Stats SA decries suggestions unemployment rate overstated after data questioned
JOHANNESBURG - Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) has pushed back on suggestions that the country's unemployment rate is overstated after its data was called into question.
Capitec Bank CEO Gerrie Fourie sparked debate this week when he called for unemployment figures to be revised, claiming that informal traders in townships or villages were being misclassified or ignored by Stats SA.
Fourie believes the official unemployment rate is closer to 10% and not the current reading of 32.9% reported by Stats SA in the first quarter figures.
ALSO READ:
• ActionSA calls on Ramaphosa to fire Labour Minister Meth over worsening unemployment rate
• Concern over South Africa's first quarter jobs bloodbath
Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke said the informal economy was not being ignored.
He said this sector was accounted for in the Quarterly Labour Force Survey and the Survey of Employers and Self-Employed.
Maluleke believes the data by the agency is beyond reproach.
"I have no reason whatsoever to believe that members of the public are misleading us in relation to their employment status.
"This data we are collecting has been showing consistency over time in terms of how employment occurs. Otherwise, at some stage, we would have picked it up."
South Africa's unemployment rate is among the highest in the world, something Stats SA said needed the intervention of government, business, civil society.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
IOL News
2 hours ago
- IOL News
Understanding the 5. 2 percent rise in South Africa's residential property price inflation for January 2025
Stats SA reports a modest increase in residential property price inflation across Mzansi. Image: Simphiwe Mbokazi The annual national residential property price inflation was 5.2% in January 2025, an increase from a revised 5.1% in December 2024. This is according to the Residential Property Price Index January 2025, released by Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) on Thursday. The data showed that the residential property price index (RPPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January 2025. 'The main contributors to the 5.2% annual national inflation rate were Western Cape (8.7% and contributing 3.3 percentage points) and Gauteng (2.3% and contributing 0.9 of a percentage point). The RPPI for all metropolitan areas increased by 5.0% between January last year and January this year. The main contributors to the 5.0% annual inflation rate for metropolitan areas were City of Cape Town (8.5% and contributing 3.1 percentage points) and City of Johannesburg (2.3% and contributing 0.5 of a percentage point). The annual national residential property price inflation is generally a positive indicator for the local property market, says Dr Farai Nyika, an academic at the Management College of Southern Africa(MANCOSA). He said both property developers and existing homeowners depend on, and benefit from, sustained price inflation to realise returns on their long-term investments. However, he said that one significant consequence of rising property values is that municipalities periodically revalue properties, which often results in higher property rates for owners. 'For prospective property investors, it is important to note that real returns are only achieved when property price inflation exceeds the annual consumer inflation rate, inclusive of all associated costs (such as rates, taxes, maintenance, and transaction fees). Rising property prices also stimulate demand in related industries, including hardware suppliers, cement producers, and manufacturers of construction materials. This, in turn, supports job retention and the creation of new employment opportunities, which is particularly important in the context of South Africa's challenging economic climate,' Nyika said. The academic said that conversely, Cape Town is increasingly becoming unaffordable for many first-time buyers, placing them at risk of becoming perpetual renters. He said as people tend to 'vote with their feet', the city - despite being an attractive and desirable destination - continues to reinforce generational divisions along the lines of income and property affordability. The RPPI for properties sold for the first time increased by 6.0% between January 2024 and January 2025. The index increased by 0.3% month-on-month in January 2025. The RPPI for resold properties increased by 5.9% between January 2024 and January 2025. The index increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January 2025. The RPPI for sectional title properties increased by 3.1% between January 2024 and January 2025. The index increased by 0.4% month-on-month in January 2025. The RPPI for freehold properties increased by 7.1% between January 2024 and January 2025. The index increased by 0.5% month-on-month in January 2025. In a property note released this week, FNB said that looking ahead, the recent series of interest rate cuts is expected to mildly strengthen market conditions in 2025 compared to 2024. However, the bank said that a strong and sustained recovery will depend on achieving significantly improved economic growth. FNB added that it forecasts modest improvement, with growth rising from 0.5% in 2024 to 1.1% in 2025, and reaching 1.9% by 2027. It said it also anticipates that interest rates will likely move sideways for a protracted period following one more expected 25-basis-point cuts in the second half of 2025. While this expected mild improvement in the economic and interest rate environment is welcome, FNB said it may not be sufficient to support sustained real (inflation-adjusted) growth in property income and capital values through the forecast period to 2027. Independent Media Property
The Citizen
3 hours ago
- The Citizen
Taking unemployment lessons from a bank boss who can't count?
There is no way that SA's unemployment rate is only 10%. More than 8.2 million people were unemployed in the first three months of this year, 237 000 more than the three months before. But if Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie is to be believed, most of those don't count. Fourie said this week that the unemployment crisis, which swallows more than one in four people in this country (43.15%), is being inflated and 'is actually around 10%'. He claimed this is because official government statistics exclude those who sell amagwinya and others who rent out their backrooms to put food on the table. He said these hustles are comparable to employment and encouraged entrepreneurship. While most observers will tell you that small and medium business development should be the priority and entrepreneurship is essential to our economic future, surely we shouldn't be encouraging bylaw violations in our grand quest to create jobs? Is suburban decay just job creation? Both townships and suburbs are battling mushrooming land grabs and room renting as the demand for housing in urban areas continues to grow. Away from official statistics, just driving down the road or turning on the tap will show you how much of a strain this has on already frail infrastructure. Illegal connections are found on many streets, hastily built rooms are erected without plans, approvals, or necessary skill, and spaza shops are opened with little regard for food safety. If the millionaire rode down the same street, he might have to dodge the unroadworthy school transport drivers who pack the future generation into a taxi like sardines to maximise profit. We have laws that prohibit these kinds of 'hustles' to protect infrastructure and people's lives. Such criminality should be policed, not encouraged. ALSO READ: A VIEW OF THE WEEK: So what if there is a shack in the back? Making the informal formal Fourie has repeated the call for the unemployment stats to include the informal sector, like other developing nations have. This has been on the request list for 30 years and has been blue-ticked by the government because the sector is so fluid. Defining what sector falls under the informal economy is also problematic and requires regulations. But where do we start regulating and enforcing rules on the taxi industry, or on Tannie Marie selling doilies on Facebook? And what about those in the illicit market? If the person begging for money at a robot is employed, then does that make the drug dealer sharing the corner employed too? Giving government a pass The problem with watering down the definition of employment is that it downplays the government's failures in addressing inequality and job creation. There are dedicated ministries to labour, employment, and small businesses, and yet the scourge of joblessness continues. Instead of holding the government accountable, it gives the impression that SA's job market is far better than it actually is. This may help corporates like Fourie sell a good image when trying to secure international deals, but it invalidates and silences the poor in the country that these businesses are built on the back of. Allowing a corporate bigwig to tweak what employment means is as concerning as sending a billionaire to the White House to present government policy. Sadly, like when Johann Rupert went to visit Donald Trump last month, that has already happened. NOW READ: A VIEW OF THE WEEK: Don't give BEE bully Musk your lunch money
IOL News
4 hours ago
- IOL News
Economists debate the true unemployment rate in South Africa
Debate has been sparked on the unemployment rate in South Africa with suggestions that it could be lower if one considers entrepreneurs and those employed in the informal economy. Image: Ron Lach / Pexels Debate has been sparked on South Africa's unemployment rate after it was suggested that the figure could be much lower than the publicly recorded rate if the role played by the informal sector of the economy is taken into account. Economists weighed in on the issue this week. They said while Statistics South Africa collects quality information to produce statistics on unemployment and GDP, this information could be affected by incorrect data and untruths. Capitec CEO Gerard Fourie first raised the issue and said there should be a rethink of the country's unemployment metric, contending that when the vast informal sector is taken into account, the headline figure of 32.9% could be closer to 10%. The government places the rate of unemployment at about 32%, with the expanded definition of unemployment— which includes people who are despondent and no longer looking for work— at around 50%. Fourie mentioned that Statistics South Africa does not count self-employed people, highlighting that many individuals in the informal economy are selling all kinds of goods and making up to R1000 a day. Independent economic analyst Professor Bonke Dumisa said South Africa has a strict definition of employment and unemployment. 'Yes, it could be true that the unemployment rate is much lower than our statistics show. The fact is that I have travelled to many countries, even those facing much more difficult conditions than us, and they are regarded as doing better than South Africa when it comes to unemployment. This is because South Africa has a very strict definition of employment,' he said. He said a person running a small informal business that makes more money than someone working at a factory is considered unemployed, even though they might be earning more. He added that some people running businesses in the informal economy avoid declaring that income to avoid tax repercussions. Dumisa, however, said the country should not change the definition, as it would distort the real picture of unemployment. 'We should not run away from the fact that we have structural unemployment that is not absorbing the highly qualified people that the country is producing.' Another economist, Dawie Roodt, said, 'Based on the expanded definition of unemployment, which puts unemployment at around 50%, there should be a dire scene of destitute people on the side of the roads. However, we are not seeing that, which suggests that people are earning an income from somewhere, indicating that the real number of unemployment could be lower than it is recorded. 'What we really need to be concerned about when it comes to unemployment is the trajectory of unemployment. It is true that over the years this has been increasing, and that is something we need to be very concerned about.' He added that while Statistics South Africa gathers quality data, people may lie or provide incorrect information, fearing repercussions from SARS or losing their grants. Prof Dieter van Fintel, from the Department of Economics at Stellenbosch University, however, disagreed; he stated that if somebody has done just one hour of work in the week, statistics count them as employed. 'That is, even informal work is captured in the statistics, even if people do not experience this as sustainable 'work' that provides a decent income. Nearly 20% of everyone working in South Africa is in the informal sector. This figure has remained stable across decades. 'The question that economists have wondered is why this figure is so small when unemployment is so high. 'Some of the factors that may impede informal sector participation in South Africa are high crime rates, spatial disparities arising from the Group Areas Act and isolation from supply chains and business networks," he said. Stats SA has also defended its data. It told news channel eNCA that the informal sector is included in reports such as its Quarterly Labour Force Survey. THE MERCURY
