MBSB Remains Pessimistic On US Despite Latest Job Data
Job openings in the US declined by -274k to 7.4m in Jun-25 (May-25: 7.7M), lower than market expectations of 7.6m, pointing to a cooling labour demand. This marks the first decline in job openings since Mar-25, primarily accommodation and food services (-308K), health care and social assistance (-244K), and finance and insurance (-142K). Conversely, job openings increased in retail trade (+190K), information (+67K), and state and local government education (+61K). Regionally, job openings fell in the Northeast (-106K), the Midwest (-149K), and the South (-130K).
During the same month, hirings rose marginally by +100K to 5.2m (May-25: 5.1m), signalling those businesses remained hesitant to expand their workforce. Meanwhile, layoffs were unchanged from the previous month at 5.1m, providing continued support to the labour market.
The quits rate remained relatively unchanged from the previous month at 3.1m. This steady rate suggests that job-hopping is less prevalent, and workers are less confident in their ability to find better job opportunities. In a separate release, according to The Conference Board (CB) consumer confidence in the US improved by 2.0 points to 97.2 points in Jul-25 (Jun-25: 95.2 points), above market consensus of 95.8 points, signalling stabilisation of consumer confidence since May-25. Similarly, labour market data indicated signs of stability, with a decline in layoffs and number of quits despite a reduction in job openings.
Looking ahead, MBSB Research noted that the implementation of tariffs in Aug-25 are expected to push up prices, dampen growth, and trigger job cuts, potentially affecting the labour market in the coming months. Immigration crackdown could worsen labour shortages in sectors like hospitality and construction, while proposed tax and spending plans create uncertainties, that are stalling hiring decisions. Related
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The Star
7 hours ago
- The Star
Trump's chip tariffs may drive South-East Asia into China's arms, analysts warn
US plans to impose 100 per cent of tariffs on imported chips are a heavy blow to South-East Asia's chip industry and could push the region closer to China, according to observers. US President Donald Trump announced the duties on semiconductors and chips on Wednesday, saying that only companies that were 'building in the United States' were exempt. It is unclear just how much of a US manufacturing presence companies would need to have to qualify for tariff exemptions or reductions, or whether the policy will differentiate between the more advanced AI chips and legacy semiconductors. South-East Asia, led by Singapore and Malaysia, has emerged a key manufacturing hub for legacy semiconductors, integrated circuits that use older technology. Vietnam, which has stepped up investment in semiconductor production and workforce training in recent years, is also emerging as a key player in the global supply chain. With the region already struggling to absorb other tariffs imposed as part of Trump's 'America first' policy, the latest US duties – as well as Washington's policy unpredictability – could open the way for China, analysts said. Antonio Fatas, professor of economics at INSEAD business school, said Trump's tariffs on imported chips showed that the American leader was still testing the limits of economic policies, even though they were damaging global growth and adding to inflation in the United States. 'For South-East Asian countries, this is a confirmation that exporting to the US has become much harder, that the US is not a reliable partner and that you cannot trust it even if you manage to sign a deal,' he said. Fatas said the US had 'clearly become an unreliable partner' and would become more isolated, and that meant that countries – and firms – would try to find opportunities and build trade relations with others. 'Countries like China where saving rates are too high should step in and provide that impetus. If they did, we would see a regionalisation of trade flows as they move away from the US. But before we get there, there will be pain,' he said. Since Trump returned to the White House in January, Beijing has ramped up its charm offensive to South-East Asia, a region that is now a priority for China's neighbourhood diplomacy to offset its own pressure from the US. In April, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia, and in May, Chinese Premier Li Qiang also paid an official visit in Indonesia and Malaysia. Beijing also rolled out red carpet for Singaporean Prime Minister Lawrence Wong in June, when Xi urged Singapore to join China on 'right side of history' and to promote an 'equal multipolar world'. City University of Hong Kong professor Julien Chaisse noted that China's most attractive feature at the moment was its sense of certainty – something Beijing was deliberately projecting to strengthen its long-term appeal to Asean. 'China is quietly positioning itself as the more predictable option. It is not offering perfection, but it is offering clarity ... And that is exactly the kind of language that appeals to Asean leaders who are trying to shield their economies from policy shocks,' Chaisse said, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. And while Southeast Asian countries had been 'cautious by nature' about taking sides between China and the US, there was a limit. 'If one partner keeps disrupting the system while the other offers to support it, the choice starts to become less about politics and more about survival,' he said. However, there is no sign that Asean is about to give up its neutrality, according to Dylan Loh, assistant professor in the Public Policy and Global Affairs Programme at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University. 'US tariff pressure does present an opportunity for China to strengthen its economic ties in the region, insofar as China is positioning itself as a reliable partner through trade agreements and investment. That said, this alone will not portend any major shift or alignment with China – we do not see clear evidence of this,' Loh said. He said countries in the region continue with 'a mix of hedging, balancing, deeper Asean integration, and diversification of their ties [with other countries] while maintaining their relationship with the US and China as best as possible'. Still, countries in the region will have to take the semiconductor tariff pain, at least for now, according to Xu Tianchen, senior China economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit. 'There is no doubt that Southeast Asia will be the first in line to be affected. If Trump expands tariffs to consumer goods such as mobile phones containing foreign chips, the impact will be even greater. This is because Southeast Asia is an important production base for consumer electronics,' Xu said. Like China, South-East Asia's position in the global semiconductor industry is largely cemented by its strength in cost-efficient operations, with very limited access to advanced-node processor chips. The 100 per cent US tariffs would erode its edge for China as a low-tariff launch pad for chip exports to the US. 'China was selling low-end semiconductors elsewhere, but in a way, packing in Southeast Asia, especially in Malaysia. Now, it would not be able to do that with the 100 per cent tariffs,' said Alicia García-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
New Straits Times
12 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Glasner says demotion to Conference League would punish 'innocent' Palace
LONDON: Oliver Glasner believes that if Crystal Palace are demoted to the Conference League it would feel "like we are punished, but being innocent". London club Palace qualified for the Europa League, by winning last season's English FA Cup. But the Eagles fell foul of UEFA rules governing multi-club ownership. European football's governing body determined that as of March 1, American businessman John Textor had control or influence at Palace and French club Lyon. Under UEFA rules Palace are unable to compete in the same European competition and Lyon held on to the Europa League spot by virtue of their higher league position. Palace, however, appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, with club chairman Steve Parish appearing at a hearing yesterday and a verdict expected Monday. As Parish was speaking in Lausanne, Eagles manager Glasner was addressing reporters in London ahead of tomorrow's Community Shield, the traditional curtain-raiser to the English season, between the reigning Premier League champions, Liverpool, and FA Cup-holders, Palace, at Wembley. "If you get punished when you feel innocent it's tough," said Glasner. "And it feels like this. If we play Conference League it feels like we are punished, but being innocent. On the other side, if we had ended the season on position seven and go straight into the Conference League, we all would have celebrated. "So these are the two feelings we have. But again, if you haven't done something wrong and you feel punished, you never feel good. So I think it's all of us, it's the same, and this is how we feel, or how we felt about the UEFA decision." Textor sold his stake in Palace to New York Jets owner Woody Johnson, a deal completed in late July. Glasner is adamant the row over which European competition Palace should play in has not distracted the team ahead of their Wembley showdown with Liverpool. "No, not at all," said the Austrian. "The first meeting we had after, when we met, it was just mentioned once. One slogan for us is 'we want to focus on the things we can influence', and so we can't influence the decision of UEFA, we have no influence on the decision of CAS. "So it just makes no sense, and the players really did very well the whole pre-season and training, worked very hard. We said, OK, on the 11th of August we will get the final verdict, and we will accept it, so it's the only thing we can do."
The Sun
17 hours ago
- The Sun
Glasner calls Palace Conference League demotion unfair punishment
OLIVER GLASNER believes demoting Crystal Palace to the Conference League would unfairly punish an innocent club. The London side earned a Europa League place by winning last season's FA Cup. However, UEFA ruled Palace ineligible due to multi-club ownership involving American investor John Textor. Lyon retained their Europa League spot as they finished higher in their domestic league. Palace appealed to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, with a verdict expected on Monday. Glasner spoke ahead of Sunday's Community Shield clash against Liverpool at Wembley. 'If you get punished when you feel innocent, it's tough,' said the Palace manager. He compared the situation to finishing seventh and celebrating a Conference League spot. Textor sold his Palace stake to New York Jets owner Woody Johnson in late July. Glasner insists the uncertainty hasn't disrupted preparations for the Liverpool match. The Austrian stressed focusing only on factors within the team's control. Players have remained fully committed during pre-season despite the off-field issue. Palace will accept the final decision when it arrives on August 11. - AFP
