March Madness 2025 betting, odds, lines: Three key storylines for the NCAA tournament

Yahoo

17-03-2025

[Full NCAA tournament bracket revealed | Printable bracket]
Selection Sunday has passed, the 2025 NCAA tournament bracket has been released and it's officially March Madness. As usual, there were several surprises during the bracket reveal (Indiana? Didn't make it. North Carolina? Squeezed in to the First Four on Tuesday and are four-point favorites against San Diego State), but we're here to talk betting — and specifically some of the notable storylines coming out of the opening odds.
Here are three storylines that stood out after the bracket was revealed and sportsbooks put up their Round 1 odds:
The Auburn Tigers are the No. 1 overall seed, according to the selection committee, but it's another No. 1 seed — the Florida Gators at +350 odds — who are the betting favorites to win March Madness at BetMGM, followed by the No. 1 seeded Duke Blue Devils (+360), Auburn (+400) and No. 1 seed Houston (+600). Two-time defending champion UConn is a No. 8 seed and 50-1 to win it all again at BetMGM.
'We're definitely rooting against St. John's,' Thomas Gable, BetMGM sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told Yahoo Sports on Sunday night. 'They've been extremely popular and we have a lot of liability on them. They were 50-1 through the vast majority of the season and 25-1 going into the conference tournament. Houston has been in single digits, but we've built up a little bit of liability on them. We do have liability on Duke, but if Auburn or Florida wins, we're in great shape.'
Duke and Auburn are tied at +350 for the best title odds at DraftKings Sportsbook, while at several sportsbooks nationally and in Las Vegas, the Blue Devils are the favorites. Houston is the team with the highest power rating according to Bart Torvik, while Ken Pom has Duke clearly as the top squad in the nation.
I spoke with three different oddsmakers on Sunday evening and all of them had Duke as their highest power-rated team, with one making Duke a 3.5-point favorite over his No. 2 team, Florida, on a neutral court.
The biggest futures wager I've heard so far is a $100,000 wager at BetMGM on Florida at +900 odds. That bet would pay $900,000 if the Gators end up cutting down the nets.
Here are a couple other notable futures wagers at Caesars:
A New York bettor wagered $1,000 on Georgia (750-1) to win the NCAA championship for a potential $750,000 win
A Nevada bettor wagered $300 on UC-San Diego (1,000-1) to win the NCAAchampionship for a potential $330,000 win
A Colorado bettor wagered $10,000 on Houston (22-1) to win the NCAA championship for a potential $220,000 win
A Nevada bettor wagered $30,000 on Auburn (+350) to win the NCAA championship for a potential $105,000 win
An Arizona bettor wagered $10,000 on UConn (+900) to win the NCAA championship for a potential $90,000 win
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Favorites ended up going 18-3-1 against the spread in Round 1 last year, and there were eight games in which a higher-seeded team closed as a favorite.
This year, there were only two of those games with opening lines that fit the latter mold — No. 12 Colorado State (-2.5) vs. No. 5 Memphis, and No. 9 Baylor (-1.5) vs. No. 8 Mississippi State — and the Baylor-Mississippi State game had already moved to pick 'em at several Las Vegas books Sunday night.
Underdogs had quite a first round in last year's NCAA tournament. There were 11 outright upsets in 32 overall games — including No. 13 Yale (+14) over No. 4 Auburn, and No. 14 Oakland (+13.5) over No. 3 Kentucky — which was tied for the third most in a single year in the Round of 64, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But it was a very easy (and profitable) go of it for the top three seeds, which went 11-1 straight up and 10-1-1 ATS in the first round.
Here is the SU/ATS records for teams in Round 1 of the 2024 NCAA tournament, sorted by seed:
No. 1 seeds: 4-0 SU/4-0 ATS
No. 2 seeds: 4-0 SU/3-0-1 ATS
No. 3 seeds: 3-1 SU/3-1 ATS
No. 4 seeds: 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS
No. 5 seeds: 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS
No. 6 seeds: 1-3 SU/1-3 ATS
No. 7 seeds: 3-1 SU/3-1 ATS
No. 8 seeds: 1-3 SU/1-3 ATS
After all those upsets in the first round last year, though, favorites went a remarkable 15-1 SU and 11-5 ATS in the Round of 32. What will this year hold?
There is always plenty of line movement in March Madness spreads on Sunday night, as some sportsbooks open odds before others and offer higher limits. Two of the sportsbooks in Las Vegas known to open early and cater to respected action are the South Point and the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. I spoke to Chris Andrews, sportsbook director at the South Point, on Sunday night and these were the five games he received sharp action on and moved the lines:
No. 14 Montana +23 to +16 vs. No. 3 Wisconsin
No. 15 Omaha +21 to +18 vs. No. 2. St. John's
No. 13 Yale +10 to +7.5 vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 14 UNC-Wilmington +18 to +15 vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
No. 8 UConn -2 to -4.5 vs. No. 9 Oklahoma
Respected bettors at the SuperBook took positions on No. 1 Houston -28, No. 8 Mississippi State +1, No. 15 Bryant +18.5, No. 13 Akron +14 and No. 14 Troy +11, in addition to No. 11 Xavier -1.5 in Wednesday's First Four game against Texas.
The biggest line move at the BetMGM sportsbook at The Borgata was No. 8 Gonzaga steaming up as a favorite against No. 9 Georgia.
'Gonzaga got hit here very fast,' Gable said. 'I opened them -4.5, took a couple limit bets right away and we're up to -6.5.'
One other interesting line is No. 5 Michigan, winners of the Big Ten tournament, installed as a 3.5-point favorite over No. 12 UC-San Diego — a line that had already gone down to -2.5 on Sunday night. However, maybe even more interesting is that Gable actually makes UCSD a 1-point favorite by his numbers.
'UCSD is going to be a popular 'dog," Gable said. "We opened at Michigan -3.5, now down to -2.5, and I wouldn't be surprised if this goes a little bit lower.'