Nothing boring about it: Unpredictable women's NCAA Tournament is another boost

New York Times

21-03-2025

For years, the knock on the women's NCAA Tournament was that it was too predictable, too top-heavy. Why watch when you know what's going to happen? That's boring, right? It doesn't make for compelling viewing, OK?
Ten women's hoops programs have capped undefeated seasons with a national championship, most recently, South Carolina last season. UConn won 111 straight games, and that was after the Huskies and Lady Vols jockeyed for dominance in the 2000s. Remember that? Remember how that was bad for women's college basketball? How a foregone conclusion to a national title matchup or Final Four pairing was somehow a reason not to watch or care?
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Though Vegas might have oddsmakers who say the women's and men's tournament is equally chalky this season, it seems — for maybe the first time — there's more uncertainty about which two or three teams might be in the national title game, and which collection of teams might make up the Final Four and Elite Eight on the women's side than the men's.
This season, there's no obvious favorite, no team (or, even three teams, ahem) that seems to be head and shoulders above the rest. Sure, the idea of 15 or 14 seeds advancing to the second round doesn't feel overly likely, but I also wouldn't fault anyone entirely if their bracket has No. 14 seeds Oregon State over UNC or Florida Gulf Coast moving past Oklahoma State in the first round. Considering the first two rounds are still played at home sites for the women, it seems less probable than if it were played at a neutral site, but still, as one famous, albeit fictitious, coach (who has been spotted courtside at many a women's basketball games) once said: BELIEVE.
It's March, the greatest month on the calendar.
Which women's teams have the best chance at cutting down the net? pic.twitter.com/2WEeMlx8Ud
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) March 18, 2025
To spot this growing parity, look no further than the opening game of the 2025 NCAA Tournament, a play-in game for a No. 11 seed. In an ultimate game of runs, Princeton and Iowa State traded blows in the second and third quarters to make it a game. Yes, Princeton. The program that doesn't give out athletic scholarships and whose league landed more teams in the tournament field than any other non-power conference. You know, Ivy League dominance.
And that Iowa State team? Yes, that was also that program that, as a No. 7 seed last season (with its core cast returning), pushed Stanford to overtime in the second round (on the Cardinal's home court, no less) nearly ending the college careers of Cameron Brink and Tara VanDerveer in one fell swoop. These crumbs of parity have been laid on the trail for a while now for anyone paying attention.
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UCLA got the No. 1 overall seed, but South Carolina argued it had a case. (It did, albeit with counterpoints as well.)
'We have a lot of teams that can make a really good case for No. 1,' Close said after the Bruins beat the Gamecocks earlier this season. 'I think that's a great testament to our game. There's a lot more parity than there used to be.'
After the selection show, USC coach Lindsay Gottlieb said she never thought she'd feel 'disrespected' after garnering a No. 1 spot, which, she did when the Big Ten regular season champion Trojans drew the fourth No. 1 seed and a road to Tampa that's line with hazards and potholes. UConn coach Geno Auriemma, whose Huskies drew a No. 2 seed (in USC's region) didn't sound surprised with the way the chips fell, sending the Huskies out West yet again for regionals for the third straight season. UConn garnered that No. 2 seed despite a No. 1 overall NET ranking and delivering a convincing February win at South Carolina, a place no opponent had won since 2020.
No. 1 seed Texas sits in a region alongside: upstart TCU, a No. 2 seed that has been turned around almost entirely by veteran transfers; No. 5 seed Tennessee, an SEC foe the Longhorns beat by just four this season; and Notre Dame, a team that dropped to the No. 3 seed-line after spending 11 weeks in the AP top three and a week at No. 1. In a tournament where elite guard play can be decisive in advancement to the Final Four, the Irish boast two of the nation's best backcourt players in Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles (assuming you look beyond the Irish's recent skid).
'Stars are going to emerge — that's what you're going to see,' Notre Dame coach Niele Ivey said. 'You have some sleeper teams. But this is the moment where big players, big stage, they emerge. So, I'm excited to see that from my team, but also, I'm excited for this women's tournament because it's going to be really fun.'
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This parity in women's college hoops — a sport where 'sleeper teams' didn't always seemingly exist — is the natural byproduct of the game's evolution, not just more investment at the college and grassroots levels but of the changing landscape of college sports.
The transfer portal has given rise to massive player movement. There isn't a contender in the field without at least one (or several) starters or stars who came from the portal. (In the case of TCU's Hailey Van Lith, she previously played at Louisville and LSU). Conference realignment has played its part, too. The disbandment of the Pac-12 and some members being absorbed into mid-major conferences has had a ripple effect as former Oregon State Beavers swam upstream — Oklahoma's Final Four chances grew 10-fold when 6-foot-4 center Raegan Beers joined; USC buoyed its backcourt with the addition of guard Talia von Oelhoffen; UCLA added a unicorn in 6-4 forward Timea Gardiner (who leads the Bruins in 3-point percentage); and TCU added defensive ace Donovyn Hunter to its starting five.
'The landscape has started to change, and now certainly, in the era of NIL and the portal, players have more opportunities to go to more places and feel like they can be successful,' Auriemma said. 'There are a lot more really, really, really good teams than there have been in a long time. Super teams, great teams? Maybe not as many of those, but certainly a lot more really good teams that would make for a truly interesting NCAA Tournament.'
Some of the parity on the floor emanates from teams whose players have excelled the old-fashioned way — as it can be called now — by staying four seasons (or maybe five) at a single school. UConn's Paige Bueckers has fought through injuries to get to her fifth season, and what is seemingly her last, to bring the Huskies back to the hallowed ground of hoops. Kansas State's Ayoka Lee, another fifth-year player, completely changes the complexion of USC and UConn's region in Spokane if she's healthy enough to play. Though she has played fewer than 20 games this season, at 6-7, she's a dangerous force alongside senior guard Serena Sundell, who leads all power conference players in assists per game.
L.A. native JuJu Watkins made the uncommon decision as the nation's top recruit to stay home at USC — a program that hadn't been nationally relevant in her lifetime — with the hopes of returning the prestige once delivered from Cheryl Miller, another famous Californian. Similarly, Mikayla Blakes — a top-10 recruit in the 2025 class — opted for Vanderbilt, a total sleeper not just in college hoops, but in the SEC. The Commodores are now a No. 7 seed in South Carolina's Birmingham region behind the freshman's high-powered scoring, which could stand in the way of Duke and North Carolina.
And still we haven't yet mentioned NC State (whose upset of Notre Dame started a skid) or LSU, one of the last non-No. 1 seeds to win the national title (the Tigers were a No. 3 seed when they took the crown over Iowa in 2023).
All of these teams, all of these players, all of these coaches have seen the game change. It was never boring (even if it might've felt like a foregone conclusion) before, but the uncertainty and open-endedness of this March raised by this parity has changed and elevated the game in a new way.
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'There's no easy bracket,' Auriemma said. 'There's no one bracket that's harder than the others. There's no easy matchups. There's no 'somebody's got a tough road, somebody's got an easy road.''
One thing is certain: The road is there for more teams than there ever has been.