Iran-Israel war: UAE overflights stable, Saudi doubles after conflict

Khaleej Times

7 hours ago

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The UAE's air traffic has stayed normal since the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran on June 13, but Saudi air traffic has more than doubled.
'With the closure of Iranian and Iraqi airspace since June 13, flights that normally pass through either of those countries need new routes. As a consequence, overflights of Saudi Arabia have doubled over the past week while the number of flights over Afghanistan has increased by nearly 500 per cent. Overflights — aircraft not departing or landing in a given country — have risen above Saudi Arabia from an average of 700 flights per day in mid-May to 1,400 flights per day since the closure of Iranian and Iraqi airspace on 13 June,' according to Flightradar24.
In a statement to Khaleej Times, the Sweden-based real-time aircraft flight-taking firm said it 'measured no appreciable difference in air traffic to, from, or through the UAE since most recent hostilities began last week".
Many UAE and other Gulf carriers have also re-routed and cancelled their flights to different destinations due to the regional war.
'It should come as no surprise that the two airlines most affected by the closure of airspace in Iran and Iraq are the two largest airlines in the Middle East. A vast majority of Qatar's flights to Europe and North America usually pass over Iraq, while Emirates maintains a more equal distribution between Iraq and Iran. Flydubai's loss of access to Iranian airspace has increased flight times for the airline as it must now route further east through Pakistan and Afghanistan to reach destinations north of Dubai. For example, the airline's flights from Dubai to Moscow increased from about five hours to nearly seven,' said Flightradar24.
It added that there have been changes to how aircraft enter the airspace — an increase in flights transiting via Saudi Arabia — but overall the number of flights has remained consistent.
'For comparison, the number of flights in UAE airspace averaged 2,838 per day, while this week the number is 2,725 flights per day.'
Overflights of Afghanistan have risen from an average of 50 per day in May to 280 per day since June 13.'
Even before the recent closure of Iran and Iraq air space, airlines have had limited options to fly between Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.
'The great circle route (or shortest path on the globe) between Europe and Asia generally routes through either Ukraine or Russia, airspace that is currently unavailable to all airlines. This has squeezed most traffic into limited space over the Black Sea to the north and through Saudia Arabia to the south. Should the conflict between Iran and Israel expand and additional air routes close, the effects on commercial aviation could be profound.'
Rising cost for Gulf carriers
According to Flightradar24, Emirates — the biggest international carrier — operated highest number of weekly flights during May 11-17 at 1,354, followed by Qatar Airways (1,225), flydubai (841), Turkish Airlines (584), Etihad Airways (542), Air Arabia (395), Air India (331), Singapore Airlines (255), British Airways (212), PIA (197), Kuwait Airways (191), Wizz Air Abu Dhabi (156), Lufthansa (145), Gulf Air (137) and Pegasus (105).
Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at London-based StrategicAero Research, at the moment, most European flights are transiting westwards through Saudi and Egyptian airspace rather than the more direct Iraq-Iran airspace, while US-bound flights are tracking more eastwards through Pakistan before heading towards the North Pole before reaching points like Seattle and Los Angeles.
'Flight times are slightly increased but this will depend on a multitude of factors including airplane type, weather, winds, payload, cargo and the number of passengers on board.'
He added that the war could have resulted in higher fuel costs for the airlines as they take longer routes to their destinations amidst closed air space of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Syria and Israel.
'With oil prices rising too, it's not entirely out of the realm that fuel surcharges kick in and we see hike fares — and again, that has the propensity to hit demand,' he said.
While oil prices have broadly stabilised in this first week of war, over the last month, it's already shot up from $60 a barrel to $74 a barrel. 'If the war drags on, it will then hit a $100 a barrel and will definitely hit airfares.'