Kilcoy race-by-race preview and tips for Sunday

News.com.au

a day ago

Queensland form man Graeme Carey has provided his race-by-race preview and tips for Sunday's meeting at Kilcoy.
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BEST BET:
GOODES (Race 3 No 5)
NEXT BEST:
IN GREAT SPIRIT (Race 6 No 4)
VALUE BET:
CONSTANT CAFE (Race 7 No 8)
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Quaddie numbers are:
Race 6 – 3,4,7
Race 7 – 7,8
Race 8 – 1,3,4
Race 9 – 1,5,7
$54 = 100 per cent of the dividend
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Race 1 – 3YO Benchmark 60 Handicap (1200m)
He has been weighted accordingly but GIN A TONIC (1) is a Saturday grader taking on provincial company and was too good for a strong Class 2 field at Ipswich last start. He makes his own luck, the 1.5kg claim for Amy Graham helps and he can control the race.
OH NOT REALLY (3) hasn't put in a bad run in his short career and overcame a wide gate to get the money when resuming at the Sunshine Coast. He steps up in journey but the better gate and Corey Sutherland's 2kg claim have him right in the frame.
JACKA STANDS ALONE (2) has a similar record to Oh Not Really and came from a wide alley to win at Gatton last start. Better drawn here, with Kayla Johnston's 3kg claim he can skip around this tight circuit and give them something to chase.
THE LOUVRE (5) was never in it from a wide gate at Gatton, but the ace here can be gold and 2kg claimer Jade Metcalfe won't die wondering.
Verdict – GIN A TONIC (1) has the class edge.
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Race 2 – Maiden Plate (800m)
MHASAHN (5) wasn't disgraced when resuming from a wide gate at Gatton and is drawn far better here. Brandon Lerena replaces the apprentice Kelsy Lenton, and it will be handlebars down from the outset.
CHEEK TO CHEEK (9) has had two trials since a chance of stables and his placing on debut at Ipswich over this trip had merit. With Jackson Morris he can overcome the gate.
LOOK IT'S LUCY (4) has been trying for a while and had support but found one better at Gatton when resuming. This is her trip, and she will be prominent for a long way.
AWESOME TESS (8) is fitter for two outings and led them up from a wide gate at Toowoomba last start. Better drawn here she can give a sight.
Verdict – MHASAHN (5) on top in a hard race.
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Race 3 – Benchmark 60 Handicap (800m)
The one with upside is GOODES (5) which was dominant at Gatton last start in a Class 1. He has had a few homes in his career but now with Emma Fouchard these shortcourse sprints look his go. With Adin Thompson from a good gate, he can get it done.
DAWYN'S CHOICE (6) led them up before fading when resuming at Ipswich. An 800m specialist she strip fitter here, drops in grade and from a good gate will get all the favours with Cobi Vitler.
KING OF THE JUNGLE (3) has speed and will find this easier than a Toowoomba Class 3. Fitter for that outing 2kg claimer Corey Sutherland can take advantage of the inside draw.
MISHANI STORM (13) has been seen in better races than this and has benefited from a first-up outing at Gatton. A good gate helps and with Tom Orr's 2kg claim she can show what she's got.
Verdict – GOODES (5) has more to offer.
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Race 4 – Benchmark 58 Handicap (1900m)
PAPAL MISS (3) mowed them down on the Gold Coast Poltrack last start and it was at this track she got her Maiden out of the way at start number 28. She has won four times since and while wins are spaced back-to-back is not impossible.
DANCE BABE (11) had a change of stables and led them up before being found out by Papal Miss and company last start at the Gold Coast. Her only win was here, blinkers come off and a bold ride will make her hard to pass.
TAVIESLASS (5) doesn't win out of turn but led them up in a stronger race than this at Toowoomba last start. Billi-Rose Andrew stays on and will be near the speed throughout.
SHAPE OF WATER (7) steps up in trip but has less convictions than any of these. He is backing up quickly after the gate cost him dearly at Beaudesert and a positive ride from 2kg claimer Colleen Krahnen will make a difference.
Verdict – PAPAL MISS (3) to round them up.
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Race 5 – 0-58 Handicap (1500m)
GRAND CRUSADER (2)'s recent form is on the Gold Coast polytrack but he led them up and was only narrowly beaten at his only previous start here. With Jackson Morris from gate one he can dictate the tempo to suit and be hard to pass.
TARADALE (3) has less convictions than most and wasn't beaten far when coming from a wide gate at Ipswich last start. His recent outings have been against better horses than this and he will get every chance with Adin Thompson.
BAUHAUS (13) struggled on the polytrack last start but wasn't beaten far at Gatton two starts back and that is good enough for this,
SUPRENDRE (12) chased Grand Crusader home on the Gold Coast poly last start. She is hard to follow but a replication of that effort has her in the money.
Verdict – GRAND CRUSADER (2) hard to pass.
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Race 6 – 2&3YO Fillies Maiden Plate (1200m)
Chris Anderson has brought IN GREAT SPIRIT (4) here after a solid first-up effort at Ipswich. She wasn't beaten far by Saturday winners at her two previous outings, trials soundly and will get every chance with Micheal Hellyer from the ace draw.
GREYT PERFORMER (3) only battled from a wide gate at Ipswich when resuming but will find this journey more to her liking. Like Tarrant replaces Rikki Jamieson and will be in the finish
SHAMROCK'S SECRET (7) is fitter for two outings, has experience here and gets to the right trip. With Dan McGillivray she will get every chance.
BELLA SPIRITO (2) was well beaten on the poly at debut is better suited here and will get every chance with Justin Stanley.
Verdict – IN GREAT SPIRIT (4) is ready to win.
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Race 7 – Benchmark 65 Handicap (1200m)
Kilcoy is a specialist's track and CONSTANT CAFE (8) was unsighted at Ipswich when resuming, she is three from three here and improves second-up. A good gate helps, and Adin Thompson will have her in the box seat throughout.
HALF CROWN (7) ran on stoutly to be beaten only a length at the Sunshine Coast when resuming. How he will handle this tight track is anybody's guess but he does have a win at Warwick and three of his four wins have been second-up. With Brandon Lerena he will be swooping late.
The stablemate UMETINI (9) may want longer but has a good first-up record and looked solid at a recent trial. The tight track tests but 3kg claimer Kayla Johnston is learning her craft on these bush circuits.
MISHANI GANGSTER (4) is backing up after doing everything but win at Beaudesert on Monday. A wide gate tests but 2kg claimer Tom Orr will take no prisoners.
Verdict – CONSTANT CAFE (8) is a track and distance specialist.
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Race 8 – 0-55 Handicap (1200m)
The upside is with NIRVANA THE STORM (3) which got the maiden out of the way at Beaudesert on Monday. He has been racing consistently, placed here two starts back and will get a good run with Brandon Lerena.
Blinkers and a tongue-tie go on STOP THE TAPE (4), a Maiden which has been backed at both outings on the back of strong trials. He takes on seasoned winners here, but this field could fall away and where there's smoke there's fire.
MAJESTICS REQUEST (1) hasn't won for a long time and was unsighted from a wide gate at Ipswich last outing. He made ground here two starts back over this trip and now having his third outing since a change of stables gets a strong rider in Paul Hamblin. If anything is there, he will find it.
BEE EXACT (6) can't draw a gate for love nor money but has been racing consistently and Olivia Kendal stays on. With some luck with scratchings to improve the gate he can be in the finish.
Verdict – NIRVANA THE STORM (3) to back-up.
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Race 9 – 0-55 Handicap (1200m)
BOOMI'S BUDDY (1) didn't fire at Gatton last outing but has won twice here previously and was only run down late here two starts back when resuming. Corey Sutherland gets back on and from the ace draw can control the race.
QICKWIT (5) has found some form and after working from a wide gate was only found out late at Gatton. He will find this easier and with Colleen Krahnen's 2kg claim will be prominent for a long way.
CHEMIOSMOSIS (7) finds it hard to win but has speed and from a good gate will get every chance with Georgina Cartwright.
PABALLO (3) brings country form but has won here previously and gets a 4kg claim for Amie Meissner. He has speed, is well drawn and can make his presence felt.