‘Too Soon to Celebrate,' Says Investor About Tesla Stock
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Though the company has been teasing the idea of self-driving cars for over a decade, its track record has not totally matched the hyperbole of CEO Elon Musk. Indeed, Musk stated way back in 2013 that Tesla was aiming to have the technology to drive 90% of all miles by 2016.
Flash forward to the present day, and what was once revolutionary has now become a battlefield full of fierce competition, and Tesla has now clearly fallen behind Google's Waymo for primacy in the self-driving market. Waymo is now operating some 250,000 weekly trips, and has staked out 27% of the local rideshare market in San Francisco.
Can the Robotaxi event succeed in flipping the narrative back to Tesla?
One investor, known by the pseudonym, Stone Fox Capital advises investors not to pop the champagne bottles just yet.
'Tesla already appears valued based on initial robotaxi success, and this doesn't appear guaranteed,' states the 5-star investor.
Stone Fox notes that TSLA is so far behind Waymo that the term 'taking a Waymo' might soon become part of everyday language. Launching a small 10-car pilot program in Austin, the investor argues, isn't exactly the game-changer some investors are hoping for.
'The big risk is that a robotaxi delay continues to allow Waymo to control the market while the robotaxi service launch appears already priced into the stock,' adds Stone Fox.
Moreover, some of Musk's recent comments – such as the fact that the 'same strengths and weaknesses' of human drivers will be present with Tesla's FSD technology – are not exactly inspiring confidence.
While Stone Fox isn't discounting Tesla's potential to eventually rake in the dollars, the investor doesn't see that happening anytime soon.
'Investors can likely buy Tesla at a lower price once the far-flung excitement disappears, even if the company is on the path to a successful robotaxi business,' concludes Stone Fox Capital, but for now the investor's advice is to steer clear of this one and Sell. (To watch Stone Fox Capital's track record, click here)
Meanwhile, Wall Street is firmly divided on this one. With 16 Buy, 10 Hold, and 11 Sell recommendations, TSLA has a consensus Hold (i.e. Neutral) rating. The average price target of $282.70 suggests about 18% downside from current levels – an outlook Stone Fox would likely endorse. (See TSLA stock forecast)
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