
Analysis: How the oil price plunge complicates Saudi Arabia's economic agenda
DUBAI: Saudi Arabia, with its wealth linked inextricably to oil revenue, faces mounting pressure to raise debt or cut spending after a plunge in crude prices, complicating plans to fund an ambitious agenda to diversify its economy.
Oil prices have tumbled to near four-year lows on fears a trade war will hit global growth and after a surprise decision by some OPEC+ oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, to boost their output plans.
The price decline threatens to erase tens of billions of dollars of Saudi revenue, along with a planned drop in dividends from state-controlled energy giant Saudi Aramco.
The International Monetary Fund and economists estimate Riyadh needs oil prices of over $90 a barrel to balance its budget. Benchmark Brent prices slipped below $65 this week.
VISION 2030
While Saudi Arabia funds its Vision 2030 reform program off budget, the government needs to spend on mammoth infrastructure projects linked to the program, which aims to wean the economy off its self-declared "oil addiction."
The $925 billion Public Investment Fund, which is steering Vision 2030, also partly relies on oil, including through its shares in Aramco.
"Saudi Arabia is likely to rely on debt financing, and it will have to delay or scale back some planned contracting awards given 2024 was already in a twin deficit," said Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, referring to fiscal and current account deficits.
Before the U.S. tariffs announcement, she said analysts had expected Saudi public debt to surge by $100 billion in the next three years. It jumped 16% to over $324 billion in 2024, official figures show.
Aramco's dividends are also expected to fall by a third this year, meaning the government and PIF will receive about $32 billion and $6 billion less, respectively, Reuters calculations show.
Oil generated 62% of government revenue last year. Riyadh has not forecast oil revenue this year but in its 2025 budget released in November, it projected a 3.7% fall in total revenue.
RECALIBRATING
PIF is also likely to seek additional financing, analysts said. The fund's Governor Yasir Al-Rumayyan said last year it intends to boost annual investments to $70 billion between 2025 and 2030 from $40-50 billion.
PIF declined to comment.
Saudi Arabia was among the largest emerging market debt issuers last year and the government has already raised $14.4 billion in bonds this year.
PIF, which borrowed $24.8 billion last year via bonds and loans, has already raised $11 billion in 2025. Several other state-linked entities have also raised billions.
PIF has ploughed hundreds of billions of dollars into the local economy, in everything from a camel dairy firm to NEOM, a gargantuan futuristic city in the desert.
Projects ahead include the 2029 Asian Winter Games, set to feature artificial snow and a man-made freshwater lake, and the 2034 World Cup, for which 11 new stadiums will be built and others renovated.
The finance ministry is "recalibrating and prioritising" spending to ensure the economy, including the private sector, can "catch up" while avoiding "overheating the economy," a spokesperson said.
"We are assessing the recent developments and stand ready to take whatever policy decisions needed to ensure that our fiscal position remains strong," the spokesperson said.
"We remain confident that most of our vision targets are either achieved or on track and we will deliver on the key events we are hosting."
The plunge in oil coincides with geopolitical realignments as U.S. President Donald Trump upends a global economic order in place since World World II.
Trump has pressured OPEC and its de facto leader Saudi Arabia to cut oil prices and urged Riyadh to invest $1 trillion in the United States. He is due to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates on his first foreign visit in May.
Lower oil prices "will likely lead to additional re-prioritisation of major projects, further rationalisation, revision of delivery timelines and a reduction in project work forces," said Neil Quilliam, associate fellow at the Middle East and North Africa Programme of London-based think tank Chatham House.
Yet, the government is likely to view the short-term risk of lower oil prices as worth the long-term benefit, Quilliam said, noting the kingdom enjoys a low debt-to-GDP ratio and confidence from lenders.
S&P raised Saudi Arabia's rating to 'A+' from 'A' last month, but said unfavourable oil price movements and more debt-funded investments were among factors that could lower that rating.
(Reporting by Yousef Saba; Editing by Elisa Martinuzzi and Bernadette Baum)
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Tourism Breaking News
an hour ago
- Tourism Breaking News
China extends visa-free entry to four GCC countries
Post Views: 35 China has launched a trial policy granting unilateral visa-free entry to citizens of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain, expanding its visa-free access list to 47 countries, as per the recent report. Effective until June 8, 2026, the policy allows ordinary passport holders from these four Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to enter China visa-free for up to 30 days for business, tourism, family visits, cultural exchange, and transit. The policy has been warmly received across the Gulf region and is expected to enhance bilateral exchanges, strengthen cultural and people-to-people ties, and drive broader cooperation between China and the GCC. Currently, around 20 direct flights operate weekly between key Chinese cities—including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen—and Saudi cities like Riyadh and Jeddah. The UAE is connected to 13 cities across mainland China through direct flights. This expansion marks a significant step in building economic and cultural relations between China and the Gulf states.


Zawya
2 hours ago
- Zawya
Nigeria: Naira may stabilise around $1.034 and $1.066 in near term —Experts
THE Nigerian National currency, naira, may stabilise around N1,600 and N1,650 in the near term, market experts have said. This submission was made by a number of experts who weighed in on the situation of the naira earlier this month. Renowned economist and Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Limited, Bismarck Rewane, who stated this at the June edition of the Lagos Business School Breakfast session, said that though the naira is currently undervalued at 26.82 percent, it is already approaching a fair value due to reforms. Rewane predicts that the naira will hover between N1,600 and N1,650 per dollar, citing improved FX market convergence and reduced speculative pressures. 'The spread is now within a N50 margin, meaning the naira is now fairly priced,' he said. He noted that the naira, though currently undervalued by 26.82 per cent is approaching a fair value due to reforms that have narrowed the gap between official and parallel market rates to within 1–3 per cent—a dramatic improvement from the 50–70 per cent disparity seen previously. In his broader economic forecast for June and July, Rewane anticipates a slight decline in inflation to 23.15 per cent Q1 2025 GDP growth of 3.4 per cent, and Brent crude trading between $60 and $63 per barrel, driven by increased OPEC+ output. He also projected Nigeria's oil production will rise to 1.5 million barrels per day, with petrol and diesel prices expected to drop to N845/litre and N950/litre respectively. Additionally, he expects the CBN's Monetary Policy Committee to reduce the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. Supporting Rewane's outlook, analysts at Meristem predicted relative stability for the naira, barring any sharp disruptions in foreign exchange inflows or spikes in speculative demand. Their May market report noted the naira appreciated in the official market but depreciated in the parallel market, widening the spread to N24.25/$ from N1.69/$ in April. This marked the first significant divergence since March 2025 and was attributed to persistent demand pressures and speculative activity amid global economic uncertainty. On the corporate front, Rewane reported strong revenue and profit growth, especially among companies sourcing locally and leveraging domestic credit markets. Increased issuance of commercial papers, higher yields, and improved FX transparency have enhanced investor sentiment, particularly in banking, infrastructure, and energy sectors. Cordros Capital analysts also linked the naira's recent strength to increased inflows from foreign portfolio investors, buoyed by easing global pressures and the CBN's proactive market interventions. They echoed the expectation of near-term stability as global headwinds moderate and investor interest in Nigeria's capital markets resurges. Overall, the consensus among analysts is that the naira, while currently undervalued, is on a path to medium-term stability, supported by economic reforms, improved investor confidence, and a narrowing official-parallel market rate gap. Despite closing at N1,553.12 to the US dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, June 5, 2025, experts are optimistic that the naira will stabilise within the range of N1,600 to N1,650 in the near term. According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the naira appreciated by 2.3 per cent over the past week, up from N1,579.27/$ at the start of the week, suggesting growing confidence in the foreign exchange market. The naira also strengthened against the dollar from the previous day's rate of N1,565.46/$. Copyright © 2022 Nigerian Tribune Provided by SyndiGate Media Inc. (


Zawya
3 hours ago
- Zawya
Nigeria's $5bln oil-backed loan from Aramco delayed by oil price drop, say sources
LAGOS/LONDON/BRUSSELS - Nigeria and Saudi Arabian oil company Aramco are struggling to reach an agreement on a record $5 billion oil-backed loan after a recent decline in crude prices sparked concern among banks that were expected to back the deal, four sources told Reuters. The facility would be Nigeria's largest oil-backed loan to date and Saudi Arabia's first participation of this scale in the country, although the decline in oil price could shrink the size of the deal, the sources said. Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu, two of the sources said, first broached the loan in November when he met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh at the Saudi-African Summit. Details and progress on the loan talks have not been previously reported. The slow progress in discussions reflects the strain of the recent oil price drop, caused largely by a shift in OPEC+ policy to regain market share rather than curtail supply. Brent has fallen about 20% to around $65 per barrel from above $82 in January. A lower oil price means Nigeria could need more barrels to back the loan, but years of under-investment are complicating its ability to meet production goals. Tinubu sought approval for $21.5 billion in foreign borrowing last month to bolster the budget, and the $5 billion oil-backed facility under discussion with Aramco would be part of that, sources said. The banks involved in the talks that are expected to co-fund part of the loan with creditor Aramco have expressed concerns about oil delivery, which has slowed discussions, sources said. Gulf banks and at least one African lender are involved, they added. Reuters could not establish the banks' identities. "It's hard to find anyone to underwrite it," one source said, citing concerns over the availability of the cargoes. Saudi Aramco declined to comment. Nigeria's state-owned oil company NNPC did not comment, and neither did the finance or petroleum ministries. SCARCE OIL Nigeria has years of experience taking out - and repaying - oil-backed loans - which the government uses for budget support, shoring up foreign reserves or to revamp state-owned refineries. At $5 billion, the Aramco loan would be backed by at least 100,000 barrels per day of oil, the sources said. However, it would almost double the roughly $7 billion of oil-backed loans taken in the last five years. Nigeria is using at least 300,000 bpd to repay NNPC's other oil-backed loans, though one facility is expected to be paid off this month. The amount of oil going towards repaying existing oil-backed loans is fixed, but when the crude price falls, it takes longer to repay them. Additionally, lower prices mean the NNPC has to funnel more crude oil to joint-venture partners, from international majors like Shell to local producers like Oando or Seplat, for its portion of operation costs. "You have to either find more oil, or find a way to renegotiate those deals," another source said. Nigerian trading firm Oando is expected to manage the offtake of the physical cargoes, the sources said. Oanda did not comment. NNPC is trying to boost output, while Tinubu issued an executive order aimed at cutting production costs, which would free more money from each barrel. Africa's largest oil exporter assumed a price of $75 per barrel in its budget, with production of 2 million bpd. But in April, it pumped just under 1.5 million bpd, according to the May OPEC market report.