China not likely to use navy to secure Hormuz Strait, analyst says
Strait of Hormuz if Iran threatens to close it as Middle East tensions rise, a top US analyst told reporters Monday.
Although China depends heavily on Middle Eastern oil, its approach would be shaped by quiet negotiations and self-interest, not direct military intervention, Richard Fontaine, chief executive of the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank, said.
He pointed to attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in the Red Sea last year, when Beijing reached an agreement with the group to spare Chinese-flagged vessels.
'China acted, but it just cut a separate deal with the Houthis,' Fontaine said. Its focus, he added, was 'protecting its own interests' rather than policing global waterways.
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Although about 16 per cent of China's seaborne crude came from Iran in early 2025, CNAS analysts said its approach would remain shaped by long-standing economic interests.
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