CPO prices expected to trade between RM4,100–RM4,300 in coming weeks
This comes as Malaysia's palm oil stockpile rose to an 18-month high of 2.03 million tonnes in June, driven by a 10.5 per cent month-on-month drop in exports, which fell to 1.26 million tonnes.
Despite the monthly decline, June's export volume remained higher year-on-year, surpassing figures from June 2022 to 2024.
India's palm oil imports from Malaysia have remained above 250,000 tonnes in both May and June, a trend MPOC expects to continue into the third quarter (Q3) as buyers restock ahead of the Diwali festival in October.
"In Q3, India is projected to import around 2.9 million tonnes of palm oil to meet festive season demand. This firm buying interest will continue to support palm oil prices," the council said.
In the first half of 2025, Kenya emerged as Malaysia's second-largest palm oil buyer, overtaking the EU27 and China.
The country accounted for 30 per cent of Malaysia's palm oil exports to Sub-Saharan Africa, with full-year imports expected to reach 1.3 million tonnes.
MPOC said over 90 per cent of Kenya's palm oil imports are used domestically for food purposes.
On the global front, vegetable oil prices have rebounded, led by soybean oil, which has climbed 19 per cent since January.
This outpaced gains in rapeseed oil (+6.6 per cent) and palm oil (+3.7 per cent), while sunflower oil posted a modest 1.7 per cent increase.
The rebound in soybean oil is underpinned by the United States' mid-June biofuel policy, which is set to boost domestic feedstock demand.
"According to the latest US Department of Agriculture projections, soybean oil use for biodiesel in the US is forecast to rise by 17 per cent, from six million tonnes in 2024 to seven million tonnes in 2026.
"For the first time, more than 50 per cent of US soybean oil production is expected to be directed into biodiesel," it said.
MPOC said revised US tax credit policies that favour North American feedstocks are also expected to keep US soybean oil and Canadian canola oil prices elevated relative to other vegetable oils.
However, the council cautioned that further rallies in vegetable oil prices may be limited by abundant global oilseed supply, particularly soybeans.
It said South American soybean production is expected to grow by eight million tonnes in 2026, reaching 245 million tonnes, while US soybean inventories are projected to double from 2023 levels due to lower exports to China and high carry-over stocks.
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