Platinum And Palladium: The Next Bubble Minerals

Forbes

15-07-2025

palladium, a transition metal, used in the production of military aerospace equipment and in the ... More manufacture of catalysts, palladium stones, Metal used in industry. local focus
I last wrote about platinum for Forbes on June 23rd.
This was the chart:
The palladium chart on June 23rd
When I first wrote about it here on May 15th, platinum was around $1,000.
It is now at $1,400.
This is the current situation:
The current palladium chart
Certainly, a trend of appreciating precious metals is at work, but there is also the theme of 'strategic and critical metals' anxiety pushing platinum. On top of that, under the hood, is AI – not the AI under the hood of cars, but AI as a core driver of market moves. AI means that the internal combustion engine is not going away because the implied future demand for energy is now infinite. This is because the demand for AI is infinite, and AI depends heavily on silicon and pure energy consumption. As such, all forms of energy will be utilized, which is why, if you wondered, nuclear energy is no longer the scourge of humanity and back in favor like it was in the 1950s. As the world continues to burn carbon-based fuels alongside all the other energy-generating materials, you better have platinum to try to clean up the mess.
You also better have palladium.
The trouble is, only roughly 200 tonnes of each metal are mined every year. That is basically none. Even precious and rare gold has a production of 3,200 tonne a year. I focus on these numbers because they are so simple and stark. 200 tonnes is about what 100 American families consume by weight of stuff a year. It's a rounding error in the modern economic scheme of things. The price of platinum and palladium must rise.
It is quite a tricky prospect to ride this near certainty, and as such I hold ETFs and Sibanye Stillwater (NYSE:SBSW). I'm not fan of pricey or difficult-to-hold stocks. This is why physical ETFs are my preferred instrument, and SBSW sneaks in as the only stock I can stomach. Meanwhile, the chartist in me sees palladium as the sweet spot. Here is why:
Platinum and palladium charts compared
In old market parlance, palladium is the fast horse.
But like the market stall trader selling steak knives I have to say, 'That's not all, Mister, take a look at this!'
Platinum, palladium and gold charts compared
This chart tells a story of platinum and palladium following gold. You expect that, but what you see in 2016 was how gold and platinum used to be valued: they were 1:1. That parity is gone, but why wouldn't it return? Production is 3,200 tonnes for gold and 200 tonnes for platinum, and for a very long time, platinum was more expensive than gold – just as it is for Rolex owners today.
From this chart, you can also see how their prices can explode, as palladium did in 2020–2022. The supply is tight because production is so small.
In consequence, I am very much talking my own book because I am well vested in platinum and palladium. This technical setup looks spectacular, and the fundamentals are there to back it up. When I started writing about platinum and palladium, it was contrarian. Not anymore.