29-04-2025
Data shows shift in views towards Australia's relationship with the United States and China
After three years of conflict, leadership changes and now trade wars, the views of many Australians towards the United States and China are shifting, Vote Compass data shows.
About 47 per cent of Vote Compass respondents believe Australia should be less close to the US, about a third believe the relationship should stay the same and just over 17 per cent want it to be closer.
In March, a poll by the Lowy Institute found Australians' trust in the US to act responsibly had dropped since Donald Trump's return to the White House, down 20 points compared to last year, to 36 per cent.
Despite this, the poll found 80 per cent said the alliance with the United States was very or fairly important for Australia's security.
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United States Studies Centre director of research Jared Mondschein said while polling indicated most Australians don't like Mr Trump, many support the alliance continuing.
"I think that Australians really do see that the alliance is more than just the president, more than just one person, and it actually has implications for a broader array of issues," he said.
Dr Mondschein said polling showed Australians felt more comfortable with the relationship with the US than China, despite "unprecedented uncertainty" in the US.
Jared Mondschein said Australia has never been more consequential or influential in Washington, including in this Trump administration.
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When it comes to Australia's relationship with China, Vote Compass data shows respondents are split.
About 32 per cent of respondents said Australia should deepen its ties with China, while about 34 per cent disagreed and about 30 per cent said they are neutral.
James Laurenceson, who is the director of the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) at the University of Technology Sydney, said the data suggested Australians understood the complexity of the relationship with China.
Last year, a poll conducted by the institute found 61 per cent of Australians believed in building a strong relationship with China.
The ACRI found 64 per cent of respondents expressed concerns about Australia's relationship with China — a 10-point drop from 2021.
"They recognise the benefits, including jobs for Australians. I think that nuance is well appreciated by the Australian public," Professor Laurenceson said.
James Laurenceson believes there is a lack of deep understanding about the Australia-China relationship.
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However, Professor Laurenceson said he believed generally there was a lack of "deep understanding".
"And simply, when you don't understand something particularly well, it's easy to be fearful," he said.
"On the other hand, when it comes to America, our news is full of American sources, we actually feel quite comfortable with that system, even if we don't always like the decision coming out of the White House.
"We understand it, but that's not true when it comes to China."
In 2023, Anthony Albanese met with Xi Jinping in Beijing, which was the first visit to mainland China by a leader in seven years.
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AAP: Lukas Coch
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The ACRI poll found 61 per cent said Australia can enjoy a good relationship with both China and the US at the same time, while 38 per cent believed Australia's relationship with China weakens our alliance with the US.
Dr Mondschein said Australia and the US were working more closely in the Indo-Pacific region and the views towards China have become more aligned between the US and its allies and partners.
He said the US and its allies were also increasingly aligned on the importance of working together to face the challenge of China.
Data shows support for extra defence spending
Last week, the Coalition pledged to
It would increase overall defence spending to 2.5 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) over the next five years, which is more ambitious than Labor's eight-year plan to lift defence spending to 2.3 per cent of GDP by 2033.
Last week, Peter Dutton announced the Coalition would spend an additional $21 billion on the military if elected on May 3.
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ABC News: Ian Cutmore
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Vote Compass data shows 52.9 per cent of respondents believe Australia should spend much or somewhat more on its military.
This is up 11 percentage points from 2022 when 41.9 per cent said the government should spend more on defence.
Dr Mondschein said given China's nuclear capacity and navy fleet had grown it was understandable Australia had changed its perception of what was required in the region.
However, a survey of 1,500 Australians in February and April for the War Studies Research Group at UNSW Canberra
found one third of respondents thought more money should be spent on defence, and the majority felt current spending was appropriate.
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UNSW Canberra's Richard Dunley said while the survey showed there was good support for the Australian Defence Force generally and reasonable support for its growth, that dropped when respondents were asked whether more money should be spent.
"I think that you're definitely seeing both political parties here being kind of ahead of public opinion, or sort of pushing back against that kind of sentiment," he said.
Vote Compass data shows 78 per cent of respondents intending to vote for the Coalition believe more should be spent on the military compared to 47 per cent of support among those voting for Labor.
Dr Dunley said the UNSW survey showed support for an increase in defence spending was lowest among those aged 18 to 29, which may be on account of other pressures, including the cost of living.
"I think there's clearly been an effort to try and refocus on national security," he said.
"I just don't think that, from what we've seen in terms of these numbers, that is necessarily going to cut through with the electorate this time around."
Vote Compass is an educational tool designed to promote electoral literacy and civic engagement. While not a conventional public opinion poll, Vote Compass responses can be analysed using statistical methods similar to those used in polling to try to adjust for sampling bias.
Responses have been weighted by gender, age, education, language, religion, place of residence and past vote to account for the selection effects of the sample, enabling us to make statistical inferences about the Australian population.
