The long climb: Disaster for Coalition in new opinion poll as Albanese builds on record win
But the new Resolve Political Monitor also shows that the dire situation confronting Ley has not translated into a surge of support for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, even as voters believe Labor is better able to deal with issues ranging from the economy to national security.
The 48th Parliament will on Tuesday sit for the first time since the May 3 election. Albanese holds a record 94 seats in the House of Representatives after trouncing the Coalition 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis.
At the election, the Coalition's primary vote dropped almost four percentage points to 31.8 per cent. The Resolve poll shows its primary support has fallen another three points to just 29 per cent – its lowest level since early 2023.
Most of that drop has flowed to One Nation, with Labor's primary vote increasing marginally to 35 per cent. It secured 34.6 per cent at the May election.
On a two-party preferred level, based on preferences as nominated by the 2311 people who took part in the poll, Labor leads the Coalition 56-44.
Resolve Strategic director Jim Reed said the Coalition was now in 'real strife', arguing that while the party needed a primary vote in the 40s to be competitive, it was struggling to get into the 30s.
However, he cautioned that Albanese was not enjoying the honeymoon he had following the 2022 election, when Labor's primary vote regularly reached 42 per cent.
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"The challenge here is it doesn't look like we're putting together a package deal," he said. "It'd be better if there was a package approach to this if we're seeking to gather an overall trade outcome with the US." Australian Farm Institute executive director Katie McRobert said the cattle industry has been "extremely nervous" about biosecurity traceability from different parts of the north and South America regions. "We wouldn't expect a significant impact on Australian producers from the potential to import American beef ... because we already produce far more beef in Australia than we can possibly eat," she said. Trade Minister Don Farrell said he didn't have any meetings scheduled with American counterparts after last meeting US trade representative Jamieson Greer on the sidelines of an OECD ministerial meeting in Paris in June. Senator Farrell said Mr Greer didn't raise beef concerns at that meeting. "We believe that America should lift those tariffs on Australia, there's no justification whatsoever for the United States to apply tariffs to Australia," he told reporters in Canberra on Thursday. "We have a free trade agreement, that agreement makes it very clear that it's a tariff free arrangement." Senator Farrell also denied the move was to create a bargaining chip. The Philippines and Japan recently struck agreements with the US to lower their tariff rates, but both are still above the 10 per cent baseline.
