Oil Traders Brace As US Bombs Iran Nuclear Sites
Arabian Post Staff -Dubai
Oil markets swung sharply following the US Air Force's striking of Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Esfahan nuclear facilities on 21 June, triggering a fresh wave of geopolitical risk. Brent crude futures jumped over 11 per cent earlier this week after Israeli attacks, and traders are now preparing for further price volatility once global trading resumes.
President Trump described the operation as a 'spectacular military success' and warned that more targets await if Iran does not seek peace. The US employed six B‑2 bombers laden with GBU‑57 'bunker‑buster' bombs—ordnance only capable of penetrating Fordow's deep underground vaults. Natanz and Esfahan were also hit, reportedly using Tomahawks from submarines.
ADVERTISEMENT
Market analysts warn that disruption to Iran's 2.5 million barrels per day export capacity, plus the threat of a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, would lift risk premiums sharply. Oxford Economics estimates oil could reach $130 a barrel if Iran decides to close the Strait, sending inflation soaring.
Investors are preparing for turbulence in equities and a rush towards safe-haven assets like the US dollar and gold. Potomac River Capital's CIO, Mark Spindel, warned of markets being 'initially alarmed' with heightened volatility continuing until the extent of the damage is confirmed.
Global markets have seen mixed signals: while crude prices surged up to 18 per cent since Israel's June 13 raids, equities such as the S&P 500 have remained relatively steady. Predicting a deeper sell-off may depend on whether Iran follows through with threats — including disrupting the Strait, leveraging regional proxies, or escalating cyber campaigns.
Iran's official response has been defiant rather than conciliatory. Tehran's Atomic Energy Organisation assures no radiation has been released, and lawmakers claim the damage is superficial and repairable. Iran's foreign ministry has labelled the strikes 'outrageous' and cautioned that the consequences will be 'everlasting'.
Global leaders have voiced alarm. New Zealand's foreign minister urged all parties to 'de-escalate and return to diplomacy', while Australia and Mexico emphasised restraint and dialogue. Venezuela and Cuba condemned the strikes as violations of international law, calling for immediate halt to military action.
Oil market specialist Saul Kavonic warns Brent could move towards $100 a barrel 'depending on Iran's retaliation'. While Saudi output increases may buffer short-term shortages, traders recognise that any direct counterstrike on Gulf tanker routes or infrastructure would compound risk.
The destruction of key nuclear enrichment sites may set back Iran's nuclear programme temporarily. Yet experts caution that the regime's scientific expertise cannot be fully neutralised and the damage might harden Tehran's resolve to pursue a bomb. This may also hinder diplomatic engagement, as Iran could withdraw from the Nuclear Non‑Proliferation Treaty and cease cooperation with the IAEA.
In financial hubs and oil centres from London to Shanghai, traders are reviewing risk models, stress-testing portfolios and hedging energy exposure. Asian markets, heavily reliant on Gulf crude, could face inflationary pressure if shipping routes are disrupted.
A key question now is whether the United States and its allies will pursue further strikes or shift to diplomatic pressure. Trump's administration insists that Iran now has a binary choice: embrace peace or face further 'precision' strikes. Critics warn that without congressional authorisation, deeper military involvement risks entangling the US in a long-term Middle East conflict.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Middle East Eye
an hour ago
- Middle East Eye
Israel reinstates full closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque
Israeli forces on Sunday morning reinstated the full closure of Al-Aqsa Mosque in occupied East Jerusalem, barring worshippers from entry except for mosque guards and Islamic Waqf staff. The closure followed an overnight raid by Israeli police, during which they stormed prayer halls, vandalised sacred spaces, and removed worshippers by force. They also arrested four mosque guards while other were interrogated on-site. The Islamic Waqf condemned the violations, warning that repeated Israeli attempts to assert security control over the mosque aim to alter the religious and political status quo. The incident comes after nine days of restricted access to the mosque amid the Israeli war on Iran. On 13 June, Israeli forces completely shut down Al-Aqsa Mosque, citing the ongoing war with Iran (Ahmad GHARABLI/AFP)
The National
2 hours ago
- The National
UAE's nuclear authority says US strikes on Iran had 'no impact' on the Emirates
The UAE on Sunday moved to reassure the public that US strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran had 'no impact' on the Emirates. The Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation (FANR) said relevant national authorities are closely monitoring developments related to nuclear facilities in Iran. The US military bombed three nuclear sites in Iran, President Donald Trump said on Saturday night, calling the attacks a 'spectacular military success'. 'Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated,' he said. FANR said that "there are no impacts on the UAE resulting from these developments", in a statement shared by state news agency Wam. "FANR confirmed that it is well-informed and continuously following up on the situation, in coordination with international partners, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and receives regular updates through official channels," the statement said. "FANR stated that, based on ongoing monitoring of the situation, it confirms that there are no impacts on the UAE resulting from these developments. "It also urges the public to rely on official sources for information and to avoid spreading rumours and unverified news." The IAEA said on Sunday that there had been no increase in off-site radiation levels following the attacks on the Iranian nuclear sites. IAEA director general, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said he will call for an emergency meeting of the agency's board of directors in light of the 'urgent situation' in Iran. 'In view of the increasingly serious situation in terms of nuclear safety and security, the Board of Governors will meet in an extraordinary session tomorrow, which I will address,' Mr Grossi said. 'As of this time, we don't expect that there will be any health consequences for people or the environment outside the targeted sites,' he said. 'We will continue to monitor and assess the situation in Iran and provide further updates as additional information becomes available.'
Gulf Today
3 hours ago
- Gulf Today
Pakistan formally recommends US President Trump for Nobel Peace Prize
The Pakistani government has decided to formally recommend US President Donald Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of his decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership' during the recent India-Pakistan crisis. In a post shared on X on Friday night, the government said the international community bore witness to unprovoked and unlawful Indian aggression, which constituted a grave violation of Pakistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity, resulting in the tragic loss of innocent lives, including women, children, and the elderly. In May, a surprise announcement by Trump of a ceasefire brought an abrupt end to a four-day conflict between India and Pakistan. Trump has since repeatedly said that he averted a nuclear war, saved millions of lives, and grumbled that he got no credit for it. Pakistan agrees that US diplomatic intervention ended the fighting, but India says it was a bilateral agreement between the two militaries. "President Trump demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi, which de-escalated a rapidly deteriorating situation," Pakistan said. "This intervention stands as a testament to his role as a genuine peacemaker." Governments can nominate people for the Nobel Peace Prize. There was no immediate response from Washington. A spokesperson for the Indian government did not respond to a request for comment. Trump has repeatedly said that he's willing to mediate between India and Pakistan over Kashmir region, their main source of enmity. Islamabad, which has long called for international attention to Kashmir, is delighted. In a social media post on Friday, Trump gave a long list of conflicts he said he had resolved, including India and Pakistan and the Abraham accords in his first term between Israel and some Muslim-majority countries. He added: "I won't get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what I do." Pakistan's move to nominate Trump came in the same week its army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, met the US leader for lunch. It was the first time that a Pakistani military leader had been invited to the White House when a civilian government was in place in Islamabad. Following the Indian aggression, Pakistan "launched Operation Bunyan-um Marsoos — a measured, resolute, and precise military response, the post read and noted that the response was executed to exercise the country's "fundamental right to self-defence' and "carefully to re-establish deterrence,' defending its "territorial integrity while consciously avoiding civilian harm.' The post further said that "at a moment of heightened regional turbulence,' President Trump "demonstrated great strategic foresight and stellar statesmanship through robust diplomatic engagement with both Islamabad and New Delhi.' It continued that the US president de-escalated a rapidly deteriorating situation, ultimately securing a ceasefire and averting a broader conflict between the two nuclear states that would have had catastrophic consequences for millions of people in the region and beyond. The post said that this intervention stands as a testament to Trump's role as a genuine peacemaker and his commitment to conflict resolution through dialogue. The government also acknowledged President Trump's "sincere offers to help resolve the longstanding dispute of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan - an issue that lies at the heart of regional instability. "Durable peace in South Asia would remain elusive until the implementation of United Nations Security Council resolutions concerning Jammu and Kashmir,' it said. The government noted that President Trump's leadership during the 2025 Pakistan-India crisis "manifestly showcases the continuation of his legacy of pragmatic diplomacy and effective peace-building.' The post said that Pakistan remains hopeful that Trump's "earnest efforts' will continue to contribute towards regional and global stability, particularly in the context of ongoing crises in the Middle East, including the humanitarian tragedy unfolding in Gaza and the deteriorating escalation involving Iran.
