Trump-led Texas redistricting gambit ignites national arms race to control Congress
At President Donald Trump's urging, Texas Republicans have proposed new congressional districts aimed at flipping five Democrat-held U.S. House seats in next year's midterm elections, further skewing what is already considered a deeply partisan map in that state.
In response, Democratic governors elsewhere - most notably Gavin Newsom of California, the only state with more congressional districts than Texas - have threatened to retaliate by mounting their own redistricting efforts.
"Donald Trump is a cheater, and so is Governor Greg Abbott," JB Pritzker, the Democratic governor of Illinois, told reporters on Tuesday. Standing alongside him were several of the Democratic lawmakers from Texas who fled their home state on Monday to deny Republicans a quorum and prevent a vote on the proposed new map.
"As far as I'm concerned, everything is on the table," Pritzker said.
Democrats need to flip only three Republican-held seats to retake the majority in the 435-seat House next year, so even modest gains for either party via redistricting could prove decisive. If Democrats win the House, they could stymie much of Trump's legislative agenda and pursue multiple investigations into his administration.
The practice of partisan gerrymandering - manipulating district lines to benefit one party over another - has a long tradition in the United States, but the advent of powerful software and sophisticated voter data has allowed mapmakers to drill down to individual streets and neighborhoods.
Redistricting typically occurs every 10 years to incorporate the U.S. Census count. Trump has broken with that convention by openly pushing Texas Republicans to pursue a rare mid-decade redistricting for partisan gain, even though the existing map, which Republicans drew just four years ago, resulted in the party winning 25 of the state's 38 seats.
"I won Texas. I got the highest vote in the history of Texas, as you probably know, and we are entitled to five more seats," Trump told CNBC on Tuesday, referring to the 2024 presidential election.
Trump has encouraged other Republican states to follow suit. A senior White House official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters last week the administration believes as many as five states could redraw their maps, including Florida, where Governor Ron DeSantis has expressed a willingness to take such a step.
Ohio Republicans will draw a new map ahead of the November 2026 election that could flip at least two Democratic seats. In Missouri, where Democrats hold two of the state's seven seats, some Republican lawmakers have had preliminary conversations about a new map, according to a source familiar with the matter.
Other Republican-controlled states that could in theory use redistricting to target Democrats include Kansas, Kentucky and New Hampshire.
Democrats, meanwhile, face some legal hurdles in their biggest states.
In California, where redistricting is overseen by an independent commission, voters would likely have to approve giving Democratic lawmakers the power to draw a new map.
Newsom said on Monday he would put the issue before voters this autumn if Texas moves forward. Experts say a Democratic-drawn map could easily target five Republican incumbents, even though Democrats already hold 43 of the state's 52 seats.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul said on Monday that she would not "fight with my hand tied behind my back." Even so, any new map in her state would require voters to approve a constitutional amendment, and that process cannot take place before 2026.
In Illinois, where Pritzker and the Democratic-controlled legislature have no restraints, Democrats already hold 14 of the state's 17 U.S. House seats, leaving them without much room to maneuver.
Meanwhile, in Texas, the Republican attorney general, Ken Paxton, said on Tuesday he would seek court orders declaring that any Democratic lawmakers who failed to return by Friday will lose their seats.
Democrats have dismissed that threat as empty. David Froomkin, a law professor at the University of Houston, said he did not believe judges would buy the argument that lawmakers had created vacancies by leaving the state in protest.
"Courts have generally taken the view that a legislator has surrendered their seat when they have chosen to surrender their seat," he said. "Here, they're not intending to vacate their offices – they're exercising their offices by trying to prevent the passage of legislation they find troubling."
Paxton's threat follows warrants issued by the Republican Speaker of the Texas House, Dustin Burrows, for authorities to bring the absent lawmakers back to the statehouse for a vote. Abbott has ordered state law enforcement to help find them.
But the Democrats have all left the state, putting them beyond the reach of any state agency. Trump told reporters late on Tuesday that the FBI 'may have' to get involved in forcing Democrats back to Texas.
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The Independent
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