Tasmanian parliament passes vote of no confidence in premier Jeremy Rockliff
The Tasmanian parliament's lower house has passed a vote of no confidence in the Liberal leader. The motion – moved by the Labor leader, Dean Winter – was backed by the Greens and three other crossbenchers. The speaker, Labor's Michelle O'Byrne, gave a casting vote to pass the motion 18-17
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The Guardian
6 hours ago
- The Guardian
China has a stranglehold on the world's rare-earths supply chain. Can Australia break it?
Weeks after China retaliated against Donald Trump's tariffs by suspending exports of a range of rare-earth elements and related high-powered magnets, Ford was forced to pause a production line in Chicago. Days later, executives from other major carmakers, including General Motors and Toyota, told the White House their suppliers faced an impending shortage of necessary materials that could shut assembly lines. The speed of the fallout shows just how reliant the world has become on China's mineral supply chain and its production of rare-earth magnets , used in everything from wind turbines and medical devices to combustion and electric motors, and ballistic missile guidance systems. The Albanese government believes it can help break China's dominance, but experts say the challenge is enormous. Prof John Mavrogenes, from the Australian National University's research school of earth sciences, says the government needs to dramatically boost its investment in skills, education and technology if it wants to develop the domestic capability to manufacture rare-earth products, namely magnets. 'The question over who can deal with the processing and the making of magnets is a really big one, and quite hard to get your head around because we've let China just take that business over,' says Mavrogenes. 'The question is capability. Who's ready to ramp up if we need to? One country that I know isn't ready is Australia. 'We need so many metallurgists and chemical engineers, and we need them tomorrow. We probably need 10, 20, 50 times more than we're producing.' China is a large producer of rare earths and has near-complete control over the refining processes needed to make the minerals useful. It produces about 90% of rare-earth magnets, completing its control of the supply chain. It has become a very efficient, cost-effective provider of rare-earth materials, although given some of the historical environmental damage caused by their extraction and processing, it has paid a price. Sign up for a weekly email featuring our best reads Economies around the world have benefited from China's rare earths industry. The system seemed to work, until it didn't. In 2010, China starved Japan's hi-tech manufacturing industries by halting shipments of rare earths for about two months, after a dispute over a detained Chinese fishing trawler captain. In late 2023, China formalised a ban on the export of rare-earth separation technologies. Two months ago, China placed export restrictions on seven strategically chosen rare earths and the end product, magnets. While the recent curbs were sparked by Trump's tariffs, Beijing applied the export controls to all countries. It has implemented a new export permit system, choking the world of supply. Rare-earth magnets need a lot of two light rare-earth elements, neodymium and praseodymium, which are not subject to China's export curbs. But more powerful, heat-resistant magnets used in automotive and defence industries tend to require dysprosium or terbium, which are called heavy rare earths because of their atomic weights. Dysprosium and terbium are on China's list of suspended rare earths, as is samarium, which is also used in hi-tech applications. Until recently, the desire to develop a rare earths sector has been pitched by governments as a means to fuel the transition to clean energy technology and electric vehicles. Sign up to Five Great Reads Each week our editors select five of the most interesting, entertaining and thoughtful reads published by Guardian Australia and our international colleagues. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Saturday morning after newsletter promotion But now, it's also taken on the pressing aim of shoring up supplies of materials required for national interests, including defence. Australia, rich in resources, is seen as a natural competitor to China that could break into its rare-earths supply chain. The Albanese government has openly discussed this desire for well over two years, and officials have crisscrossed the country, from Dubbo in New South Wales to Western Australia and Northern Territory, offering grants, funding and other assistance in order to develop bona fide domestic processing capabilities. Notably, the government has backed the development of Iluka's Eneabba project in WA, which is designed to come online in 2027 and produce several rare-earth oxides, including dysprosium and terbium. Iluka's chief executive, Tom O'Leary, told shareholders last month the 'current industry is unsustainable, owing to China's monopoly position and approach'. 'It is a fact that rare earths are among very few metals where China has demonstrated a preparedness to withhold supply to achieve political or strategic objectives,' O'Leary said. Another Australian company, Lynas, is a step ahead, given it has some rare-earths processing capabilities out of Kalgoorlie. It relies on further refining at its factory in Malaysia, which recently became the first to separate heavy rare-earth elements, primarily dysprosium and terbium, outside China. The Labor government has also proposed setting up a strategic stockpile of critical minerals. While the details of this plan are scant, such a stockpile, by building up supplies, could provide pricing certainty for projects affected by the current monopoly market. The government's various funding announcements show that Australia is focusing on the initial extraction and refining of rare earths, but not on the process of turning that material into metals and, in turn, manufacturing magnets. There are mixed views on whether that is the right approach, given the strategy falls short of developing an end-to-end rare-earths supply chain in Australia, independent of China, as some had hoped for. There has also been limited discussion of the potential for magnet recycling in Australia. Rowena Smith, the chief executive of Australian Strategic Materials, says it is more realistic for Australia to partner with overseas magnet producers outside China than to quickly develop capabilities to produce magnets. 'The opportunity for Australia is to play to our strengths upstream and integrate with allied partners into those emerging magnet manufacturers,' says Smith. 'It would be ambitious to get this supply chain up rapidly in Australia, because you need every piece of the supply chain to come online simultaneously.'
The Guardian
7 hours ago
- The Guardian
Confusion and chaos reign in Tasmanian parliament with no endgame in sight
Craig Garland, the fisherman turned maverick independent MP from Tasmania's north-western corner, summed it up best when he told state parliament on Thursday morning he was 'a bit confused'. Garland wasn't confused about what he was doing – he calmly backed a no-confidence motion in the Liberal premier, Jeremy Rockliff. But he expressed doubts about how the Tasmanian parliament got here, and what lay ahead. Based on the reaction online and on talkback radio, many Tasmanians agree. From the outside – and to many on the inside – the events in parliament this week look like a form of collective madness that was entirely avoidable and, despite all the strong words, largely pointless. The vote of no-confidence in Rockliff, moved by the Labor leader Dean Winter, passed on Thursday afternoon by the barest of margins: 18-17. It has pushed the state to the brink of a fresh election just 15 months since the last one. Bizarrely, the state finds itself in this position despite all the major players – Liberals, Labor and the Greens – declaring loudly that an election is a bad idea and should not happen. Each had the power to prevent one. Which is not to say all are equally to blame. We need to briefly rewind 15 months. On 23 March last year, Tasmanians chose what some have called a rainbow parliament, and others have described as chaos: 14 Liberals, 10 Labor, five Greens, three MPs from the Jacqui Lambie Network (JLN) and three independents. No party was close to the 18 seats needed for a majority government, but the Liberals had a clear plurality of support. Winter declined to try to lead the state despite the crossbench being made up largely of progressive MPs, declaring he would never deal with the Greens. Sign up for a weekly email featuring our best reads Rockliff won a promise of support on confidence and budget supply from JLN and the independent David O'Byrne, a former Labor leader, who would prefer an ALP government but wanted the parliament to work. In the months that followed JLN fell apart and the government's position became more precarious. The sole remaining JLN MP, Andrew Jenner, refused to vote for a budget released in September, breaking his commitment to ensure the government survived. The then treasurer and deputy premier, Michael Ferguson, was forced to resign and move to the backbench when he faced what would have been a successful no-confidence vote over mismanagement of new Spirit of Tasmania ferries. And the Greens moved two no-confidence motions in Rockliff – one over a shelved gambling harm minimisation promise, the other over a controversial AFL stadium planned for Macquarie Point, on Hobart's waterfront. Despite the noise, the premier appeared relatively safe. Just last month, Labor argued the state needed a period of stability. That changed on Tuesday, when Winter surprised observers by tabling a no-confidence motion at the end of a budget reply speech, and declaring he would move it when it was clear it had enough support. It was a dare to both the crossbench and the government. But it was a tactic without a clear endgame. The motion was ostensibly about the budget, arguing Rockliff had wrecked the state's finances, planned to sell public assets and had mismanaged the ferries. Handed down five days earlier, the budget had been widely criticised for increasing debt and spending, and failing to provide solutions to structural problems. Some government supporters said it was the worst they had seen. But the opposition leader did not make a case for what Labor would do differently, and did not make a pitch to become premier if the no-confidence motion carried. The goal was to either push the Greens to side with Rockliff to prevent chaos or, more likely, claim the premier's scalp by forcing the Liberals to replace him, almost certainly with someone less popular. Neither happened. The motion quickly won backing on Tuesday from Garland, Jenner, and the independent Kristie Johnston (who had backed earlier no-confidence motions). The Greens declared their support after meeting on Wednesday morning. But the Greens did not want the motion to just be about the budget. The minor party tried to amend it to include a rejection of the stadium – one of the biggest issues dominating public debate in the state over the past year given the likely $1bn-plus cost, and because admission of the Tasmania Devils to the AFL hinges on it being built. Their leader, Rosalie Woodruff, also offered to work with Labor to try to form an alternative government. Both steps were rejected. The Greens knew they would be. They backed the motion anyway. Some commentary over the past week assumed the motion would lead to a Labor-Greens minority government. But the relationship between the two parties in the state is hostile, and they are ideologically miles apart. Winter's defining position since becoming Labor leader last year has been to argue for 'traditional industries' – including native forest logging, salmon farming and mining – and to reject suggestions he would work with the minor party. Winter did not speak with crossbenchers before tabling the no-confidence motion, and Labor and the Greens mostly voted against Rockliff for different reasons. Sign up to Five Great Reads Each week our editors select five of the most interesting, entertaining and thoughtful reads published by Guardian Australia and our international colleagues. Sign up to receive it in your inbox every Saturday morning after newsletter promotion There is deep history to this. Labor and the Greens fell out after governing in partnership from 2010 to 2014, a period in which two Greens held ministries. The relationship has become more distant under Winter, who is close to the former premier Paul Lennon, an assertively pro-industry and anti-green figure. It doesn't take much analysis to realise this raises questions about whether Labor can form government anytime soon, given it has lost four straight elections and has less than a third of seats in the state's lower house. It continues to argue it could win a majority. Labor and the Greens are also sharply divided over the stadium, which has become the most politically charged issue facing the state and driven significant public resentment against the government. Polls suggest a majority of the public are opposed to it in every electorate, especially in the state's parochial north. But the stadium has the support of both major parties – not least because neither wants to stand accused of killing the long-held dream of a Tasmanian AFL team, which still has overwhelming public support. There is a strong case that a new stadium will be needed in the state's capital for the club to be a success. But the state government spectacularly stuffed up the argument. It signed a lopsided deal under which the AFL pays a meagre $15m of the direct funding for the stadium's construction. Predictably, the cost of the stadium to taxpayers has blown out beyond Rockliff's initial pledge it would be capped at $375m. And the site itself is controversial. The premier has broken promises on the issue, most recently trying to push through legislation to circumvent the independent-heavy upper house from potentially blocking the stadium. Meanwhile, the AFL has refused to budge from its line – no stadium at Macquarie Point, no team. Critics including the Greens accuse the government of caving to AFL pressure, point to crises facing the state on housing and health, and argue a stadium cannot be justified. Some have claimed, without evidence, the AFL could be forced to redraw the deal. Some vocal critics don't care if there is a team. But that's not where most of the public is. It's a mess that continues to hurt the government, but doesn't necessarily win support for Labor. As the no-confidence motion was debated, Tasmania Devils executive Kath McCann broke down at a press conference as she argued the future of the club was uncertain if Rockliff was removed. While it wasn't the subject of the no-confidence motion, you could make a decent case that the stadium – including the AFL's refusal to accommodate genuinely held Tasmanian concerns – will cost Rockliff his job. But that hasn't happened yet, and it is not clear if it will. The Liberals have backed Rockliff, for now at least, rather than replace him with one of a list of potential contenders. Liberal MPs have argued the budget was backed by the government, not just Rockliff, and supported his push for an early election if the no-confidence motion was passed. They may yet change their minds. Business leaders warn an election would hurt confidence and stall investment. Some senior Liberal figures have urged the parliamentary party elect a new leader to avoid forcing Tasmanians vote again. The parliament has to return on Tuesday to pass a short-term supply bill before Rockliff plans to speak with the governor, Barbara Baker, so they have a few days to work it out. If there is an election, it is difficult to see either major party approaching a majority of seats. The most recent ERMS poll had Labor on 31% support, ahead of the Liberals, who fell five percentage points to just 29%. But 37% said they preferred someone else. This doesn't bode well for the major parties, which have struggled to come to grips with the reality of an expanded 35-member parliament in which no one has control. The Liberals failed to maintain the support of enough MPs. Labor has done little to develop a relationship with the crossbench. Tasmanians might soon tell them that's not good enough, and to try again.
The Guardian
7 hours ago
- The Guardian
Albanese must tread a fine line when he meets Trump. He can't bow to him but he can't alienate the US either
Things were tense as John Gorton prepared to meet Lyndon Johnson at the White House in May 1968. In office just a few months, the Australian prime minister had criticised the US president for a lack of consultation over America's military plans for the Vietnam war in the lead up to the important visit. In a briefing note uncovered by the historian James Curran, Gorton was described to his hosts as having a crumpled nose 'like an ex-prize fighter'. Worse, Washington was warned that the Australian leader was a 'conclusion jumper' and lacked experience in foreign affairs. Sign up for Guardian Australia's breaking news email Despite meetings at the White House and a visit to the famed LBJ ranch in Texas, Gorton left America feeling uneasy about his relationship with Johnson and how the trip would play to the domestic audience at home. Anthony Albanese could be forgiven for a similar feeling. The Labor leader is expected to have his first face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Calgary, Canada. Since Trump emerged as the lightning rod third candidate in the federal election campaign, Albanese has struggled to get his counterpart on the phone to plead Australia's case for an exemption to the president's growing roster of trade tariffs. Albanese described the decision by Australia's most important ally as an act of economic self-harm and not the actions of a friend, but he also weaponised the spectre of Trump-style politics in his demolition of Peter Dutton on 3 May. Once in the room, Albanese is expected to talk up Australia's supply of rare earths and critical minerals as he fights for exemptions from the 50% tariff now applied to steel and aluminium imports, and Australia's inclusion in the 10% baseline rate Trump imposed back in April. China dominates global supplies of critical minerals, required for specialist manufacturing, and a reliable ally able to balance the ledger should be helpful for the US, especially in the event of a conflict with Beijing. Albanese said on Friday he was not prepared to give ground on one longstanding American gripe. He said any move to weaken a biosecurity ban on some beef imports from the US in exchange for more favourable tariff treatment was a non-starter. Bans have existed since a 2003 mad cow disease outbreak, with cattle raised in Canada and Mexico but slaughtered in the US still barred under 2019 rules. Other irritants include the decades-long fight by America's pharma companies to kill off Australia's Pharmaceuticals Benefits Scheme, and the news media bargaining code, viewed in the White House as unfairly targeting American social media companies. If a meeting between the two leaders is locked in over coming days, Albanese will undoubtedly be trying to avoid an ambush like those endured by Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy and South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa in the Oval Office. Trump's treatment of then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull in their infamous phone call back in January 2017 is still front of mind for Australian diplomats as well. Albanese said on Friday he would seek to continue cordial conversations with Trump, even if relations between the pair deteriorated. 'I deal with people, whoever they are, in the same respectful way. I expect respect back,' Albanese told ABC radio in Melbourne. 'I'm the prime minister of Australia. We don't have a subservient relationship to any nation. We're a sovereign nation that stands on our own two feet.' Albanese seems to have charmed the capricious commander-in-chief – so far, at least. Last month Trump said he had a very good relationship with his Australian counterpart, telling reporters on the White House lawn Albanese had been 'very, very nice' and 'very respectful' to him. Sign up to Breaking News Australia Get the most important news as it breaks after newsletter promotion In reality, the pair have little in common. A reality TV star turned politician, Trump lived a gilded lifestyle in Manhattan before entering politics, rolling around the city as a playboy property developer, married three times and courting tabloid reporters to boast about his exploits. A Democrat and donor to Hillary Clinton before joining the Republican party to run for president, Trump's loyalties are transactional at best. Albanese was raised by a single mother in public housing in Sydney. His mentor and father figure was the Labor great Tom Uren. A former prisoner of war and minister in the Whitlam and Hawke governments, Uren taught his protege the spirit of collectivism, caring for vulnerable people and using political power to improve people's lives. Recent meetings offer a diplomatic playbook. The German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, used his Oval Office audience this week to paper over differences on foreign policy and the war in Ukraine, sitting back as Trump criticised his one-time ally in Tesla boss, Elon Musk, as well as Germany's former leader Angela Merkel in a 30-minute rant to waiting media. Having prepared for the meeting by speaking with other world leaders about how to handle Trump one on one, Merz presented him with a gold-framed birth certificate of his grandfather, Friedrich Trump, who migrated from Germany to the US in 1885. The British prime minister, Keir Starmer, a friend of Albanese, performed similarly well back in February, taking an invitation from King Charles III for a state visit to the UK and eventually securing a tariff exemption through agreement on framework for a new trade deal. The visit is expected to take place in Scotland, the country of Trump's mother's birth and where he is planning to open a luxury golf course. The stakes are high for Albanese. Tariffs aside, the US is Australia's key defence and security partner and the personal relationship with the president is usually a key test of Australian prime ministers on the world stage. While Trump is disliked by many Australian voters – 64% of respondents to the Lowy Institute's annual poll in April said they didn't have faith in him to act responsibly – Albanese needs Trump to stick to the Aukus nuclear submarines agreement and to pushback on China's expansionist approach to the Indo-Pacific region. The same poll found 80% strongly want the US alliance to stay in place, evidence of Albanese's delicate balancing act – don't bow to Trump, but don't lose the US either. A dressing-down from a US president, even one not beloved by Australians, would probably play badly for a prime minister showing signs of growing confidence on the world stage. Even if he managed a successful visit with LBJ back in 1968, John Gorton returned to Australia exhausted and downcast. He said Johnson was too demanding in private and had failed to give any security guarantees on the situation in Asia. Like Gorton before him, Albanese might do well to stroke Trump's ego, remain a diplomatic small target and make it home in one piece.
