal to release additional records in the Epstein investigation. AP, Reuters 6.50am What's making news today By Daniel Lo Surdo Hello and welcome to the national news live blog. My name is Daniel Lo Surdo, and I'll be helming our live coverage this morning. Here's what is making news today: Gaza ceasefire negotiations have collapsed in Qatar, with United States mediators returning home after blaming Hamas for the breakdown in talks. The departure of American negotiators follows the same move from Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu hours earlier, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff saying his team would 'now consider alternative options' to secure stability in the region. Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong will meet their United Kingdom counterparts in Sydney, two days after this masthead confirmed Australia had paid the United States another $800 million towards the AUKUS submarine deal under review by the Trump administration. It comes as the Albanese government lifts its import ban on US beef, a key restriction raised by Trump for his proposed sweeping tariffs on Australian goods. Professional wrestling icon Hulk Hogan has died at the age of 71. Hogan was pronounced dead at a Florida hospital after authorities responded to a call about a cardiac arrest on Thursday morning (local time), with local police saying there were 'no signs of foul play or suspicious activity' associated with Hogan's death. US President Donald Trump was among those paying tribute to Hogan, saying his cultural impact was 'massive'. The Australian sharemarket is expected to retreat on Friday, as Wall Street hangs near its records in afternoon trading. The ASX fell on Thursday, with Macquarie shares among the biggest laggards on the bourse. It comes as Trump visited US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Thursday afternoon (local time), two days after Trump labelled Powell a 'numbskull' who will be 'out pretty soon'.

The Age
24 minutes ago
- The Age
Australia news LIVE: Gaza ceasefire talks collapse; Marles and Wong to meet UK counterparts in Sydney; Hulk Hogan dead at 71
Latest posts Latest posts 6.58am Trump rejects wanting to destroy Musk's companies as Tesla shares plunge Donald Trump denied he was seeking to ruin the business empire of his onetime ally Elon Musk as retribution for their dispute over the US president's signature tax law. 'I want Elon, and all businesses within our Country, to THRIVE,' Trump posted Thursday on social media, though it was unclear exactly what comments he was responding to. 'The better they do, the better the USA does, and that's good for all of us. We are setting records every day, and I want to keep it that way!' the president added. Shares of Tesla lost more than 8 per cent in New York during the first trading session since the company reported a steep decline in revenue and Musk warned of difficult times ahead for his electric vehicle maker. The stock had declined 18 per cent this year through Wednesday's close. 6.54am Ghislaine Maxwell meets DOJ amid Epstein saga Deputy US Attorney-General Todd Blanche held a meeting with sex-trafficker Jeffrey Epstein's imprisoned associate Ghislaine Maxwell at the US attorney's office in Tallahassee, Florida, ABC News reported on Friday AEST. The meeting was widely anticipated, after Blanche announced earlier in the week that he had reached out to Maxwell's lawyers to see if she might have 'information about anyone who has committed crimes against victims.' Maxwell is serving a 20-year term at a federal prison in Tallahassee, after a jury convicted her of helping Epstein to abuse underage girls. She is appealing her sentence. The meeting is part of an ongoing Justice Department effort to cast itself as transparent following fierce backlash from parts of President Donald Trump's base over an earlier refusal to release additional records in the Epstein investigation. AP, Reuters 6.50am What's making news today By Daniel Lo Surdo Hello and welcome to the national news live blog. My name is Daniel Lo Surdo, and I'll be helming our live coverage this morning. Here's what is making news today: Gaza ceasefire negotiations have collapsed in Qatar, with United States mediators returning home after blaming Hamas for the breakdown in talks. The departure of American negotiators follows the same move from Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu hours earlier, with US special envoy Steve Witkoff saying his team would 'now consider alternative options' to secure stability in the region. Defence Minister Richard Marles and Foreign Minister Penny Wong will meet their United Kingdom counterparts in Sydney, two days after this masthead confirmed Australia had paid the United States another $800 million towards the AUKUS submarine deal under review by the Trump administration. It comes as the Albanese government lifts its import ban on US beef, a key restriction raised by Trump for his proposed sweeping tariffs on Australian goods. Professional wrestling icon Hulk Hogan has died at the age of 71. Hogan was pronounced dead at a Florida hospital after authorities responded to a call about a cardiac arrest on Thursday morning (local time), with local police saying there were 'no signs of foul play or suspicious activity' associated with Hogan's death. US President Donald Trump was among those paying tribute to Hogan, saying his cultural impact was 'massive'. The Australian sharemarket is expected to retreat on Friday, as Wall Street hangs near its records in afternoon trading. The ASX fell on Thursday, with Macquarie shares among the biggest laggards on the bourse. It comes as Trump visited US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell on Thursday afternoon (local time), two days after Trump labelled Powell a 'numbskull' who will be 'out pretty soon'.


The Advertiser
2 hours ago
- The Advertiser
Risk of higher US tariffs looms despite beef deal
Australia's move to lift restrictions on US beef is unlikely to shift the dial on tariff negotiations, as the nation's products face the possibility of even steeper duties. The Albanese government will allow access to US beef that has been raised in Canada or Mexico but processed in America, following a safety review. Australia is subject to a baseline 10 per cent tariff applied by the Trump administration and has been keeping an eye on the trade negotiations of other countries. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said Donald Trump's flagged higher tariffs might include the nation's exports. "The risk for Australia is that we may be lucky to hang on to 10 per cent, which could actually turn out to be higher," he told AAP. "This (beef decision) might help us hang on to 10 per cent or avoid a worse outcome, but I don't think there's any guarantees of that." American beef was banned from Australia almost two decades ago following an outbreak of mad cow disease. Mr Trump has pressured the government to ease restrictions as Labor argues for an exemption from the tariffs as part of the US president's deepening trade war. Former ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos said while biosecurity investigations can take a while to finalise, it was a "sensible outcome". "The challenge here is it doesn't look like we're putting together a package deal," he said. "It'd be better if there was a package approach to this if we're seeking to gather an overall trade outcome with the US." Australian Farm Institute executive director Katie McRobert said the cattle industry has been "extremely nervous" about biosecurity traceability from different parts of the north and South America regions. "We wouldn't expect a significant impact on Australian producers from the potential to import American beef ... because we already produce far more beef in Australia than we can possibly eat," she said. Trade Minister Don Farrell said he didn't have any meetings scheduled with American counterparts after last meeting US trade representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of an OECD ministerial meeting in Paris in June. Senator Farrell said Mr Greer didn't raise beef concerns at that meeting. "We believe that America should lift those tariffs on Australia, there's no justification whatsoever for the United States to apply tariffs to Australia," he told reporters in Canberra on Thursday. "We have a free trade agreement, that agreement makes it very clear that it's a tariff free arrangement." Senator Farrell also denied the move was to create a bargaining chip. The Philippines and Japan recently struck agreements with the US to lower their tariff rates, but both are still above the 10 per cent baseline. Australia's move to lift restrictions on US beef is unlikely to shift the dial on tariff negotiations, as the nation's products face the possibility of even steeper duties. The Albanese government will allow access to US beef that has been raised in Canada or Mexico but processed in America, following a safety review. Australia is subject to a baseline 10 per cent tariff applied by the Trump administration and has been keeping an eye on the trade negotiations of other countries. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said Donald Trump's flagged higher tariffs might include the nation's exports. "The risk for Australia is that we may be lucky to hang on to 10 per cent, which could actually turn out to be higher," he told AAP. "This (beef decision) might help us hang on to 10 per cent or avoid a worse outcome, but I don't think there's any guarantees of that." American beef was banned from Australia almost two decades ago following an outbreak of mad cow disease. Mr Trump has pressured the government to ease restrictions as Labor argues for an exemption from the tariffs as part of the US president's deepening trade war. Former ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos said while biosecurity investigations can take a while to finalise, it was a "sensible outcome". "The challenge here is it doesn't look like we're putting together a package deal," he said. "It'd be better if there was a package approach to this if we're seeking to gather an overall trade outcome with the US." Australian Farm Institute executive director Katie McRobert said the cattle industry has been "extremely nervous" about biosecurity traceability from different parts of the north and South America regions. "We wouldn't expect a significant impact on Australian producers from the potential to import American beef ... because we already produce far more beef in Australia than we can possibly eat," she said. Trade Minister Don Farrell said he didn't have any meetings scheduled with American counterparts after last meeting US trade representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of an OECD ministerial meeting in Paris in June. Senator Farrell said Mr Greer didn't raise beef concerns at that meeting. "We believe that America should lift those tariffs on Australia, there's no justification whatsoever for the United States to apply tariffs to Australia," he told reporters in Canberra on Thursday. "We have a free trade agreement, that agreement makes it very clear that it's a tariff free arrangement." Senator Farrell also denied the move was to create a bargaining chip. The Philippines and Japan recently struck agreements with the US to lower their tariff rates, but both are still above the 10 per cent baseline. Australia's move to lift restrictions on US beef is unlikely to shift the dial on tariff negotiations, as the nation's products face the possibility of even steeper duties. The Albanese government will allow access to US beef that has been raised in Canada or Mexico but processed in America, following a safety review. Australia is subject to a baseline 10 per cent tariff applied by the Trump administration and has been keeping an eye on the trade negotiations of other countries. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said Donald Trump's flagged higher tariffs might include the nation's exports. "The risk for Australia is that we may be lucky to hang on to 10 per cent, which could actually turn out to be higher," he told AAP. "This (beef decision) might help us hang on to 10 per cent or avoid a worse outcome, but I don't think there's any guarantees of that." American beef was banned from Australia almost two decades ago following an outbreak of mad cow disease. Mr Trump has pressured the government to ease restrictions as Labor argues for an exemption from the tariffs as part of the US president's deepening trade war. Former ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos said while biosecurity investigations can take a while to finalise, it was a "sensible outcome". "The challenge here is it doesn't look like we're putting together a package deal," he said. "It'd be better if there was a package approach to this if we're seeking to gather an overall trade outcome with the US." Australian Farm Institute executive director Katie McRobert said the cattle industry has been "extremely nervous" about biosecurity traceability from different parts of the north and South America regions. "We wouldn't expect a significant impact on Australian producers from the potential to import American beef ... because we already produce far more beef in Australia than we can possibly eat," she said. Trade Minister Don Farrell said he didn't have any meetings scheduled with American counterparts after last meeting US trade representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of an OECD ministerial meeting in Paris in June. Senator Farrell said Mr Greer didn't raise beef concerns at that meeting. "We believe that America should lift those tariffs on Australia, there's no justification whatsoever for the United States to apply tariffs to Australia," he told reporters in Canberra on Thursday. "We have a free trade agreement, that agreement makes it very clear that it's a tariff free arrangement." Senator Farrell also denied the move was to create a bargaining chip. The Philippines and Japan recently struck agreements with the US to lower their tariff rates, but both are still above the 10 per cent baseline. Australia's move to lift restrictions on US beef is unlikely to shift the dial on tariff negotiations, as the nation's products face the possibility of even steeper duties. The Albanese government will allow access to US beef that has been raised in Canada or Mexico but processed in America, following a safety review. Australia is subject to a baseline 10 per cent tariff applied by the Trump administration and has been keeping an eye on the trade negotiations of other countries. AMP chief economist Shane Oliver said Donald Trump's flagged higher tariffs might include the nation's exports. "The risk for Australia is that we may be lucky to hang on to 10 per cent, which could actually turn out to be higher," he told AAP. "This (beef decision) might help us hang on to 10 per cent or avoid a worse outcome, but I don't think there's any guarantees of that." American beef was banned from Australia almost two decades ago following an outbreak of mad cow disease. Mr Trump has pressured the government to ease restrictions as Labor argues for an exemption from the tariffs as part of the US president's deepening trade war. Former ambassador to the US Arthur Sinodinos said while biosecurity investigations can take a while to finalise, it was a "sensible outcome". "The challenge here is it doesn't look like we're putting together a package deal," he said. "It'd be better if there was a package approach to this if we're seeking to gather an overall trade outcome with the US." Australian Farm Institute executive director Katie McRobert said the cattle industry has been "extremely nervous" about biosecurity traceability from different parts of the north and South America regions. "We wouldn't expect a significant impact on Australian producers from the potential to import American beef ... because we already produce far more beef in Australia than we can possibly eat," she said. Trade Minister Don Farrell said he didn't have any meetings scheduled with American counterparts after last meeting US trade representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of an OECD ministerial meeting in Paris in June. Senator Farrell said Mr Greer didn't raise beef concerns at that meeting. "We believe that America should lift those tariffs on Australia, there's no justification whatsoever for the United States to apply tariffs to Australia," he told reporters in Canberra on Thursday. "We have a free trade agreement, that agreement makes it very clear that it's a tariff free arrangement." Senator Farrell also denied the move was to create a bargaining chip. The Philippines and Japan recently struck agreements with the US to lower their tariff rates, but both are still above the 10 per cent baseline.