CNBC report says Singdollar may reach safe-haven status, like Swiss franc, yen, and US dollar
The Singdollar may end up as 'the next safe haven on a par with the Swiss franc,' the report says, noting that though the US dollar is still the top reserve currency around the globe, the dollar index has decreased by more than 9 per cent this year. Meanwhile, trade concerns cast a shadow over the Japanese yen's outlook.
The CNBC report quoted an FX strategist at OCBC, Christopher Wong, as noting that the Singdollar is not considered in the same way as the US dollar, the yen, and the Swiss franc. It 'tends to exhibit defensive characteristics during episodes of financial stress — especially those centred in Asia.'
Mr Wong pointed out that Singapore's currency already works as a 'quasi safe-haven' in the region and for emerging markets.
The Singapore dollar has gained strength against the US dollar this year, rising around 6 per cent so far. In May, an article in CNA said that the two currencies, then at $1 to S$1.29, could reach parity .
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief economist at Bank of Singapore, said at the time that parity between the two currencies could be achieved 'in our lifetimes' and cited the example of the Swiss franc, which did so in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008.
On July 11, Jefferies Financial said the same. Its group strategist, Christopher Wood, noted that since March 22, when the US Federal Reserve started increasing interest rates, the Singdollar 'has appreciated against almost all major currencies, confirming its status as the 'Swiss franc of Asia.''
'Wood stated that Singapore's bond yields remain attractive to conservative funds focused on wealth preservation. From a five-year perspective, it is reasonable to expect the exchange rates of the Singapore dollar to reach parity with the US dollar, implying an appreciation of 28 per cent,' Jefferies added.
What has contributed to the strength of the Singdollar is the city-state's economics, institutions, and policies regarding fiscal prudence, which are routinely described as solid. Moreover, Singapore has political stability and a deep well of reserves.
CNBC quotes VP Bank chief investment officer Felix Brill as saying that Singapore's monetary policy framework has given 'exceptional stability' to the currency, 'which is exactly what safe haven flows seek.'
Obstacles to the Singdollar reaching safe haven status, however, remain. The first is the size of the market for the Singapore dollar, compared to the US dollar, the yen, and the Swiss franc. The second is the fact that the city-state's economy is heavily reliant on exports. /TISG
Read also: SAFE HAVEN: So much cash has been deposited in Singapore that DBS lent MAS $30 billion
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