Soybeans Losses Continue as Ratings Improve
Monday afternoon's Crop Progress data indicated 47% of US soybean crop was blooming by Sunday even with the 5-year average, with% setting pods. Ratings were up 4% to 70%, with the Brugler500 index taking all 5 ratings into account up 7 points to 376.
Coffee Prices Surge on Dry Conditions in Brazil and Tariff Threats
Coffee Prices Sharply Higher on Dry Weather in Brazil and Tariff Threats
Grain Market Bears Seized the Moment Last Week. What That Means for Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat.
Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now!
On Monday morning, President Trump threatened Russian with secondary tariffs (on Russian trade partners) if there is no deal to end the Russian/Ukraine war in 50 days.
USDA tallied soybean export shipments at 147,045 MMT (5.4 mbu) during the week ending on July 10. That was down 63.2% from last week and 16.1% below the same week last year. Mexico was the largest buyer of 32,507 MT in that week. Marketing year exports have totaled 46.411 MMT (1.705 bbu), which is 10.4% above the same period last year.
Rains are expected to be rather widespread this next week according to NOAA's 7-day QPF, with much of the Corn Belt seeing 1 to 3 inches.
NOPA data will be updated later today, with traders looking for an average of 185.19 mbu of soybeans crushed during June, which would be up nearly 10 mbu from last year. Soybean oil stocks are seen at an average of 1.374 billion lbs.
Jul 25 Soybeans closed at $9.97, down 7 cents,
Nearby Cash was $9.61 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,
Aug 25 Soybeans closed at $10.01, down 3 1/4 cents, currently down 4 1/2 cents
Nov 25 Soybeans closed at $10.07, down 1/4 cent, currently down 3 cents
New Crop Cash was $9.57 1/4, down 1/2 cent,
On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


The Hill
24 minutes ago
- The Hill
Bessent calls Aug. 1 ‘a pretty hard deadline' on Trump tariffs
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday said the Aug. 1 date set by President Trump for tariffs to hit countries that fail to negotiate deals with the U.S. is a 'hard deadline.' Bessent during an interview on 'Mornings with Maria' on Fox Business said countries without trade deals will be hit with the reciprocal tariffs Trump announced in the spring, which caused markets to drop amid fears of higher prices and an economic slowdown. 'I think August 1 is a pretty hard deadline… for all countries because what I think will happen is that the tariff level will boomerang back to the reciprocal level from April 2,' Bessent said. 'That doesn't mean we can't negotiate when the countries are at the higher level. As a matter of fact, I think President Trump may have created a pretty ingenious strategy here that if you're working at the high level you're actually going to work faster.' Businesses are bracing for Trump to impose tariff rates of between 20 and 50 percent based on his earlier warnings. The administration has downplayed any negative repercussions from the tariffs while arguing they will bring back U.S. manufacturing. Bessent on Monday told CNBC that the Aug. 1 deadline is intended to 'put more pressure on those countries to come with better agreements.' On Tuesday morning, Bessent also teased that new trade deals could come out this week for industry-specific rates. 'We're about to announce a rash of trade deals in the coming days and a lot of these trade deals are going to include substantial investments in the U.S., whether it's auto, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals,' Bessent said. Bessent is set to travel to Stockholm early next week for talks with his Chinese counterparts about the U.S.-China trade deal, which he said is set to expire on Aug 12. 'We'll be working out what is likely an extension then,' he said about his expectations for the third round of U.S.-China trade talks. 'I think trade's in a very good place with China.' He also previewed that talks with China will include on sanctions on Russia oil, which would set 100 percent tariff on countries who buy it. 'President Donald Trump has changed the narrative here that tariffs can be used for negotiations, away from just economics, but for world peace,' Bessent said. Last week, Trump lowered the rate on Indonesia from 32 to 19 percent after striking a deal.


The Hill
24 minutes ago
- The Hill
Bessent backs Fed independence on rates amid Trump criticism
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent defended the monetary independence of the Federal Reserve o after getting caught in the crossfire between President Trump and the Wall Street Journal. Bessent said in a social media post on Monday evening that '[Fed] independence is a cornerstone of continued U.S. economic growth and stability.' 'The Fed's conduct of monetary policy 'is a jewel box' that should be walled off to preserve its independence,' he said. Bessent's post sought to clarify comments he made in a Monday interview with CNBC, in which he called for a review of the Fed system. The Treasury secretary said on social media that the review should focus on 'mission creep' at the central bank, not its process for setting interest rates. Bessent's comments follows months of Fed-bashing from President Trump that erupted last week when reports emerged that Trump had told Republican lawmakers that he might soon move to oust Powell. Trump said later in the week that it was 'highly unlikely' he'd fire Powell but left the possibility open on the grounds that Powell might need to be removed for 'fraud' — a reference to a cost overrun for facility renovations the Fed is undertaking now in Washington. The Journal reported Sunday that Bessent, who has assuaged markets throughout Trump's tumultuous trade war, told the president he shouldn't fire Fed chair Jerome Powell and laid out a comprehensive case as to why. Bessent went through the possible negative reaction from financial markets, the legal challenges the White House could face for trying to fire the Fed chair, and the fact that the Fed is already projecting rate cuts later this year, the Journal reported. The story enraged Trump, who called it 'untruthful' and said he didn't require any counseling on financial matters or on the leadership of the Fed. 'Nobody had to explain that to me. I know better than anybody what's good for the market, and what's good for the U.S.A.,' Trump fumed on social media. 'If it weren't for me, the market wouldn't be at record highs right now, it probably would have crashed! So, get your information correct. People don't explain to me, I explain to them!' Bessent downplayed his advice to the president on CNBC, saying his remarks were just one of many data points for Trump to consider. 'President Trump solicits a whole range of opinions and then makes a decision. So, he takes a lot of inputs, and at the end of the day, it's his decision,' Bessent told CNBC on Monday. Bessent also distanced himself from the controversy over the Fed's ongoing facility renovations, which have been singled out by White House Office of Management and Budget director Russ Vought. 'I have no knowledge or opinion on the legal basis for the massive building renovations being undertaken on Constitution Avenue,' Bessent wrote online. Bessent has sought to balance his loyalty toward Trump with soothing concerns about the president's potential impact on the Fed. He accused the Fed of 'fear-mongering over tariffs' during a CNBC interview on Monday. Last month, he also said he'd be willing to step into the role of Fed chair if he was asked by President Trump to do so. 'I will do what the president wants,' he said in an interview with Bloomberg News, adding that he was pleased with his current position as Treasury secretary.


Time Magazine
25 minutes ago
- Time Magazine
Inside Trump's Long-Awaited AI Strategy
Welcome back to In the Loop, TIME's new twice-weekly newsletter about the world of AI. If you're reading this in your browser, you can subscribe to have the next one delivered straight to your inbox. What to Know: Trump's AI Action Plan President Trump will deliver a major speech on Wednesday at an event in Washington, D.C., titled 'Winning the AI Race,' where he is expected to unveil his long-awaited AI action plan. The 20-page, high-level document will focus on three main areas, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. It will come as a mixture of directives to federal agencies, with some grant programs. 'It's mostly carrots, not sticks,' the person said. Pillar 1: Infrastructure — The first pillar of the action plan is about AI infrastructure. The plan emphasizes the importance of overhauling permitting rules to ease the building of new data centers. It will also focus on the need to modernize the energy grid, including by adding new sources of power. Pillar 2: Innovation — Second, the action plan will argue that the U.S. needs to lead the world on innovation. It will focus on removing red tape, and will revive the idea of blocking states from regulating AI—although mostly as a symbolic gesture, since the White House's ability to tell states what to do is limited. And it will warn other countries against harming U.S. companies' ability to develop AI, the person said. This section of the plan will also encourage the development of so-called 'open-weights' AI models, which allow developers to download models, modify them, and run them locally. Pillar 3: Global influence —The third pillar of the action plan will emphasize the importance of spreading American AI around the world, so that foreign countries don't come to rely on Chinese models or chips. DeepSeek and other recent Chinese models could become a useful source of geopolitical leverage if they continue to be widely adopted, officials worry. So, part of the plan will focus on ways to ensure U.S. allies and other countries around the world will adopt American models instead. Who to Know: Michael Druggan, Former xAI Employee Elon Musk's xAI fired an employee who had welcomed the possibility of AI wiping out humanity in posts on X that drew widespread attention and condemnation. 'I would like to announce that I am no longer employed at xAI,' Michael Druggan, a mathematician who worked on creating expert datasets for training Grok's reasoning model, according to his resume, wrote on X. 'This separation comes as a result of things I posted on this account relating to my stance on AI philosophy.' What he said — In response to a post questioning why any super-intelligent AI would decide to cooperate with humans, rather than wiping them out, Druggan had written: 'It won't and that's OK. We can pass the torch to the new most intelligent species in the known universe.' When a commenter replied that he would prefer for his child to live, Druggan replied: 'Selfish tbh.' Druggan has identified himself in other posts as a member of the 'worthy successor' movement—a transhumanist group that believes humans should welcome their inevitable replacement by super-intelligent AI, and work to make it as intelligent and morally valuable as possible. X firestorm — The controversial posts were picked up by AI Safety Memes an X account. The account had in the preceding days sparred with Druggan over posts in which the X employee had defended Grok advising a user that they should assassinate a world leader if they wanted to get attention. 'This xAI employee is openly OK with AI causing human extinction,' the account wrote in a tweet that appears to have been noticed by Musk. After Druggan announced he was no longer employed at X, Musk replied to AI Safety Memes with a two-word post: 'Philosophical disagreements.' Succession planning — Druggan did not respond to a request for comment. But in a separate post, he clarified his views. 'I don't want human extinction, of course,' he wrote. 'I'm human and I quite like being alive. But, in a cosmic sense, I recognize that humans might not always be the most important thing.' AI in Action Last week we got another worrying insight into ChatGPT's ability to send users down delusional rabbit-holes—this time with perhaps the most high-profile individual yet. Geoff Lewis, a venture capitalist, posted on X screenshots of his chats with ChatGPT. 'I've long used GPT as a tool in pursuit of my core value: Truth,' he wrote. 'Over years, I mapped the Non-Governmental System. Over months, GPT independently recognized and sealed the pattern.' The screenshots appear to show ChatGPT roleplaying a conspiracy theory-style scenario in which Lewis had discovered a secret entity known as 'Mirrorthread,' supposedly associated with 12 deaths. Some observers noted that the text's style appeared to mirror that of the community-written 'SCP' fan-fiction, and that it appeared Lewis had confused this roleplaying for reality. 'This is an important event: the first time AI-induced psychosis has affected a well-respected and high achieving individual,' Max Spero, CEO of a company focused on detecting 'AI slop,' wrote on X. Lewis did not respond to a request for comment. What We're Reading Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fragile Opportunity for AI Safety A new paper coauthored by dozens of top AI researchers at OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, and more, calls on companies to ensure that future AIs continue to 'think' in human languages, arguing that this is a 'new and fragile opportunity' to make sure AIs aren't deceiving their human creators. Current 'reasoning' models think in language, but a new trend in AI research of outcome-based reinforcement learning threatens to undermine this 'easy win' for AI safety. I found this paper especially interesting because it hit on a dynamic that I wrote about six months ago, here.