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The Citizen
15-07-2025
- Business
- The Citizen
Why SA has 32.9% unemployment and Zimbabwe 8%
We're counting different things. Someone growing vegetables in their garden for their own consumption is counted as employed in countries such as Zimbabwe, but not in SA. Picture: iStock Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie recently claimed South Africa's unemployment is closer to 10% than the official 32.9% if we count the enormous informal sector – which, by some accounts, represents more than 15% of GDP and 2.7 million jobs. Fourie suggested the actual unemployment rate may be closer to 10% based on observations of informal economic activity. With 24 million customers, Capitec has a fair grasp of the transactional activity of nearly half the SA population and estimates the informal sector at nearly nine million – far larger than estimates by Statistics SA. Stats SA hit back at this claim, pointing out that it does in fact measure the informal sector in its various surveys, but added that improvements could be made by gathering better data. It says in a statement that it is 'committed to advancing data integrity and is evaluating additional statistical tools, including a register for informal enterprises'. ALSO READ: Is South Africa's unemployment rate really only 10%? This is no idle debate. Unemployment figures are highly politicised. They are a useful battering ram to shame the government – rightly so – and advance various political agendas. Stats SA says it recognises that its unemployment figures are among the most scrutinised in the country, and that it welcomes this. In South Africa, informal employment, defined by tax registration status and enterprise size, is captured in the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) using International Labour Organisation (ILO) methodology. To qualify as part of the informal sector, employees must be unregistered for income tax and work in establishments with fewer than five individuals. This encompasses employers, own-account workers, and those providing unpaid assistance in household businesses who do not register for income tax or value-added tax (Vat). ALSO READ: Government meets with Capitec CEO about unemployment statistics Same methodology, different results? How we measure unemployment is of vast importance. It makes no sense that Zimbabwe claims an unemployment rate of around 8%, a quarter of that of SA, when it supposedly uses the same ILO methodology used by Stats SA. In other words, you are considered unemployed if you are without work, available to work and have been actively looking for work in the last four weeks. The Zimbabwe informal economy accounts for 70-80% employment according to stats collection agency ZimStat, with millions involved in subsistence farming or small-scale trading. Brazil and India, both fellow Brics countries, measure their unemployment at 6.2% and 7.9%. These seem extraordinarily low in countries with populations of 213 million and 1.46 billion respectively. Both also adhere to ILO methodology, but India defines the informal sector as 'unorganised or unregistered enterprises' employing fewer than 10 workers, or without social security benefits. You are also counted as employed if you worked sporadically over the last year. On this basis, India's low unemployment rate is flattered by its inclusion of a massive informal sector. Brazil, too, includes its huge informal sector in its employment data. You are considered employed if you worked at least one hour for pay or profit in the week in which the survey is conducted – or had a job but were temporarily absent. It separately measures underemployment as workers desiring more hours within the informal sector. On this measure, roughly a quarter of informal workers are underemployed. Clearly, we need to know what is being measured when comparing national employment rates. ALSO READ: Are you employed if you work an hour a week? Stats SA says yes Stats vs bank accounts 'We do not intervene in the labour market,' says Stats SA in a statement in response to Fourie's comments. 'We do not regulate the informal sector. We do not enact economic policy or comment about policy due to the independent nature of our work. 'We measure. And in measuring, we provide the data that allows others – government, business, civil society – to act with insight and intent.' Capitec – the country's largest bank in terms of customers – has unique insights into the transactional nature of much of the population. Many customers appear to be receiving irregular income that seems to signify informal sector activity. 'The problem with this is that they could also have accounts with other banks where salaries are received,' says Solly Molayi, acting deputy director-general of population and social statistics at Stats SA, speaking to Moneyweb. 'Then there's remittances to family members, such as siblings, from those who may be working in other parts of SA or other countries. 'So one has to be careful when talking about the informal sector. This is a term with widely differing meanings in different parts of the world.' For example, someone growing vegetables in their garden for own consumption would be considered part of the informal sector in countries such as Zimbabwe – and therefore counted as employed – but not in SA. ALSO READ: SA youth not unemployed, rather under-employed Youth stats? Evans Maphenduka, executive coordinator for the Development Microfinance Association (DMA), an umbrella body for several microfinance organisations, notes that youth unemployment at 62.4% is especially worrying. Very few of the three million odd informal businesses in SA are owned by the youth. What's needed, he adds, is a dedicated and appropriate microfinance and informal sector policy framework that separates them from small and medium businesses. 'Only then can we, as a country, know how many informal businesses there are, and what their contribution to employment is,' he says. 'Right now, statements made by different people such as those made by Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie cannot be substantiated, and may be regarded by some as speculation and bordering on neglecting our responsibility to create the needed employment in our country.' ALSO READ: How SA's youth make and (should) spend their money Standardised global measurement Measuring employment and the informal sector is an issue that has seized the attention of the ILO, which in 2023 passed a resolution to standardise stats on the informal sector across the world. Not everyone has yet adopted this new definition of informal employment which is 'any activity of persons to produce goods or provide services for pay or profit that is – in law or in practice – not covered by formal arrangements such as commercial laws.' Informal employment would also cover anyone not covered for formal procedures to report economic activities, income taxation, labour legislation and social security laws and regulations. That would cover family members helping out in the business without any formal employment arrangement, as well as employees and 'dependent contractors' not formally recognised by the employer. Molayi says Stats SA is now implementing this definition, the real benefit of which will be to provide more granular detail on the informal sector which is already well measured. As more countries adopt the same measure, cross-country comparisons of unemployment and the informal sector will become more meaningful. This article was republished from Moneyweb. Read the original here.
The Citizen
15-07-2025
- Sport
- The Citizen
Jockey bans stuck in ‘due process'
Some fans are indignant as Lerena heads for the title. Gavin Lerena is galloping towards a national jockey championship but will have the very slow, grinding gears of legal 'due process' to thank if he does clinch the title. After the past weekend, Lerena was nine winners clear of defending champ Richard Fourie with less than three weeks – and 15 race days – to go in the 2024/25 season. The Joburg ace's agent is earning his crust, with his man heavily booked around the country throughout this week, so the odds are with him to land a first crown since 2015. Bookmakers recently closed their books on the race – interestingly at a stage when Fourie was still the favourite. Fourie, who set a new record of 378 winners last season, does not appear much engaged in the contest and isn't travelling as much as he did in 2024 – or as much as Lerena is doing now. Nevertheless, he does have retainers and/or arrangements with prolific trainers Alan Greeff and Justin Snaith and could still trim the lead – especially if his rival suffers a mishap (God forbid, of course). Neither of the riders have imminent suspensions to worry about – unlike third-placed jockey Craig Zackey, who is currently forced to sit on the sidelines. But herein lies the rub. Suspensions Lerena has an effective 47 days of suspensions in abeyance due to appeals he has lodged with the National Horseracing Authority and which have yet to be heard. The most serious of these is an effective 30-day ban for an incident involving himself and colleague Jason Gates at Turffontein on 26 January this year. The racing world was shocked when, during a race, Lerena stood up in his irons and lashed at Gates with his whip. The NHA took until mid-April to convene a hearing on this 'road rage' moment. It found him guilty of various counts and imposed a 90-day suspension with 60 days suspended for two years. He also got a R200,000 fine with half suspended. Lerena issued a public apology for losing his rag but still appealed against the findings and the penalty. That appeal is still to be heard – due to 'due process'. The popular rider has three other appeal cases pending, involving suspensions and cash fines. It's obvious things would have been very different if he'd been forced to serve his bans during the season in which they were incurred. Racing website comment sections are full of indignation. But the law's the law. Most newly crowned champions take a well-earned vacation after the frenetic efforts required to get the job done. It's possible Gav won't have much choice in the matter.
The Citizen
12-07-2025
- Sport
- The Citizen
Follow Gavin Lerena this weekend
Leading jockey looks strong on Saturday and Sunday. Gavin Lerena has climbed above his two closest rivals, Richard Fourie and Craig Zackey, in the 2025 jockey championship log – but it's still a close race. That's good news for punters, who can cash in as the top jockeys pull out all stops in the three weeks that remain of the season. Lerena made the right decision in opting to ride at Turffontein on Thursday, instead of at a postponed Kenilworth meeting, where he had a very promising book of rides, including five outright favourites. In the end, Lerena booted home five winners at the Big T, while Fourie got two at an ultimately rain-curtailed Big K. Zackey drew a blank in Joburg but is probably glorying so much in his Durban July triumph to bother too much. This saw Lerena pulling nine wins clear of both his rivals. Lerena has eight engagements at Turffontein on Saturday – all with excellent winning chances. Also keep an eye on Greyville on Sunday Win, Eachway and All To Come bets on all his mounts is not the worst idea under the circumstances. More discerning players will try to narrow down the Lerena splurge. Molotov Cocktail (R3.75 a Win), which Lerena rides for James Crawford in Race 6, is possibly the standout. Prime Venture (R4.50) for Barend Botes in the eighth is another deserving attention. Echoes of War (R4.20) for Fabian Habib in Race 3 and Saigon Suzie (R6.00) for Johan Janse van Vuuren in Race 6 can be added to the list. Lerena also has a number of promising rides at Greyville on Sunday – and a similar feasting strategy is advised for punters. Fourie will probably be cashing in at Fairview on Monday but, at the moment, Lerena is in the box seat coming around the final bend. Betting on the jockey championship itself has been suspended by most bookmakers following this week's developments. Most of them have had Fourie as a short-priced favourite for the title for many months.
IOL News
09-07-2025
- Sport
- IOL News
Cornal Hendricks remains in the back Boland minds ahead of Currie Cup journey
FILE - Boland coach Hawies Fourie says they are ready for the new season. Image: Boland Rugby The Boland Cavaliers have been through a lot over the last few months following the shock passing of Springboks back Cornal Hendricks right before the business end of the SA Cup. Hendricks died a couple of days before their SA Cup semi-final against the Pumas. Boland played that match with a lot of heart, but just couldn't pick themselves up emotionally to get the job done after such terrible news. But the real job was essentially done a couple of weeks before that when they beat Eastern Province to qualify for the Currie Cup Premier Division for the first time in almost a decade. Despite not playing anymore because of health concerns, Hendricks was still a big part of the team who brought top-flight rugby back to Wellington. It's something his coach Hawies Fourie doesn't take for granted as they take their first steps back into the Currie Cup's top division later this month. 'Cornal is always in the back of our minds. Sometimes at training or in the meetings I still look for his face, and I get that shock that he is not with us anymore,' Fourie told Independent Media. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ Ad loading 'But his legacy will live on. He had a great impact on Boland rugby and someone to look up to and someone who the players can aspire to.' Fourie has been busy over the last seven weeks, as Boland basically has a second pre-season to prepare for the Currie Cup. Their first preseason started almost a year ago as they prepared for the SA Cup. Now there has been a two-month break between the competitions, which means they almost had to start from scratch. 'Luckily this pre-season wasn't as long as it was for the SA Cup. We started preparing for that in August last year. That was seven months, while this one is just six to seven weeks,' Fourie said. 'We have some games in between to get some minutes before the Currie Cup starts. It was a good pre-season, but we struggled a bit with flu, because every now and then we had five or six guys out that couldn't train.' Boland also bolstered their side ahead of the Currie Cup, with centre David Brits, utility back Juan Mostert, hooker Llewellyn Claassen, prop Laurence Victor, rookie wing Renaldo Young, Blitzbok Donovan Don and veteran scrumhalf Louis Schreuder. Schreuder is back where his rugby started, after stints with the Stormers and overseas clubs such as Bath. @bolandrugbyunion Stage is set. Preparations are underway. Dig your heels in, for the return of the Sanlam Boland Cavaliers to the prestigious Carling Black Label Currie Cup Premier Division. ♬ original sound - bolandrugbyunion
IOL News
08-07-2025
- Business
- IOL News
Stats SA and Capitec Bank CEO discuss South Africa's unemployment crisis
A street vendor pushes his trolley in the Pretoria CBD. Stats SA has defended its unemployment statistics after questions were raised about whether the informal economy was taken into consideration. Stats SA has defended the integrity of its official unemployment statistics following a high-level meeting with Capitec Bank CEO Gerrie Fourie, who recently questioned the credibility of the country's 32.9% unemployment rate. The meeting, held in Stellenbosch last week, brought together Minister in the Presidency Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, Statistician-General Risenga Maluleke, senior Stats SA officials, and National Treasury representatives to address comments made by Fourie, who suggested South Africa's real unemployment rate might be closer to 10%, based on Capitec's observations of informal economic activity. In response, Stats SA gave what it described as a 'comprehensive presentation' of the methodology used in its Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), which it said adheres to International Labour Organization (ILO) standards and includes informal and self-employed workers. 'Stats SA methods remain robust,' Maluleke said. 'We do not fix statistics to feel better about our reality. We reflect that reality so the country can make evidence‑based decisions to change it.' Fourie, who welcomed the engagement, said: 'We are committed to working with the government and the private sector to help South Africa grow. The informal market is vibrant and dynamic, but we believe this growth will only be achieved once the informal economy is properly understood and supported with the right policy frameworks, infrastructure, funding, and skills development.' Maluleke acknowledged that Stats SA was open to further improving the quality of labour market data, including exploring the development of a statistical register for small and informal businesses. 'We have listened to them, and we need to investigate the issues of a statistical register for small business,' he said. The meeting followed Minister Ntshavheni's comments during Stats SA's Budget Vote debate in Parliament. She said more consultations were expected with other stakeholders, including in the short-term insurance sector. In a joint commitment, Stats SA and National Treasury affirmed their support for stronger data systems and continued engagement with both public and private stakeholders. 'Future updates will be communicated as developments occur,' the statement read. Stats SA stated it would conduct "methodological tests and innovations" in the coming years to refine labour indicators and ensure better capture of the informal economy within the National Statistics System. THE MERCURY
