Jake Paul is big favorite vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. Here's why.

USA Today

7 hours ago

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr., who is set to fight Jake Paul in a 10-round cruiserweight bout Saturday, June 28, hit boxing's DNA lottery.
He is the son of arguably the greatest Mexican boxer ever, Julio Cesar Chavez Sr. He also is a former WBC world middleweight champion who has fought the likes of Canelo Alvarez and world champions such as Sergio Martinez and Daniel Jacobs.
So why will Paul be the decisive betting favorite against Chavez when the men square off at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California, in a pay-per-view fight carried by DAZN?
Paul is listed as low as a -750 favorite, meaning bettors must wager $750 to win $100. Chavez is listed as low as +450, meaning bettors would win $450 on a wager of $100.
'Chavez Jr. is definitely the best boxer Paul has faced,'' said Shane Volk, risk manager at Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas.
Jay Kornegay, executive vice president of race and sportsbook operations at the Westgate SuperBook, said, 'Chavez has an opportunity to cash in not only this fight, but a possible rematch.''
But Chavez's boxing DNA and old world championship go only so far when it comes to setting the lines, according to the experts. (It also bears noting that while Chavez stepped inside the ring with Alvarez, Martinez and Jacobs, he also lost all three of those fights.)
Jake Paul, Chavez share common opponent
Both Chavez and Paul have stepped inside the boxing ring with Anderson Silva, the legendary MMA fighter.
Chavez faced him in 2021, when Silva had only two pro boxing matches. Chavez came into the bout 2.4 pounds over the maximum weight of 182 pounds, forfeited $100,000 of his purse to Silva as a result and then lost the eight-round fight by split decision.
Silva, then 46, out-landed Chavez in power punches, 60-41, and in overall punches, 99-53.
In 2022, Paul got his shot against Silva, then 2-2 as a pro boxer. Paul knocked him down in the eighth round, the final round of their fight, and won the bout by unanimous decision. Paul out-landed Silva in total punches, 83-79, and Silva out-landed Paul in power punches, 66-51.
"Jake was better than me today," Silva said. "I have nothing bad to say about my opponent."
There was no such praise for Chavez.
Watch the Jake Paul vs. Julio Cesar Chavez Jr. fight on DAZN
Recent activity favors Jake Paul
Chavez won the WBC world middleweight championship in 2011 with a victory over Sebastian Zbik by majority decision. At the time, Paul was 14 years old.
Now Paul is 28. Chavez is 39, and has not displayed his championship form in more than a decade.
Chavez (54-6-1, 34 KOs) has fought 49 more pro bouts than has Paul (11-1, 7 KOs). But since December 2021, Chavez has fought only once — a lackluster victory in a six-round fight over Uriah Hall, who had boxed professionally only once before, by unanimous decision. He has lost three of his six last fights, which included quitting after the fifth round in his bout against Jacobs.
By contrast, Paul has fought seven times since December 2021, and is coming off a victory over Mike Tyson by unanimous decision on Nov. 15, 2024.
Troubles outside of the ring
Paul, who embarked on his pro boxing career in January 2020, said the sport saved him. Stunts like setting a fire in the backyard of a West Hollywood home in which he lived cost him a lucrative acting job with the Disney Channel in 2017.
Chavez has had issues outside the ring, too.
In January 2024, he was arrested in Los Angeles on charges of felony gun possession charges after police said they found him in possession of two AR-style ghost rifles, according to ESPN and other published reports. He pleaded not guilty to the gun possession charges and agreed to enter residential treatment program, according to published reports. Court records indicate Chavez was granted pretrial diversion.
He's faced other issues.
In 2009, after a victory over Troy Rowland, Chavez tested positive for a banned diuretic and was suspended for seven months by the Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC). In 2012, after his fight with Martinez, he tested positive for cannabis and was suspended for nine months by the NSAC. In 2019, before his fight with Jacobs, he refused to take a drug test and was suspended again by the NSAC.
"Obviously his father had a historic, Hall of Fame career, and following those footsteps is very difficult,'' said Kornegay, who suggested Chavez's focus has come under question. Paul, by contrast, sounds laser focused on winning a world title no matter how farfetched his critics might think that is.
What betting line experts say
Alex Rella of BetMGM said, '... Chavez was a champion over a dozen years ago and he lost to Anderson Silva in 2021 who then lost to Jake Paul in 2022. Fight math may not be perfect, but it can help be indicative of the times and why Jake Paul is a -600 favorite (at BetMGM.)''
Shane Volk of Circa Sports said, "There are multiple reasons that Jake Paul is the favorite. When you look at familiar opponents Jake Paul beat Anderson Silva and Chavez Jr. lost to him. When Chavez Jr. was younger and active he would tire going into the later rounds. I think with Chavez Jr. getting older he'll struggle in the later rounds.''
Westgate SuperBook's Kornegay said he wonders if Chavez sees his fight as a 'paycheck'' and added, 'the boxing experts in Las Vegas said that he had some potential but got distracted with the out-of-the-ring thing.''