Analysts Cut Guidance Across Sectors Amid Tariff Shock – But Nvidia (NVDA) May Be the Exception
Confident Investing Starts Here:
Across the U.S., Europe, and China, companies are slashing their 2025 forecasts or pulling them altogether. The reason is soaring costs, shaky consumer sentiment, and trade disruptions linked to President Trump's latest round of tariffs. Many executives are now more focused on preparing for multiple economic scenarios than celebrating last quarter's wins.
Cautioned Guidance Despite Solid Results
Despite this, the S&P 500 delivered double the expected earnings growth, and Europe's Stoxx 600 beat forecasts with a 5% earnings increase. However, guidance momentum – a measure of how many companies are raising vs. lowering forecasts – has dropped to its lowest point since 2010. That's a big warning sign for markets.
Mentions of 'tariffs' during earnings calls surged to a record high this season. Companies like Walmart (WMT) and Deere & Co. (DE) flagged rising costs, with DE estimating a $500 million hit in 2025. Expedia (EXPE) warned of softer U.S. travel demand, while Alibaba (BABA) reported disappointing revenue. Even Mercedes-Benz and Daimler Truck (DTG) cut their guidance due to weak North American orders and pricier parts.
Some, like United Airlines (UAL), issued dual profit forecasts depending on whether we get a recession. Others, like Delta (DAL) and American Airlines (AAL), pulled their full-year outlooks completely.
And yet, not all is doom and gloom. The bright spot this season was tech, especially the AI heavyweights. So far, six of the 'Magnificent Seven' have reported, and four delivered revenue guidance in line with or above expectations. Alphabet (GOOGL) kept quiet, but investors are watching closely as Nvidia (NVDA) prepares to report on May 28.
In Uncertain Times, Data-Driven Investors Stay Ahead
So, what does this mean for investors? Volatility is back, and forward guidance is now more influential than raw earnings. But in uncertain times, data-driven decisions matter more than ever. If you're looking for stocks analysts still believe in, check out TipRanks' Smart Score and Top Analyst Picks to stay one step ahead.
Using Tipranks' Comparison Tool, we've collected all the publicly traded companies mentioned in the article, despite representing different sectors. This way, you can examine each stock and industry to form your own perspective.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
4 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Walmart's earnings report will test investor confidence in US market
By Siddharth Cavale NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors expect Walmart's management to strike a cautious tone on customer demand as the U.S. labor market cools and inflation ticks up, though the company has outperformed its peers over the last year due to its reliance on grocery sales and wealthier customers shopping there more often. Still, analysts say this environment is a sweet spot for Walmart, which reports second-quarter results on Thursday before markets open. Its low-price model and dominance in grocery can help it weather economic storms better than others. The world's largest retailer by sales has surpassed earnings estimates for 11 consecutive quarters, according to LSEG data, sending its valuation soaring even as other consumer staples companies have struggled this year. The Arkansas-based chain's stock has gained nearly 37% in the last 12 months, one of the notable non-tech companies leading a market that has largely sloughed off the effects of U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing trade war. The broader Consumer Staples sector is up 4.5%, trailing the broad-market S&P 500. The company's May-to-July results are the most closely watched event among this week's retail earnings, following Tuesday's results from Home Depot and Wednesday's reports from Lowe's and Target. Its significance goes beyond retail; as one of the largest and most recognizable companies in the U.S., Walmart is viewed as a barometer for the state of the U.S. consumer. "Walmart essentially is middle America, so I'll be looking for cues from Walmart as to the health of the broader economy," said Charles Sizemore, a Walmart investor. U.S. shoppers remain resilient despite declining sentiment, but they are being increasingly selective about purchases and have shown signs of trading down. RBC Capital Markets analyst Steven Shemesh cautioned that Walmart may adopt a more cautious tone heading into the second half. "The million-dollar question at this point is how customers respond to higher prices. We have seen some higher prices to date, and the consumer has managed through them OK, and we haven't seen a material impact to volume. But I don't think they're very widespread price increases at this point where the consumer has really noticed," Shemesh said. Home Depot missed estimates for quarterly revenue and profit, but kept its annual forecasts intact on Tuesday. Walmart's forward price-to-earnings ratio currently stands at 35.7, compared with an average of 25.5 over the past five years, suggesting investors expect growth. Its market value has soared to about $800 billion, per LSEG Datastream. Investors and analysts expect the retailer to report earnings of 74 cents a share, up nearly 11% from a year ago, and revenue of $176.16 billion, up 4%. Sales fell slightly short of expectations in Walmart's last quarter, but July's retail sales report bolstered analysts' confidence in current spending trends. "July's data showing retail sales grew faster than inflation tells me that the consumer is still spending and unit counts are up," said D.A. Davidson analyst Michael Baker. Reuters' global tariff tracker shows at least 92 out of nearly 300 companies have announced price hikes in response to the trade war, with about one-third from the consumer sectors. That includes Tide detergent and Bounty paper towels maker Procter & Gamble, a top Walmart supplier. "Third quarter is the make-or-break quarter, really, where the higher prices ... are going to be passed along in a more broader way than what we are seeing now," Shemesh said. 擷取數據時發生錯誤 登入存取你的投資組合 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤 擷取數據時發生錯誤
Fast Company
5 minutes ago
- Fast Company
Black beauty businesses are stuggling under Trump's tariffs
Earlier this summer, Dajiah Blackshear-Calloway, 34, started to notice that her regular clients weren't visiting her hair salon as often as they used to. The salon, in Smyrna, Georgia, houses two stylists and offers dozens of services that range from $50 natural hairstyles to $745 tape-in weave extensions. Her most popular services are $254 sew-ins, where human hair extensions are woven into braids, and $125 quick weaves, where human or synthetic hair is styled and then glued to a stocking cap. But the prices of hair extensions and hair glues used to create wigs and weaves have gone up exponentially after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a series of different tariffs on China and Vietnam, where the majority of Black beauty products are made. The price of a package of hair imported from Vietnam has gone up to $290 from $190 since May. A bottle of hair glue, imported from China, has gone up from $8 a bottle to $14.99 at her local beauty supply store. 'We're being impacted at every level,' Blackshear-Calloway said. 'I'm either having to eat that cost or pass that expense along to my clients, which affects their budgets and their pockets as well.' To avoid passing on rising costs, Blackshear-Calloway is asking her clients to bring their own hair to their appointments. Now her salon is offering a quick weave service without hair for $140, but with hair the price is $400, according to her booking website. She's also struggling to get products since her wholesaler is delaying shipments as tariff rates fluctuate. Kadidja Dosso, 30, owner of Dosso Beauty, which sells hypoallergenic braiding hair, as well as The Dosso Hair Salon in Philadelphia, has also faced delayed shipments on imports from China. She waited over a month to get $50,000 worth of China-made braiding hair via air freight at John F. Kennedy Airport in June, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced 145% tariffs on the country over confusion over what tariff should apply. 'We have to provide more specifics of the products – exact materials, the product use – for it to clear customs,' Dosso said. 'Part of the issue was that the same language that we've been using for years wasn't descriptive enough.' She wants to avoid raising prices on her $13 packets of hair, which customers typically buy at least five at a time to complete one hairstyle. Higher costs Tariffs are disproportionately impacting Black business owners like Blackshear-Calloway and Dosso, said Andre Perry, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. 'Many Black entrepreneurs started off with less wealth,' Perry said. He said that the wealth gap puts Black entrepreneurs, especially those in low-margin businesses like consumer goods or hair care services, into precarious financial positions as tariffs eat into their bottom lines. Sina Golara, an assistant professor of supply chain and operations management at Georgia State University, said rising costs due to tariffs are 'like a tax that you're imposing on business.' 'In some cases, it could be borne by the foreign manufacturer, but in most cases, it will also have quite a substantial impact on the domestic buyers and consumers,' Golara said. Diann Valentine, 55, founder of Slayyy Hair, first felt the impact of tariffs shortly after the initial 145% tariff was imposed on China and she faced a $300,000 bill to get 26,000 units of braiding hair out of the Los Angeles port in May. 'To lose that kind of money at this stage has been devastating,' Valentine said. Since then she has raised the price of her braiding hair and drawstring ponytail extensions by 20%. She also laid off four employees and is working 16-hour days to compensate in her two Glow+Flow beauty supply stores in Inglewood and Hawthorne, California. Slayyy Hair supplies $8.49 nontoxic braiding hair and $35.99 synthetic drawstring ponytails to TJ Maxx and Marshalls, which have resisted renegotiating prices or delivery deadlines to compensate. 'So essentially, we paid more for our ponytails than TJ Maxx and Marshalls paid for them,' Valentine said. She is also trying to renegotiate price increases with Target, where she sells in at least 70 stores in California, Nevada and Colorado, she said. TJ Maxx and Marshalls declined a Reuters request for comment. Fifty percent of the merchandise comes from China, Valentine said, and prices for synthetic wigs, human-hair weaves, plastic hair rollers, rubber bands, combs and brushes that stock her shelves are trending up at her beauty supply locations. 'I thought maybe we would see an increase in foot traffic because there would be more DIY hairstyles – more women doing their hair at home,' she said. 'But for right now, we've only seen decreased foot traffic and also a decrease in frequency of visits from our existing customers.' Struggling salons While beauty product sales are typically resilient during economic downturns, beauty services are seen as discretionary, said Marley Brocker, senior analyst at market research firm IBISWorld. 'Tariffs on those imports are going to directly lead to higher costs for those service providers, whether they're buying directly from overseas manufacturers or buying from wholesalers within the U.S.,' she said. Black U.S. consumers spent approximately $2.29 billion on hair care products in 2022, according to a NielsenIQ study from that year. But higher prices are causing some Black women to visit the salon less frequently. Deiara Frye, 27, of Raleigh, North Carolina, usually schedules hair appointments at least five times a year, but so far this year she's only gone once. 'Due to the cost of everything rising over the years, I tend to get braids a little more often now than sew-ins, or try to maintain my natural hair,' she said. She's also seeing prices for her natural hair products like Unilever's Shea Moisture and Procter & Gamble's Pantene go up. Fewer visits are impacting salons and beauty supply stores. Until earlier this year, Dionne Maxwell was selling wigs, braiding hair, shampoos, and conditioners out of her mini beauty supply store in Dallas, Georgia, located 33 miles outside of Atlanta, but she shut it down after she started losing foot traffic in May and moved operations into her home. Now she's relying on orders placed through Uber Eats, TikTok Shop and to sustain her business, but even those sales have slowed significantly, she said. 'We don't have the money for advertising, because enough revenue is not coming in to advertise with,' Maxwell said. Tariffs have raised Maxwell's wholesale price for China-made braiding hair by 50 cents per pack, she said, and she is now required to buy more hair in her wholesale orders. She said she's struggled to negotiate better prices with her hair wholesalers, who are requiring her to order more units of merchandise at higher costs. Her wholesaler is asking her to purchase 110 packs of hair per order, when she was previously able to buy 30 packs at a time, she said. 'For the past two months, we have been basically paying our bills out of pocket because we really have had nothing coming in,' Maxwell said.
CNBC
7 minutes ago
- CNBC
Trump expands 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to include 407 additional product types
The Trump administration has quietly expanded its 50% steel and aluminum tariffs to include more than 400 additional product categories, vastly increasing the reach and impact of this arm of its trade agenda. The new tariffs, which took effect Monday, expand the scope of the levies that President Donald Trump previously announced on the valuable commodities. The tariff list now covers products like fire extinguishers, machinery, construction materials and specialty chemicals that either contain, or are contained in, aluminum or steel. "Auto parts, chemicals, plastics, furniture components—basically, if it's shiny, metallic, or remotely related to steel or aluminum, it's probably on the list," Brian Baldwin, vice president of customs at Kuehne + Nagel International AG wrote on LinkedIn of the expanded list. "This isn't just another tariff—it's a strategic shift in how steel and aluminum derivatives are regulated," he continued. The levies extend to 407 new product categories, the Department of Commerce said Tuesday. "Today's action expands the reach of the steel and aluminum tariffs and shuts down avenues for circumvention – supporting the continued revitalization of the American steel and aluminum industries," Under Secretary of Commerce for Industry and Security Jeffrey Kessler said in a statement. The release from the agency links out to a list that identifies the newly included product types only by the specific customs codes that apply to them, not by what the products are actually called. For example, Commerce identifies the product category of fire extinguishers only as "8424.10.0000," a 10-digit code buried among hundreds of other 10-digit codes. This format makes it very difficult for the public to get a full picture of all the products that are impacted by Monday's expanded tariffs. But experts say the impact will be enormous. "By my count, the steel and aluminum tariffs now affect at least $320 billion of imports based on 2024's general customs value of imports," Jason Miller, a professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University, wrote on LinkedIn. "This will add more inflationary cost-push pressures to already climbing prices that domestic producers are charging as picked up by July's PPI data," he continued. President Donald Trump has repeatedly relied on sector-specific tariffs to enact his sweeping trade agenda. In June, Trump announced that he was doubling tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% for most countries, injecting widespread uncertainty among businesses and U.S. trading partners reliant on the valuable commodities. The White House did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment on whether the new metal tariffs stack on top of the country-specific tariffs that Trump has also announced.
