China not likely to use navy to secure Hormuz Strait, analyst says
China is highly unlikely to use its navy to secure the vital
Strait of Hormuz if Iran threatens to close it as Middle East tensions rise, a top US analyst told reporters Monday.
Although China depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil, its approach would be shaped by quiet negotiations and self-interest, not direct military intervention, Richard Fontaine, chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, said.
He pointed to attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in the Red Sea last year, when Beijing reached an agreement with the group to spare Chinese-flagged vessels.
'China acted, but it just cut a separate deal with the Houthis,' Fontaine said. Its focus, he added, was 'protecting its own interests' rather than policing global waterways.
Play
Although about 16 per cent of China's seaborne crude came from Iran in early 2025, CNAS analysts said its approach would remain shaped by long-standing economic interests.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
South China Morning Post
16 minutes ago
- South China Morning Post
Hong Kong appeal court rejects early release for first security law challenger
The first person to mount a legal challenge against Hong Kong's domestic national security law has lost an appeal to overturn a decision barring his early release from prison. Advertisement The Court of Appeal ruled in a judgment delivered on Tuesday that the Correctional Services Department was not obliged to consider granting an early discharge to Adam Ma Chun-man after he was 'lawfully' sentenced to a term of imprisonment for inciting secession. The three presiding judges stressed that any sentencing reduction was discretionary and that denying a prisoner's early release would not violate his right to liberty. The court also rejected the appellant's contention that the definition of national security was 'inherently vague' and prone to 'subjective value judgment', saying a broad definition offered 'flexibility' to allow the notion to 'evolve with time and adapt to changing realities'. 'It is broadly framed for good reasons,' Chief Judge of the High Court Jeremy Poon Shiu-chor, the judgment's author, wrote. Advertisement 'Although it is broadly framed, the definition has a sufficiently and clearly formulated core to enable a person, with advice if necessary, to understand what national security covers and to regulate his conduct accordingly.'
South China Morning Post
24 minutes ago
- South China Morning Post
China, India agree to keep working on improving ties in high-level meeting
China and India affirmed their commitment to improving bilateral ties and maintaining border peace in a meeting on Monday between Ajit Doval, the Indian national security adviser, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing. Wang said bilateral relations had achieved some positive progress and it was essential for both sides to further enhance communication, build mutual trust, and work towards resolving practical issues, according to a readout from the Chinese foreign ministry. He called on both sides to stick to the consensus that they were 'each other's development opportunities, not threats' and 'partners, not rivals' to achieve a win-win outcome. 'Both sides must uphold the principle of good-neighbourly friendship, strive for mutual benefit, and demonstrate the historical wisdom of two great ancient civilisations by properly handling sensitive issues and maintaining peace and tranquillity in the border areas.' Wang added that Beijing and New Delhi should place greater focus on areas of cooperation and strengthen exchanges across various levels and fields. Doval is in China for a gathering of senior national security officials from member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a regional bloc that focuses on security. According to a New Delhi statement issued on Monday after the Wang-Doval meeting, both sides underscored the need to promote the overall development of India-China relations, including by fostering greater people-to-people ties.
South China Morning Post
24 minutes ago
- South China Morning Post
Australia faces a ‘guns or butter' problem: defence spending or social programmes?
Australia confronts a 'guns or butter' choice between a bigger defence budget and expanding national disability insurance and other social programmes, according to multinational banking and financial services company Rabobank, which calls for economic statecraft to navigate a risky regional security environment. For now, the government is opting for 'butter', but it retains substantial fiscal headroom to bolster military spending when compared to peer economies, Rabobank economist Benjamin Picton said in a research note on Tuesday. The nation's debt is lower than that of counterparts as a share of its gross domestic product. Australian officials have warned that the nation faces its most complex strategic circumstances since World War II. The government aims to pivot its military posture to deterrence, including via drones and missiles, to complement a planned fleet of nuclear-powered submarines due to be delivered in the 2030s under the Aukus deal. A Virginia-class nuclear-powered attack submarine of the type Australia is set to acquire from the early 2030s. Photo: US Navy But Canberra is caught between the expanding military footprint of China, which is also Australia's biggest trading partner, and its traditional US ally that is seeking to check Beijing's expansion in the Asia-Pacific. Picton pointed out the contradiction of Australia deepening military engagement with Washington via Aukus to deter China while trying to keep defence spending low enough to 'remain relatively inoffensive' to Beijing. 'This have-your-cake-and-eat-it-too approach carries risk that Australia will be forced into supporting US foreign policy interests against its own, while also being underprepared if a major conflict were to break out, or if the US were to revise its strategic doctrine in the Western Pacific,' Picton said. As a result, Australia faces higher defence, social programmes and debt servicing costs which may put pressure on long-dated government bonds, Picton said.
