Rigetti vs. Quantum Computing: Which Quantum Stock Is a Smarter Bet?

Globe and Mail

29-07-2025

Quantum computing is no longer just a scientific experiment; it is shaping up to be the next frontier in real-world problem-solving. Companies like Rigetti Computing RGTI and Quantum Computing Inc. QUBT are leading that charge, but they are taking very different routes to get there. Rigetti is building universal quantum computers based on gate-based superconducting qubits, aiming for broad applicability across industries. Its focus is on developing scalable, modular systems that can handle increasingly complex workloads over time.
QUBT, on the other hand, is betting on photonic quantum technologies. The company is developing thin-film lithium niobate-based chips through its newly operational U.S.-based foundry and integrating those into compact systems like its Dirac-3 machine. QUBT's near-term focus lies in building practical, room-temperature quantum solutions tailored for optimization and machine learning tasks.
Both companies aim to push quantum technologies from labs into businesses. But their strategies, technical bets, and commercialization models reveal sharp differences. This faceoff explores Rigetti and QUBT across two key dimensions, technology and commercial execution strategies to help investors evaluate which quantum stock may offer a smarter long-term bet.
Price Performance of RGTI & QUBT
Shares of Rigetti have gained 2%, while QUBT stock has lost 2.4% in the year-to-date period.
Two Paths to Quantum Power: Superconducting Circuits vs Photonic Chips
Rigetti's technology is rooted in superconducting qubits, and its push for modular hardware design allows qubit systems to be built in scalable units. The company recently demonstrated 99.5% median two-qubit gate fidelity on its 36-qubit Ankaa-2 system—marking a significant leap in error reduction. Rigetti is doubling down on universal quantum computing, where gate-based architectures can, in theory, solve a wide range of problems beyond optimization. With its in-house chip fabrication and proprietary cloud platform (QCS), Rigetti is pursuing tight integration across the stack, aiming for speed, precision, and flexibility.
QUBT is charting a different course with quantum photonic chips built on thin-film lithium niobate (TFLN), a material prized for its speed and low energy loss. Unlike systems that need cryogenic cooling, QUBT's chips run at room temperature, offering advantages in cost, footprint and deployment ease. Its Dirac-series machines use photonic processors to target optimization and AI-heavy tasks. While not designed for universal quantum computing, QUBT's focus on domain-specific performance makes its approach more commercially practical in the near term. With its in-house foundry now operational, the company gains tighter control over development and faster iteration cycles.
From Lab to Market: Who's Closer to Real-World Traction?
Rigetti primarily earns revenues through government contracts and research partnerships, with the U.S. Department of Energy and DARPA among its key collaborators. While its current revenue base remains modest, Rigetti is focused on building long-term value by steadily improving system performance and integrating its quantum processors with cloud platforms. The launch of its Ankaa-2 system marked a key milestone, and the upcoming Lyra system—targeting over 300 qubits could open the door to broader enterprise experimentation. However, Rigetti's go-to-market strategy is still in the early innings, with commercial scalability hinging on hardware maturity and customer readiness.
Meanwhile, QUBT is pushing forward on commercialization with a product-first mindset. During the first quarter of 2025, the company completed construction of its photonic chip foundry in Tempe, AZ, and reported five initial purchase orders, ranging from a Canadian photonic design firm to a European technical university. In January, QUBT also formed a strategic collaboration with the Sanders Tri-Institutional Therapeutics Discovery Institute, giving the research group access to its Dirac-3 system for quantum-assisted drug discovery. Post-quarter, QUBT secured a $406,000 subcontract from NASA to apply its hardware to LIDAR data processing, and sold devices to Delft University and a major automotive manufacturer. These moves signal growing traction across multiple verticals, even as the company continues to build out its commercial pipeline.
The Road Ahead: Who's Better Positioned for Quantum Advantage?
Rigetti's roadmap features a 36-qubit system currently in development, followed by a greater than 100-qubit processor later this year and the 336-qubit Lyra system built on a modular, multi-chip architecture. This design allows qubit scaling without overhauling fabrication methods. A key part of Rigetti's strategy is its $250 million partnership with Quanta Computer, with $35 million already committed to expand chip production and cloud access via its QCS platform. Backed by in-house fabrication, developer outreach, and AI-assisted system calibration, Rigetti is steadily building toward utility-scale quantum computing.
QUBT is targeting near-term adoption through its photonic platform. Its Tempe-based thin-film lithium niobate foundry is now operational, supporting early chip orders and deployment of its Dirac-3 machines. Partnerships with Sanders TDI for drug discovery and the NASA subcontract for LIDAR processing highlight practical use cases. Instead of pursuing universal quantum computing upfront, QUBT is focused on optimization and AI tasks using room-temperature hardware—potentially enabling faster adoption across biotech, telecom, and logistics sectors.
How Do Zacks Estimates Compare for RGTI & QUBT?
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RGTI's 2025 sales implies a year-over-year decline of 18.63%. For 2025, the loss per share is projected to be 5 cents compared with 36 cents a year ago. The earnings estimates have been stable over the past 60 days.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for QUBT's 2025 sales and earnings implies year-over-year growth of 34.1% and 90.4%, respectively. The earnings estimates have been stable over the past 30 days.
RGTI or QUBT: Which Is a Better Pick?
RGTI and QUBT represent two divergent strategies in the quantum space—Rigetti is building toward universal, gate-based quantum computing, while QUBT is leveraging photonic hardware for near-term, application-specific use cases. Both companies currently hold a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a Value Score of 'F', suggesting investors are cautiously observing their next moves. Rigetti stands out with a Growth Score of 'B', supported by its technical roadmap and modular scalability goals. QUBT holds a Growth Score of 'C', reflecting its early commercial traction and foundry-led strategy. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
While Rigetti remains a promising deep-tech innovator with a clear focus on long-term breakthroughs through modular gate-based systems, QUBT's commercial traction, photonic chip foundry, and targeted application strategy offer a more immediate path to market adoption. With both companies holding a neutral Zacks Rank, investors may weigh Rigetti's advanced hardware ambitions against QUBT's pragmatic push for near-term utility.
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