July 29 could be the game changer – stay tuned for trend reversal, says Harshubh Shah
Indian equity market
continued to face headwinds, ending in the red for the fourth consecutive week. The benchmark
Nifty50 index
slipped 0.5% during the week ended July 25, 2025, weighed down by sustained
foreign portfolio investor
(FPI) selling and rising caution among market participants.
FPI Selling Intensifies
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July has proven to be a turbulent month for the markets, with
FPIs
turning persistent
net sellers
. In 14 out of the 19 trading sessions this month, they offloaded equities, leading to a net outflow of Rs 20,262 crore (as of July 25).
This selling pressure has been a key overhang, curbing any meaningful upside despite supportive global cues.
Time-Based Reversal Validated Once Again
In the previous weekly outlook, we had highlighted the period of July 24–25 as a potential reversal zone for positional traders. True to the forecast, the Nifty reversed sharply from the 25,246 level on July 24, ending the week at 24,806 — reaffirming the effectiveness of our time-based approach.
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Even for intraday traders, the July 22–23 window proved highly rewarding, as predicted momentum played out with clean, directional moves. Here's a breakdown of how our intraday time levels aligned with real market action:
Intraday Timing Highlights (July 21–25):
July 21 (Monday):
Swing high at 11:00 AM (vs projected 10:30 AM)
Swing low at 1:45 PM (vs 1:30 PM)
July 22 (Tuesday):
Day high at 9:15 AM (vs 9:20 AM)
Day low at 12:00 PM (vs 12:20 PM)
Swing high at 1:00 PM (vs 1:05 PM)
July 23 (Wednesday):
Day low at 9:40 AM (vs 9:20 AM)
Momentum picked up at 11:20 AM as expected
July 24 (Thursday):
Selling intensified at 10:20 AM, low made at 12:15 PM (close to 12:30 PM)
July 25 (Friday):
High at 9:25 AM
Swing low at 12:10 PM matched our timing
These consistent alignments with projected time slots highlight how "Time drives price" remains a powerful concept in market navigation.
Outlook for July 28–August 1
As we head into the final week of July and the beginning of August, July 29 stands out as a key date that could potentially mark a trend reversal — either a short-term top or bottom. Positional traders should keep this date on close watch.
Support Zones:
24,850 / 24,805 / 24,676 / 24,538 / 24,450 / 24,355
Resistance Zones:
24,855 / 24,980 / 25,080 / 25,147 / 25,320 / 25,434
Important Intraday Time Slots (July 28–August 1):
Monday, July 28: 10:20 AM, 11:10 AM, 12:50 PM, 2:15 PM
Tuesday, July 29: 9:15 AM, 10:20 AM, 12:50 PM, 1:35 PM, 2:35 PM
Wednesday, July 30: 9:30 AM, 11:35 AM, 12:50 PM, 2:40 PM
Thursday, July 31: 12:40 PM, 2:40 PM
Friday, August 1: 11:25 AM, 1:35 PM, 2:20 PM
With precision timing once again playing a critical role in both intraday and positional strategies, traders and investors would do well to respect these windows.
Key Takeaway
The Nifty remains in a tight zone of uncertainty amid relentless FPI outflows and technical weakness. However, July 29 could act as an inflection point, potentially offering a clear directional cue. As always, timing remains crucial — and time-based analytics could continue to offer the edge needed to outperform.
(The author is Director, Wealthview Analytics Pvt Ltd)
SEBI Registration – INH000009676
(
Disclaimer
: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
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